Five Canadians Face Tricky Paths at Australian Open: Draw Analysis

The primary Grand Slam occasion of 2025 is already upon us. On Thursday afternoon in Melbourne, the draw for the 2025 Australian Open was made, with the 5 Canadians in the principle draw studying their paths. 

Leylah Annie Fernandez and Rebecca Marino will characterize Canada within the ladies’s singles draw, whereas Félix Auger-Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov, and Gabriel Diallo are within the males’s singles competitors. All 5 Canadians acquired direct entry into the principle draw. 

Fernandez has arguably probably the most easy draw of the 5 Canadians as she is not going to face a participant with a double-digit rating till a minimum of the third spherical. Seeded thirtieth, she opens towards Yuliia Starodubsteva of Ukraine, who’s presently ranked No. 100. She would then face both Cristina Busca (No. 101) or wildcard Chloe Pacquet (No. 123) in spherical two. 

That’s the place the depth would ramp up severely as Fernandez is projected to fulfill one of many title favourites, world No. 3 Coco Gauff, within the third spherical. Gauff simply beat Fernandez within the opening week of the season on the United Cup in straight units.  

Even when she pulls the upset, the street is not going to get any simpler for the Canadian because the second quarter of the draw the place she finds herself is likely one of the hardest. Potential round-four opponents embrace Karolina Muchova, Noami Osaka, Caroline Garcia, Belinda Bencic, and Jelena Ostapenko. Fernandez has by no means made it previous the second spherical of the Australian Open in 5 appearances.  

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Marino bought direct entry into the draw after some late withdrawals. That’s the place her luck ended as she drew No. 22 seed Katie Boulter of Nice Britain within the first spherical. The Brit has gained each of their earlier conferences in straight units, together with final yr on grass in Nottingham.  

Had been she to tug the upset, Marino would face both Veronika Kudermetova or Olivia Gadecki within the second spherical. fifteenth seed Beatriz Haddad Maia is her projected third-round opponent, adopted by No. 4 Jasmine Paolini within the fourth spherical. The Canadian can be making her eighth look in the principle draw of the Australian Open, her most at any main. She has a 2-7 file, twice having reached the second spherical. 

On the lads’s aspect, Auger-Aliassime is the lone seeded Canadian within the singles draw at No. 29. He’ll face Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff within the first spherical. The pair have break up their earlier 4 conferences, though the Canadian leads 2-1 on laborious courts. Struff gained their most up-to-date assembly final yr in Munich, nevertheless it was on clay. 

The draw is sort of tough for the Montrealer. If he beats Struff, he would face both veteran Alejandro Davidovich Fokina or upcomer Juncheng Shang in spherical two.  

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No. 6 seed Casper Ruud is the primary potential seeded opponent for Auger-Aliassime within the third spherical. The Canadian leads their head-to-head 4-3, having gained all three of their conferences in 2024. Their final match-up was a demolition by Auger-Aliassime in Cincinnati the place he misplaced simply 4 video games.  

Tommy Paul, who Auger-Aliassime is going through this week within the semifinals of Adelaide, is his projected fourth-round opponent, adopted by second-seed Alexander Zverev within the quarter-finals. The Canadian has reached a minimum of the third spherical in 4 straight appearances on the Australian Open, along with his finest end result coming in 2022 the place he reached the quarter-finals and led Daniil Medvedev two units to like, even holding match level within the fourth set earlier than the eventual runner-up mounted a comeback. 

Shapovalov will open towards Roberto Bautista Agut. The Canadian has gained all three earlier conferences in straight units, together with two on laborious courts final yr in Washington and Basel.  

A victory may arrange a second-round conflict with No. 16 seed Lorenzo Musetti. Additionally looming in Shapovalov’s part are American stars Ben Shelton (spherical three) and Taylor Fritz (spherical 4). The 25-year-old has solely made it previous the third spherical in Melbourne as soon as, reaching the 2022 quarter-finals the place he took the eventual champion Rafael Nadal to 5 units. 

Diallo can be making his third look in a Grand Slam singles major draw and first on the Australian Open. Additionally it is his first time collaborating at a serious with out having to undergo qualifying, incomes direct entry after his sturdy end to 2024, together with his breakthrough run at a serious when he reached the third spherical of the US Open, bolstered his rating. 

In Melbourne, he’ll open his marketing campaign towards Italy’s Luca Nardi, who famously upset Novak Djokovic final yr in Indian Wells. It will likely be their first assembly, but when Diallo is victorious, he may renew hostilities with a well-recognized foe, Karen Khachanov. The 2 males met twice in 2024, with the 28-year-old profitable each instances: in Diallo’s hometown of Montreal on the Nationwide Financial institution Open and within the Canadian’s first ATP Tour ultimate in Almaty, Kazakhstan. 

If Diallo lastly scores the win, he faces a possible gauntlet of No. 11 seed and former Australian Open runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas within the third spherical, house favorite and No. 8 seed Alex de Minaur in spherical 4, and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner within the quarter-finals.  

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All three Canadian males managed to keep away from the quarter of loss of life, the third quarter of the draw, which options each 10-time champion Novak Djokovic and four-time main champion Carlos Alcaraz. Auger-Aliassime may meet considered one of them within the semifinals as he’s the lone Canadian within the backside half of the draw. 

Two Canadians, Marina Stakusic and Alexis Galarneau, competed in singles qualifying however each misplaced their first-round matches.  

The doubles draw can be made on Saturday.  

Tickets for the Davis Cup Qualifiers 1st Spherical tie between Canada and Hungary are actually on sale. Be part of us February 1 and a couple of at IGA Stadium in Montreal, because the Canadian workforce begins their quest for the 2025 Davis Cup Closing 8. To entry tickets at early-bird pricing, click on right here.