NFL Week 10: Brian Daboll, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. lessons

Week 10 is within the books! Popping out of Sunday, there was quite a bit to speak about already. Upsets in Miami and Carolina, dominance from Seattle and Detroit, picture finishes in Chicago and Houston. The column was already packed to the brim … after which the Giants fired coach Brian Daboll after 61 video games on the helm.

Daboll’s Giants are 2-8 for the third consecutive season and finish 20-40-1 beneath his tenure — a win share of 32.7%. That merely will not minimize the mustard, and I’ve little interest in making excuses for it. However probably the most fascinating headline to return out of Daboll’s firing is that basic supervisor Joe Schoen, who was employed with Daboll, just isn’t solely retaining his job — he’ll be main the seek for Daboll’s substitute.

Extra on that dynamic, and the remainder of the NFL’s eventful Week 10, under. Each Tuesday, I will spin the earlier week of NFL motion ahead, what the largest storylines imply and what comes subsequent. We’ll search measured reactions to everybody’s overreactions, rejoice the thrilling stuff that no one is appreciating and spotlight what you might need missed Sunday and Monday. There will probably be movie. There will probably be stats (a complete part of them). And there will probably be enjoyable.

Bounce to a piece:Huge Factor: 2024 QB class separationWhy did not these strikes occur at deadline?Second Take: Brian Daboll out in New YorkMailbag: Answering questions from … youNext Ben Stats: Wild Week 10 statsMonday Night time Monotony: Packers at crossroads

The Huge Factor: The 2024 quarterback class is what we thought it was

Each week, this column will kick off with one huge take a look at a key sport, participant or pattern from the earlier slate of NFL motion. What does it imply for the remainder of the season? This week, we’re wanting on the 2024 quarterback draft class a season and a half in.

Let’s roll the clock again to the morning of April 25, 2024. A whole bunch of hundreds are descending on Detroit, the place the Lions are internet hosting the largest draft in historical past. The division-rival Bears are about to usher in a brand new, aggressive period of Chicago soccer (no, actually, the Bears meant it this time) by drafting USC celebrity Caleb Williams with the primary choose. The equally listless Commanders will virtually definitely make LSU QB Jayden Daniels the second choose, and after that … it is in all probability North Carolina QB Drake Maye at No. 3 to the Patriots.

Behind the cemented high three, there’s nonetheless loads of buzz. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy has an out of doors shot to unseat Maye as QB3, and if he does not, he’ll nonetheless definitely go early within the first spherical. However to whom, and at which choose?

McCarthy is not the one quarterback sneaking into the first-round dialog, both. As Adam Schefter wrote in his draft pocket book simply days earlier than the draft:

“One NFL basic supervisor stated he believes “there’s an undercurrent of help for Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix,” though his staff does not have a first-round grade on both. This specific basic supervisor stated he believes each Penix and Nix are Day 2 picks. Some groups disagree, and there now could be hypothesis Penix might go as excessive as No. 8 to the Falcons.”

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The hypothesis proved correct. The Falcons shocked the NFL neighborhood once they made Penix QB4 off the board over McCarthy, drafting him with the eighth choose regardless of the four-year, $180 million contract they’d simply given free agent Kirk Cousins. Draft pundits and followers barely had time to get off the mat earlier than the second punch landed: After McCarthy went to the Vikings with the tenth choose, the Broncos drafted Nix — the sixth quarterback of the primary spherical! — with the twelfth choice.

Nix turned the earliest-drafted QB6 in any NFL draft. The earlier document was held by Richie Petitbon, the twenty first choose within the 1959 draft. Within the widespread draft period (since 1967), the earliest-drafted QB6 was twenty seventh in 1983 — a gunslinger out of Pitt named Dan Marino.

Nix wasn’t the one quarterback to plant a brand new flag. McCarthy turned the earliest-drafted QB5 in NFL historical past; Penix, the earliest-drafted QB4. For the second time ever, six quarterbacks went off the board within the first spherical; for the primary time, all six had been within the high half of the primary spherical.

It is vital to recollect the place the consensus was earlier than the chips fell that night time. Returning to what the final supervisor informed Schefter: His staff did not have a first-round grade on both Penix or Nix, and he seen them as Day 2 picks. Even supposing Penix and Nix had been largely thought-about Day 2 picks till draft day, Falcons and Broncos followers had no hassle manufacturing perception of their new passers. Nationwide draft protection definitely fanned these flames, as did team-authored spin cycles. And all of the whereas, Vikings followers might sit within the center and marvel on the steal of the draft, getting McCarthy at QB5 whereas barely buying and selling up.

That is what the draft is for, after all: rampant, unchecked perception. The shining promise of a brand new day.

However outlooks don’t remain sunny ceaselessly. The Tuesday after Week 10 a yr and a half later? That is for chilly actuality and tough truths.

Penix, Nix and McCarthy are all struggling of their sophomore seasons. For McCarthy, the difficulties are extra excusable. In solely his fourth profession begin, McCarthy as soon as once more appeared snug on script however rapidly spiraled uncontrolled because the coaching wheels left the offense. On the season, McCarthy averages 0.18 EPA per dropback on the primary two drives of video games — drives that we are able to confidently say are scripted — and minus-0.03 on all different drives. His success fee drops from 47% to 35%.

