The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at the moment are 5-5 after Week 11’s bitter 22-19 street loss to the Denver Broncos.
Seven video games stay within the staff’s 2025 schedule. On Sunday, Kansas Metropolis will host the Indianapolis Colts at GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium, play the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving night, return house for matchups with the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers, journey to Nashville to face the Tennessee Titans, return house for his or her last regular-season house sport towards the Broncos and shut out the season at Allegiant Stadium towards the Las Vegas Raiders.
Let’s check out the staff’s present playoff image. As we all the time do, we’ll use The Athletic’s playoff calculator — an replace to the New York Instances playoff calculator we’ve used for a number of years — to assist us challenge what might occur. You possibly can study extra about the way it works by clicking right here.
The Chiefs’ playoff image
Because it stands proper now, Kansas Metropolis has a 57% probability to make the playoffs (down from 75% per week in the past), a ten% probability to win the AFC West (25% final week), lower than a 1% probability to earn the AFC’s single bye (down from 4%), and a 4% probability to win Tremendous Bowl LX (down from 7%).
One week in the past, these numbers weren’t encouraging. However Sunday’s loss has pushed them down the mountainside. Whereas the staff nonetheless has a better-than-even probability to make the postseason, the Chiefs’ alternative to assert a Tenth-straight AFC West title is on life help — and so they can just about kiss the No. 1 seed goodbye.
Kansas Metropolis was not solely unable to assist itself over the weekend, but additionally had no help from every other staff. If the season ended as we speak, the Chiefs could be within the AFC’s ninth spot; simply seven qualify for the playoffs. In Week 11, solely one of many eight groups forward of Kansas Metropolis — the Chargers — had the courtesy to lose a sport. Sadly, they misplaced to a different staff in entrance of the Chiefs: the Jacksonville Jaguars.
And oh, sure… the Colts didn’t win, both — however that was as a result of they had been on their bye week.
The playoff calculator permits us to imagine the outcomes of remaining video games and see the way it modifications the percentages.
How the Chiefs could make the playoffs
Sure… Kansas Metropolis continues to be in command of making the dance. Successful all of its remaining video games will give the staff a playoff berth. Dropping their matchups with both the Colts or the Cowboys solely causes the Chiefs to overlook the postseason in about 1% of circumstances. Dropping one sport to every other AFC staff would make Kansas Metropolis miss the playoffs in not more than 6% of all eventualities.
Dropping two video games makes it harder to make the postseason — however not not possible. Dropping video games to Indianapolis and Dallas would give the Chiefs a couple of three-in-four shot on the playoffs — however most different units of two losses would give Kansas Metropolis one thing round a 50/50 alternative to make the dance.
How the Chiefs can win the AFC West
The staff not controls its personal future within the division race. However successful out would give Kansas Metropolis a 57% probability to win its Tenth straight division title. On high of that 7-0 end, the Chiefs would wish the Chargers to lose not solely to the Chiefs in Week 15, but additionally drop a matchup to both the Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, Texans or Broncos. Then Denver must lose to Kansas Metropolis of their Week 17 rematch — and have two losses amongst their video games with the Commanders, Raiders, Packers, Jaguars or Chargers.
As you’ll be able to see, that’s not not possible. Nevertheless it’s not terribly possible, both — which is why successful out solely offers Kansas Metropolis a couple of three-in-five probability to take the division. Each Los Angeles and Denver can have byes in Week 12, so we’ll have to attend per week earlier than both staff may give the Chiefs any respiration room.
How the Chiefs can get a first-round bye
An excessive amount of has gone improper. If the staff makes the playoffs, it can nearly definitely need to play within the Wild Card spherical. Even when Kansas Metropolis wins out, there’s solely a couple of 1-in-25 probability it can maintain the No. 1 seed.
The Chiefs’ postseason likelihood is wanting an increasing number of grim. However the staff could make the playoffs with none outdoors assist — and caring for its personal enterprise would give it a good probability to as soon as once more win the division. However that’s the issue: within the final two weeks, it hasn’t been straightforward for Kansas Metropolis to care for enterprise.