I’ve little interest in writing something concrete about McCarthy, as I wrote final week after the Vikings’ win over the Lions. He merely has not performed sufficient soccer. The product up to now is worrisome — excessive sack fee, excessive interception fee and a prolonged time to throw are all indicators of a younger passer overwhelmed by NFL pace. Of the six quarterbacks taken within the first spherical of the 2024 class, none has had a stretch as statistically poor or as visibly regarding as McCarthy’s 2025 season. However we’ll tread water on McCarthy for now.

We’ve got a bigger physique of labor on Penix. He began his eleventh sport Sunday morning in Berlin, and it was one of many worst of his profession. Penix had a 3.49-second time to throw and accomplished solely 42.9% of his passes — each career-worst marks. Sometimes, a quarterback holding the ball for that lengthy rips off a number of scrambles, however Penix by no means crossed the road of scrimmage in opposition to Indianapolis and stays one of many least-impactful scramblers in a league more and more embracing the quarterback run.

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It is OK to not be a scrambler … however not with the 32.0% inaccurate throw fee Penix had in opposition to the Colts. That is too many performs which are useless within the water. Amongst 43 quarterbacks with 200 dropbacks because the begin of final season, Penix is forty first in completion share and forty second in off-target fee. The ball merely is not catchable usually sufficient.

In fact, Penix is trying tougher passes than many quarterbacks. In the identical timeframe, he is second in air yards per try (8.9). However deep passes do not all the time indicate tight home windows. In his profession, Penix is throwing into tight home windows on 14.2% of his move makes an attempt, and his targets have a mean separation of three.3 yards. The league-average marks are 14.8% and three.5 yards, respectively.

This towering off-target fee, coupled with the downfield aggression, creates the massive swings in Penix’s drive-to-drive efficiency. Penix both connects on a few large passes and will get into scoring place quick, or misses on one and will get caught behind the sticks on third-and-long. These clear passing downs let defensive coordinators get into designer seems that drive him to course of after the snap. On eight third- and fourth-down dropbacks in opposition to the Colts, Penix had one completion for minus-4 yards.

A lot of the offense has disintegrated round Penix. The working sport, which was speculated to be the engine of this staff, has sputtered in current weeks — although it awakened in opposition to the Colts. Accidents to the Falcons’ offensive line have muddied Penix’s pockets, and Atlanta’s receiver depth has been examined. The offensive design, which has acquired a lot warmth for its overreliance on shotgun and pistol alignments and lack of play-action passing, continues to confound many — myself included.

However Penix merely hasn’t appeared like an eighth general choose. Sure, he can throw the ball with spectacular velocity — arm energy is his cardinal trait, and a participant along with his velocity and launch pace could have a spot within the NFL for some time. However he does not transfer a lot and is without doubt one of the league’s worst quarterbacks when pressured. He does not make quick selections within the pocket, both, which makes him notably shaky in opposition to the blitz — twenty seventh amongst 33 quarterbacks this season in dropback success fee when blitzed. And so far, he does not have NFL-caliber accuracy.

Penix’s runway nonetheless has some room on it; once more, we have seen solely 11 profession begins, and there are severe complaints with the offense round him that justify some endurance. With Nix, we have seen 28 begins — a a lot bigger pattern.

The Broncos are within the thick of a seven-game successful streak with an infinite contest in opposition to the Chiefs upcoming, and Nix will get some credit score for that run. He was nails late in opposition to the Eagles and Giants in come-from-behind victories, and whereas his play in opposition to the Texans, Jets and Raiders was removed from inspiring, his willingness to examine down into constructive positive aspects and talent to keep away from sacks retains the Broncos’ offense on schedule. Nix is taking a sack on solely 2.7% of his dropbacks this season — lowest amongst all passers — and the ball is popping out quick. Nix is averaging 2.8 seconds to throw, down from final season’s 3.0 seconds and the sixth-quickest quantity this season.

Nevertheless it looks as if Nix is enjoying a lot worse soccer than he was final season although his numbers are roughly comparable. Yards per dropback have fallen solely from 6.16 to five.94; success fee has fallen solely from 44.1% to 42.9%. EPA per dropback is up! It was 0.10 as a rookie, and it is 0.11 this season.

However Nix’s numbers final season had been additionally fooling us a bit. As I wrote after Week 11 in 2024, Nix’s stats had been extremely inflated by his efficiency in blowouts — snaps wherein the Broncos both had a win likelihood above 95% or under 5%. In an effort to construct Nix’s confidence after a shaky September, Sean Payton was giving his younger quarterback reps in practically meaningless sport states.

In fact, we all know we won’t name these snaps completely meaningless. Nix and the Broncos had been effectively under 5% win likelihood for stretches in opposition to the Giants, and because of his efforts, they ended up successful.

However as soon as once more, we see a big distinction in Nix’s manufacturing in a impartial sport state versus a lopsided one. Nix has 56 dropbacks in blowout states this season. Some got here in opposition to the Giants, however a lot extra got here from wins in opposition to Dallas, Cincinnati and Tennessee. Nix has a dropback success fee of 48.8% and a first-down/landing fee of 41.5% on these dropbacks. In impartial states, these numbers drop to 43.1% and 29%, respectively.

This cut up is important as a result of it’s intuitive. Nix walked into the league as a risk-averse quarterback who most popular the throwaway to the contested move and the tuck-and-run to the extend-and-attack. He has turn into solely extra cautious over time, because the Broncos’ teaching employees has clearly careworn to him that the staff can win video games when he avoids errors. On early downs this season, Nix is backside 5 in just about each metric we have now, together with yards per try, yards per dropback, explosive move fee, completion share, dropback success fee, first down/landing fee and time to throw.

His numbers leap on late downs. There, he’s seventh in explosive move fee and thirteenth in EPA per dropback. His air yards per try go from twenty third (6.8) to fourth (9.9). The shackles on his play are loosened by the calls for of a late down, and all of the sudden, the offense can discover extra explosive performs.

Ought to Nix and the Broncos embrace a extra formidable strategy on early downs? Not so quick, my good friend. Nix remains to be twenty eighth in off-target fee and twenty ninth in completion share over expectation on these late-down throws, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. Identical to final season, Nix’s accuracy tails off tremendously when he is compelled to place further velocity on the soccer. On throws of 10 or extra air yards, his off-target fee is useless final amongst all quarterbacks over the previous two seasons mixed. For all his danger aversion, Nix has 17 interceptions on throws 10-plus yards downfield, tied with Geno Smith for probably the most within the NFL. That is the difficulty with vital accuracy drain within the deeper areas of the sphere — the protection has time to regulate to the dangerous soccer.

There are, after all, flashes of excellence that belie Nix’s downfield play — everybody remembers the deep ball to Marvin Mims Jr. in opposition to the Bengals final season, or the opening landing in opposition to the Payments within the wild-card spherical. However a number of good throws don’t make a downfield passer. Broncos followers would possibly bemoan the offensive system, however it’s the just one wherein a quarterback like Nix is viable.

In moments of abandon, when all hope is seemingly misplaced for both staff — the Broncos or their opponents — Nix shines. He both takes what a mega-cautious protection provides him because it protects its lead, or he dupes a mega-aggressive protection trying to cease the run in any respect prices. However in moments of want on lengthy and late downs or pushing the ball downfield, Nix dulls.

Whereas Penix seems inconsistent on a snap-to-snap foundation, Nix is extra inconsistent on a game-to-game foundation. With Payton on the helm, Nix is greater than able to managing a well-coached offense in opposition to poor defenses. There may be a lot to be stated for a younger passer who is aware of the way to keep away from large negatives and maintain the offense on schedule; it is a lesson that first-rounders similar to Anthony Richardson Sr. and Justin Fields would have performed effectively to be taught early of their careers.

However the challenge with competent sport administration is that it mustn’t value the twelfth choose within the NFL draft. And from the seems of it, Penix’s erratic play and want for severe growth, whereas not completely hopeless, mustn’t have value the eighth choose. We won’t even start to contemplate the ramifications of McCarthy’s play and the price of the tenth choose.

Distinction this second tier of sophomore quarterbacks with the highest tier: Williams, Daniels and Maye. Daniels was enduring a tough second season earlier than his elbow harm, however his 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Yr marketing campaign speaks for itself. Maye, who had a quietly wonderful rookie season, now leads the sphere in MVP odds. Williams, who has been far rockier than anticipated for the prospect billing he acquired, nonetheless seems remarkably forward of Nix, Penix and McCarthy when it comes to bodily expertise and acclimation to NFL pace. He, like Maye and Daniels, can do the issues we count on of early first-round picks.

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It appeared then and nonetheless appears in hindsight that the gravity of the highest tier yanked the second tier a lot additional up the draft board than it belonged. The sheer weight of expertise shared by Williams, Daniels and Maye anchored quarterback-needy groups within the 2024 draft that so desperately wished a chunk of the motion however could not commerce their means into vary.

Of their frustration, they coped by conjuring worth in QB4, QB5 and QB6 that by no means existed beforehand. How pretty a deal with, that an elite developmental quarterback fell into Atlanta’s lap to pair with their ageing veteran — a Packers-esque funding within the now and the long run. How great that the following Drew Brees entered the draft within the precise yr that Payton’s Broncos wanted a QB on a rookie contract to heal their cap sheets and spark their roster — not simply handy, however magical. In fact, wishing does not make it so.

There may be great worth in rookie-contract quarterbacks and an extra cherry on high if you safe the fifth-year choice on that rookie deal. However that is a rosy, April thought — the guarantees of draft and spring time.

Within the chill of Week 10, the predestination of expertise quashes these fictions. We’re brutally reminded that some quarterbacks have sufficient expertise to warrant early-first-round funding, to develop into one thing spectacular, to vary the franchise. Others have much less expertise. Not no expertise, not inadequate expertise. However much less. It will likely be more durable for them to win regardless of antagonistic circumstances or tip the scales in opposition to elite opponents. Drafting them 10, 20, at the same time as many as 50 picks sooner than their expertise calls for does not alter the fact of their expertise in any respect.

Wait, why did not …?

That is the place we undergo strikes that did not occur throughout final week’s NFL commerce deadline to search out some rhyme or cause for that inactivity.

Wait, why did not … the Payments make an enormous commerce?

The pregame buzz earlier than the 1 p.m. slate centered on Payments basic supervisor Brandon Beane’s trades that nearly occurred. There was discuss that Beane labored on offers with two division rivals: the Dolphins for huge receiver Jaylen Waddle (see under) and the Jets for defensive deal with Quinnen Williams.

Executing trades with division rivals is hard beneath one of the best of circumstances. I purchase Beane’s story that he actually wished to make a deal, however the interdivisional tax was too steep.

However it’s brutal to not make a transfer by the deadline, inform everybody how onerous you tried, then instantly get embarrassed by a kind of promoting groups (Dolphins) and a kind of potential gamers (Waddle). It seems like all the goodwill the Payments generated with the win over the Chiefs final Sunday has evaporated.

I am nonetheless holding Payments inventory. I feel this passing sport can look a lot better with the return of Joshua Palmer, and the working sport remains to be a severe menace. However Beane has been the final supervisor in Buffalo since 2017, and the Payments want a Tremendous Bowl look to point out for his efforts. In any other case, why maintain the 2026 first-round choose … if another person would possibly use it?

Wait, why did not …. the Dolphins commerce extra stars?

Properly, an emphatic upset win over the Payments is pretty much as good a cause as any. Miami obtained stable worth for rising free agent edge rusher Jaelan Phillips however in any other case stood pat. The Dolphins clearly fielded affords on Waddle, whom they only prolonged final offseason. However with out receiving sufficient worth in return, they stored him as a substitute, and he led the staff Sunday with 84 receiving yards and a rating. Absolutely, they obtained affords for working again De’Von Achane as effectively, and he delivered one other 225 yards from scrimmage and two scores.

At 3-7, the Dolphins are out of rivalry. They want a brand new basic supervisor and a brand new plan at quarterback. One win does not erase the tough realities. However the victory over the Payments was a reminder that explosive younger playmakers are nonetheless the cream of the team-building crop, and Miami has two price retaining.

Wait, why did not … the Patriots add extra offensive assist?

I wished the Patriots to search out extra playmaking on the commerce deadline. Specifically, I believed they need to have made a aggressive commerce provide for Saints-turned-Seahawks receiver Rashid Shaheed so as to add pace to the offense.

Then, the Patriots scored a 72-yard landing, a 55-yard landing and a 69-yard landing Sunday — all by rookie playmakers. The 72-yarder was an enormous catch-and-run for third-round receiver Kyle Williams, who was seeing motion solely due to Kayshon Boutte’s absence. The remaining two lengthy TDs had been by working again TreVeyon Henderson, enjoying an expanded function as a result of Rhamondre Stevenson is injured (toe). The highest speeds reached on the three touchdowns, based on NFL Subsequent Gen Stats monitoring, had been 21.8 mph (Williams), 22 mph and 21.4 mph. These are the three quickest speeds for Patriots offensive ball carriers within the NGS period (since 2016).

So, I will shut up about New England’s want for extra explosive playmaking. My dangerous.

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Wait, why did not … the Jets commerce Breece Corridor?

As a result of they wanted him to supply 77.7% of the staff’s receiving yards in a 27-20 victory over the Browns which may value the Jets the primary choose within the 2026 draft!

Severely. Corridor had 42 of the Jets’ 54 whole receiving yards — all on one catch-and-run display screen that was the distinction within the sport. Per ESPN Analysis and Elias Sports activities, that receiving yardage share is the most important for a working again since 1983, when Bears RB Walter Payton had 95 of the staff’s 106 receiving yards, thanks largely to a 74-yard trick-play landing thrown by fellow again Matt Suhey. Fairly candy.

Absolutely, this offensive efficiency is precisely what the Jets envisioned for his or her first sport again after the bye. However Corridor clearly wished a commerce and did not get it. Numerous gamers would try after such a disappointment, regardless of the impact it might need on their incomes potential within the upcoming offseason. Kudos to Corridor.

Wait, why did not … the Bears add extra on protection?

Do not let 20 factors from the Giants idiot you. The Bears had one other tough one on protection. The Giants produced 431 yards, and their 20 factors had been the fewest for any staff with at the very least 400 yards of offense this season. Three Giants drives ended on downs, together with one on the Bears’ 19-yard line. Jaxson Dart led a 59-yard drive that ended with a misplaced fumble on the Bears’ 21, and Russell Wilson — who got here in after Dart was concussed — led a discipline purpose drive that made it right down to the Bears’ 1.

Chicago deserves credit score for robust situational play. Stopping three of 4 fourth downs, forcing a fumble within the pink zone and manufacturing a goal-line stand are indicators of a protection rising to key moments. However the underlying concern stays, and it has for a while. The Bears are twenty sixth in stress fee and executed solely a late-round choose swap for defensive finish Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who performed 10 snaps Sunday, on the deadline. Taking part in the Giants is all the time good for sack manufacturing, and Chicago has the Vikings and J.J. McCarthy subsequent week. But when the 6-3 Bears are to be taken critically as an NFC contender, they want extra from their move rush.

The hope is that aid comes from the within. Second-year edge rusher Austin Booker has seven pressures over the previous two video games — his first two of the season, as he was on injured reserve to begin the season. Montez Sweat, who hasn’t been the dominant move rusher the Bears had been searching for once they acquired him two commerce deadlines in the past, has snagged 2.5 sacks in the identical timeframe. The pairing of Booker as an upfield disruptor and Sweat as a clean-up artist might work — particularly if defensive deal with Gervon Dexter Sr. (seven pressures) continues contributing on the identical fee.

Second Take: Rent Brian Daboll as an offensive coordinator

ESPN’s “First Take” is thought for, effectively, offering the primary tackle issues — the moment reactions. Second Take just isn’t a spot for immediate reactions however slightly the place I will let the mud settle earlier than taking maybe a little bit of a contrarian view.

Within the 2023 free agent interval, security Julian Love wished to receives a commission. A rotational participant with the Giants who did not turn into a everlasting starter till 2022, Love had curiosity in returning to New York after its shock look within the 2022 NFC divisional spherical. “I feel I had a huge effect on this staff this yr, not simply with [my] play however with who I’m as an individual,” he stated. “I used to be the level-headed individual this locker room wanted at occasions. … I like this place. The employees has been one of the best. That is the stuff you need to come again to.”

New Giants basic supervisor Joe Schoen appeared open to getting a deal performed with Love. “Julian is aware of how we really feel about him. If we are able to get one thing performed, it might be good.”

However the Giants moved on from Love, who signed a two-year, $12 million cope with the Seahawks. He was a Professional Bowler in 2023, improved much more in 2024 and is at present a key cog in Mike Macdonald’s league-leading Seahawks protection.

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There is no cause to pillory then-Giants coach Brian Daboll and Schoen for the Love scenario. It was their first offseason, they tried to barter with Love within the common season and had the depth to backfill his function. The cash they saved on Love, they spent on QB Daniel Jones (4 years, $160 million), RB Saquon Barkley (franchise tag) and WR Darius Slayton (two years, $12 million, identical to Love).

However Love was the primary in what has turn into a recognizable sample over the previous 3½ years with the Giants. The gamers who left the group steadily improved at their new touchdown spots. On the 2023 commerce deadline, the Giants despatched Leonard Williams to the Seahawks for second- and fifth-round choices. Williams was a Professional Bowler final season and may have made an All-Professional listing; like Love, he is a lynchpin of that elite Seahawks protection.

In 2024 free company, Barkley and security Xavier McKinney left. Barkley instantly had one of the best season of his profession in Philadelphia and gained Offensive Participant of the Yr. McKinney instantly had one of the best season of his profession in Inexperienced Bay and made his first All-Professional staff.

Through the 2024 season, Jones was benched after which launched. He cleared waivers, signed with the Vikings, spent half a season on the bench in Minnesota, then joined the Colts on a one-year deal. He’s at present having one of the best season of his profession.

That is as a lot a failure of the personnel workplace as it’s of Daboll and the teaching employees. A giant a part of any basic supervisor’s job is seeing gamers’ expertise by way of the fog of their schematic obligations, poor teammates or miscast roles. The truth that so many good gamers escaped New York to prosper elsewhere proves that Schoen failed in that regard.

Nevertheless it’s additionally proof that Daboll failed. Barkley, McKinney and Williams confirmed apparent expertise then, and it is painfully extra apparent now. Even decrease on the roster, there have been many flashes of potential that had been by no means nurtured. Have a look at Jones, Kadarius Toney, Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Joshua Ezeudu, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Azeez Ojulari and Deonte Banks. Who’re the gamers who developed in New York and noticed their skills blossom beneath Daboll and his employees? I can assume of some, similar to Dane Belton, Andrew Thomas and Theo Johnson. However that is not sufficient.

Extricating Schoen’s errors from Daboll’s miscues is a severe problem. By means of this roster turnover and with restricted gamers throughout the board, Daboll did quite a bit effectively for the Giants’ offense. New York’s offensive line had move block win charges of 52.6%, 53.4% and 56.2% in Daboll’s first three seasons — all bottom-10 numbers for his or her respective seasons. That is a tricky highway to hoe for any offensive play designer.

Daboll’s dedication to RPOs and fast passes extracted loads of worth out of imperfect receivers like Robinson, Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins. Over his tenure, the Giants had been twenty eighth in factors per drive and twenty seventh in EPA per play — ugly numbers. However he was in a position to win video games with Tommy DeVito beneath heart. He might have performed higher with the instruments he was given, however many present offensive coaches would have performed a lot worse, too.

Nonetheless, the proof of the pudding is within the consuming. Daboll’s groups repeatedly crumbled in high-leverage moments. Daboll was typically a suitable coach in making high quality fourth-down selections — 11.5 EPA added earlier than the results of the play was identified — however his staff could not execute. Solely Kellen Moore’s, Jonathan Gannon’s and Invoice Belichick’s groups have misplaced extra EPA on fourth-down performs since 2022. On particular groups, he was forty seventh out of 58 coaches in whole EPA. Daboll’s Giants had been 19-4-1 in video games wherein they’d a win likelihood over 90% at any level. That successful share of 81.3% is unsurprisingly effectively under the league common (92.2%).

The document is as indefensible because the disastrous nature of the losses. Up 10 on the Bears with 6:20 remaining; up three on the Cowboys with 25 seconds remaining; up 18 on the Broncos with 10:14 remaining. All losses. There have been solely three video games this season wherein a staff held a 10-plus-point lead with beneath 4 minutes remaining and misplaced, and the Giants accounted for 2 of these. Cannot promote that. A change was wanted.

However I held some Jones inventory after he was benched in the course of final season, and I am holding some Daboll inventory as New York casts him out now. There was sufficient good on the Giants’ offensive movie for groups to rent Daboll as an offensive coordinator subsequent offseason. I am not bought Daboll has the situational chops for a head-coaching gig, however we have seen too many individuals carry out higher as soon as they escape New York for me to low cost the opportunity of a robust bounce-back as an offensive coordinator.

From y’all

The very best a part of scripting this column is listening to from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by e mail (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — however particularly on Monday every week — to ask a query and probably get it answered right here.

From Charlie: As a Panthers fan, the Bryce Younger expertise has been a very merciless episode of a misplaced decade. The Panthers traded away each respectable asset (Brian Burns, CMC, DJ Moore, and draft capital) to go all in on a QB at no 1 general. Sadly, he clearly wasn’t price it. Can we lastly surrender on Younger this offseason? Might the Panthers and Canales choose up a QB that some staff is giving up on as a reclamation undertaking? How performed are the Jags with Trevor?

Man. I really feel your ache, Charlie. (Not likely. I don’t root for the Panthers.)

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Carolina will virtually definitely pursue a quarterback various this offseason. It in all probability will not totally punt on Younger, as he is nonetheless on an affordable contract and never prohibitively dangerous on the place, as proven by the Panthers’ 5-5 document this season. (Dave Canales actually is doing a beautiful teaching job, in the event you ask me.)

I do not assume you will get Trevor Lawrence out of Jacksonville, however the thought of a veteran retread for Carolina is extraordinarily enticing to me. As was effectively lined when he was employed, Canales was a part of Geno Smith’s rehabilitation in Seattle and Baker Mayfield’s in Tampa Bay. This offense is plug-and-play prepared for a purposeful veteran, with a robust offensive line and a budding elite receiver in Tetairoa McMillan.

Kyler Murray is the plain title for this upcoming offseason, as his time in Arizona appears all however over. You realize who likes to funnel targets to a star No. 1 receiver and has the form of pocket fearlessness that Smith and Mayfield each displayed? Mac Jones.

Is he beneath contract with the 49ers in 2026? Sure. However we’ll cross that bridge once we get there. He can be match.

From Jim: I used to be watching the SNF sport between the Chargers and the Steelers, and a graphic popped up displaying how TJ Watt is chipped at a drastically increased fee than the opposite high edge rushers (Garrett, Hutch, and so on.). I am curious if there’s one thing within the movie that explains why Watt faces chip assist extra regularly than different guys in the identical echelon of move rusher.

It is not simply within the movie. It is within the numbers! Try how usually Watt aligns on one aspect of the formation relative to different high rushers.

Left Edge Snap RateRight Edge Snap RateChip RateT.J. Watt94.2percent1.8percent34.4percentMaxx Crosby82.9percent9.8percent22.0percentAidan Huchinson54.2percent45.2percent23.0percentBrian Burns42.5percent43.1percent14.1percentMyles Garrett17.9percent78.7percent29.0percentNik Bonitto15.2percent80.4percent16.2%

It is a lot, a lot simpler to enter a Sunday with a chip sport plan in the event you can predict the aspect on which a move rusher will align every week.

From Imaginary Soccer: Do you assume the Chiefs and/Payments ought to nonetheless be the favorites to return again and win their divisions?

Sure to the primary, no to the second.

From Wookie: Early ideas on Shough?

I favored what I noticed from Tyler Shough in opposition to the Panthers! It was simply his greatest efficiency of the season, and it is onerous to fault him for a poor second half in opposition to the Buccaneers (Spencer Rattler obtained the beginning) and a shaky sport in opposition to the Rams (the league’s second-best protection by EPA per drive). To this point, I am impressed.

On Sunday, Shough flashed the arm expertise that carried him by way of his lengthy faculty profession. He made a number of on-the-move throws in opposition to his physique or with stress at his toes that he usually wasn’t credited for within the pre-draft course of. He nonetheless prefers to sit down within the pocket and get all the things out on a well timed three-step-and-hitch rhythm, which is ok. He’ll must see the sphere sooner and make extra aggressive selections to win that means shifting ahead — he left loads of intermediate throws on the sphere in favor of safer checkdowns — however when he uncorks it, he throws a really fairly ball. That landing move up the sideline to Chris Olave was thrilling.

Shough hasn’t been clearly higher than Rattler was, however he positively hasn’t been worse. If each sport from right here on out seems like that Panthers sport, he’ll have a agency maintain on the Saints’ QB1 job for subsequent season at the very least.

From Patrick: What’s Klint Kubiak doing that is making the Seahawks’ offense so explosive?

Glorious query. In a single sentence: He is getting opposing defenses to place base personnel on the sphere.

Within the trendy NFL, defenses need to reside in nickel personnel: 5 defensive backs, two linebackers, 4 down linemen. With a lot staff pace pooled into receiver and tight finish positions, so many pass-catching backs and RPOs that make defenses unsuitable after the snap … there’s simply no approach to discipline three linebackers and never surrender house within the passing sport.

We will see this in leaguewide knowledge. Right here is passing efficiency on first and second down in opposition to base and nickel personnel since 2020.

Base (4 defensive backs)Nickel (5 defensive backs)Yards per Attempt7.86Yards per Dropback76.4Dropback success rate50.6percent48.2percentExplosive move rate16.7percent13.1percentFirst down + landing rate34.4percent30.0percentTD/INT ratio2.71.9

An offensive coordinator who can get the opponent to place base protection on the sphere inherently creates a softer surroundings for passing success.

That is the lever that Kubiak pulls greatest. Over the previous 5 seasons, no passer has confronted base protection on over 40% of his dropbacks save for one: Saints QB Derek Carr, who performed beneath Kubiak final season. Third on that listing is 2020 Kirk Cousins, for whom Kubiak was quarterbacks coach (beneath offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, his father). In twelfth, at 30.6% of his dropbacks, is 2025 Sam Darnold.

The plain approach to get base personnel on the sphere is with your personal personnel. The Seahawks run fewer three-receiver units than each staff save the Steelers. As many have famous, the Seahawks aren’t excellent at working the soccer from these units (or in any respect). However when the protection has to decide on which 11 gamers to place within the huddle, it is onerous for it to disregard the additional tight finish and the fullback and go away the slot nook on the sphere. The Seahawks will see that, get to the road and get to a working play or a fast display screen. Even a foul working offense can discover success in opposition to gentle personnel.

Why do not different groups do that? Properly, different groups have extra mouths to feed within the passing sport. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has proven an Atlassian capability for carrying the passing sport, and none of Cooper Kupp, A.J. Barner or Tory Horton have an affordable demand for extra targets.

There are different brokers at play right here. Darnold is not simply throwing in opposition to base personnel but additionally in opposition to stacked containers — that is the place condensed formations and getting beneath heart helps. Of Darnold’s dropbacks, 14.9% have come in opposition to stacked containers, second solely to 2022 Brock Purdy over the previous 5 seasons.

Stacked containers create extra space on the surface, which in flip creates greater alternatives for yards after the catch. Equally, stacked containers make rollouts extra harmful, as Darnold is working into house. Darnold is averaging 0.51 EPA per dropback on rollouts. On rollouts to his left — tough performs that shock the protection by rolling to the quarterback’s offhanded aspect — he is at 0.99 EPA per dropback.

None of that is revolutionary — each Kyle Shanahan and Kevin Stefanski, mentors of Kubiak, have performed comparable issues for his or her quarterbacks through the years. Nevertheless it works. Toss within the actually elite play of Smith-Njigba, the depraved accuracy of a assured Darnold and a spittin’ protection that offers the Seahawks leads and protects Darnold from clear dropback conditions, and you have got fairly the offensive philosophy.

Subsequent Ben Stats

NFL Subsequent Gen Stats are distinctive and insightful nuggets of knowledge which are gleaned from monitoring chips and big databases. Subsequent Ben Stats are often numbers I made up. Each are under.

2.42: The variety of factors per drive the league is producing on the primary two drives of video games. It is one of the best quantity in historical past.

I am utilizing the primary two drives as a proxy for “scripted performs.” I do not like utilizing the primary 15 performs, though that is anecdotally what’s scripted. A coach cannot truly script performs so as — he does not know if his first third down will probably be from 3 or 13 yards out. The primary two drives typically seize what we count on to be ready and practiced by way of the week.

I initially dove into these numbers to see how McCarthy was acting on and off script, however I grew extra curious as I appeared. Does not it look like groups are sprinting out to opening-drive touchdowns greater than ever earlier than? Properly, they’re. Offenses are scoring touchdowns on 26.5% of their first two drives this season, which is one other historic quantity.

Area place has an impact right here. Drives are beginning on the 29.1-yard line on common, which is 4 yards above the typical spot within the mid-2010s. Within the 2000s, drives had the same beginning discipline place (or higher), however offenses had been a little bit worse. Take 2001, when drives began on the 30 on common — however with solely 4.9 yards per play to 2025’s 5.5, the 2001 offenses rapidly misplaced floor.

A second issue is not offensive effectivity — 5.5 yards per play is fairly constantly common over the previous 15 seasons — however fourth-down willingness. There have been 76 fourth-down makes an attempt on 592 scripted drives this season, or 0.13 makes an attempt per drive. That quantity has been climbing in current seasons, nevertheless it reached a brand new peak this yr. Groups are additionally changing 71.1% of those fourth downs up to now in 2025 — one of the best fee since 2009.

Final, however definitely not least: There’s some Okay-ball juice right here. Simply as landing charges are at an all-time excessive, so are discipline purpose charges — not what you’d count on. Sometimes, if landing charges leap, discipline purpose charges undergo, as discipline objectives are the product of touchdown-less journeys throughout the 50. However because the vary of contemporary kickers has expanded, these further few yards of discipline place actually begin to matter. Now discipline purpose alternatives chew into what had been as soon as punt positions.

I will go away you with a graph displaying the factors per drive distinction between scripted and unscripted drives over the previous 25 seasons. Whereas it has been a terrific yr for offense general, I do assume there’s one thing right here within the offensive overachievement on the script.

11: Consecutive video games the Panthers have misplaced wherein they had been favored. It’s the longest dropping streak in favored video games within the Tremendous Bowl period.

I can not even start to precise to you the way onerous that is to do.

When you flipped a good coin and tried to get 11 heads in a row, you would be pursuing a .05% end result — a one in 2,000 shot. Wanting again on the Panthers’ historic moneylines — how a lot they had been favored by in every sport — we’re now speaking 0.02%! A one in 5,000 probability to lose the precise 11 video games that the Panthers have misplaced because the begin of the 2021 season.

As a result of I do know you will ask: Eight of the 11 losses got here beneath Matt Rhule, with a ninth beneath his interim coach (Steve Wilks) and two extra beneath Dave Canales, together with Sunday’s loss to the Saints. The beginning quarterbacks: two Darnold video games, three Cam Newton video games, three Baker Mayfield video games, one other Darnold sport and two Bryce Younger video games.

The typical margin of victory? Ten factors. In video games wherein they had been favored. Extra more likely to win than not. Preposterous.

57.4%: The speed of performs on which the Lions motioned somebody on the snap in opposition to the Commanders. It is the second-highest fee of a sport within the Dan Campbell period.

I can not recover from how cool it’s that Campbell took over performs this week. As I wrote final week, the Lions’ seasonlong offensive numbers appeared nice, however they’d a shocking variety of dud outings. Their back-to-back outings in opposition to the Buccaneers and Vikings had been the third- and sixth-worst offensive outings (by success fee) of your entire Campbell period.

I feel 31 of 32 coaches would have stayed the course, espoused some (not inaccurate) bromides about rising chemistry and offensive line continuity, and stored it chugging. Not Campbell. He picked John Morton as offensive coordinator over a number of enticing inside promotions final offseason, and as a substitute of doubling down on that funding, he took the mic in opposition to the Commanders. That, to me, is as gutsy as any fourth-down resolution.

Now, offensive outcomes in opposition to the Commanders ought to be consumed with grains of salt so giant they generate a gravitational discipline. I am not able to say Campbell fastened something or all the things. However the fingerprints of sharp — dare I say nerdy — playcalling had been everywhere in the Lions’ movie on Sunday. They snapped the ball with gamers in movement. They ran play-action passes on the highest fee of the season. They’d a constructive move fee over expectation for the primary time all season, too. Anybody considering “meathead Campbell will set up the run” hasn’t been listening. This is without doubt one of the cleverest coaches within the league, full cease.

I feel Campbell will search for a brand new offensive coordinator by subsequent season, so we would get pleasure from solely one other 8-10 weeks of Campbell calling performs. But when he stays this efficient as a playcaller, on high of all he has performed effectively as a CEO, it is robust to rank any head coach in soccer above him.

8: That is what number of false begins the Vikings had in opposition to the Ravens on Sunday. That is probably the most by a house staff because the 2009 season.

I’ve watched all eight meticulously. I feel fault is fairly clearly shared. The staff is clearly not but snug with McCarthy’s cadence. McCarthy elicited a false begin when he went to kill a play and had one other thrown on himself for simulating a shotgun snap too aggressively. However the Vikings’ line actually struggled to carry its water in opposition to a Ravens entrance that was doing a terrific job anticipating the snap rely and altering their photos proper because the movement man sprinted throughout the formation.

There’s quite a bit to scrub up procedurally in Minnesota! This isn’t an offense that may endure getting behind the sticks within the slightest.

225-1: That is the document for NFL groups which have held their opponent beneath 175 whole yards and never turned the ball over. The one loss is the Browns, who misplaced to the Jets on Sunday.

This is one other enjoyable stat for you: The Jets are the primary staff with two return touchdowns within the first quarter of a sport because the 2007 season, when Chargers working again Darren Sproles scored his first (and second) profession touchdowns in opposition to the Colts on “Sunday Night time Soccer.”

It is unlikely both Kene Nwangwu (who returned the kickoff) or Isaiah Williams (who returned the punt) has a Sproles-like profession. However for a staff just like the Jets, who must manufacture quick fields and scoring drives nonetheless doable, the particular groups efficiency is notable. Recall that the Jets practically beat the Buccaneers in Week 3 on a blocked discipline purpose returned for a landing. Nwangwu, who missed video games this season due to a concussion and a hamstring harm, has two touchdowns in 9 kickoff returns with the Jets — one final season, then this one Sunday.

Numerous groups present indicators of quitting by this level within the season. Many anticipated the Jets can be one such staff. As a substitute, they’re getting standout particular groups efforts to energy wins proper after a commerce deadline wherein they dealt a number of veteran stars. Kudos to Jets particular groups coordinator Chris Banjo, a longtime NFL vet who retired after the 2022 season and is in his first function as a full-time coordinator this season. Recreation ball!

Monday Night time Monotony: Packers at a crossroads

There’s nothing higher than a prime-time sport that leaves each fan bases livid. The Eagles beat the Packers 10-7 in a sport that was scoreless at halftime and 3-0 when the ultimate interval started. After the Eagles constructed a 10-0 lead on the again of a Saquon Barkley 41-yard catch-and-run, then DeVonta Smith’s 36-yard leaping landing snag, the lead appeared insurmountable.

Compensate for the NFL commerce deadline

• See each deal | Grading large strikes• Solak: Deadline winners, losers• Barnwell: Sorting the wild Gardner deal• Graziano/Fowler: Submit-deadline buzz

The Packers’ fan base is probably going freaking out extra. I questioned final week the place the offense would discover explosive performs within the absence of tight finish Tucker Kraft, and the reply was completely nowhere. Love’s longest completion Monday was 25 yards, making this solely the sixth sport in his profession wherein he failed to finish a move of at the very least 30 yards. By EPA per dropback, it was the fourth-worst sport of Love’s profession (minimal 20 dropbacks).

Kraft wasn’t the one Packers move catcher inactive. Matthew Golden could not go on this sport due to a shoulder harm, and Jayden Reed remains to be out due to clavicle and foot accidents. Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Savion Williams performed regardless of being restricted through the week, however the Packers’ receiving core was skinny sufficient that receiver-turned-cornerback Bo Melton turned again for the night time and ran 16 routes.

Accidents have definitely affected the Packers’ offense, however this was an uninspiring effort from coach Matt LaFleur, who appears to be out of solutions. The Packers had a run fee 10 share factors above expectation on this sport, based on NFL Subsequent Gen Stats numbers. It is their fourth sport with a run fee at the very least 10% over expectation, and people 4 video games have been their 4 most disappointing outings: losses to the Panthers, Browns and Eagles and a tie to the Cowboys.

The run-heavy strategy can be extra fascinating if the Packers had been good at working the soccer. They don’t seem to be. The Packers have registered 69 yards under expectation on working again carries, the third worst within the NFL. Their skill-position gamers are common to poor blockers exterior of Kraft, who, once more, is out for the yr. Jacobs is a bodily again however not one who generates explosive performs. And the road has been an utter disappointment.

In need of the playcalling and offensive philosophy, LaFleur struggled situationally on this sport. The Packers handed on a 60-yard discipline purpose try and go for a fourth-and-9 (a defensible alternative) and punted on a fourth-and-11 that will have in any other case been a 57-yard discipline purpose try (a little bit onerous to defend, in my view). When you do not belief your kicker from that lengthy, OK … however the Packers are rostering Brandon McManus, who continues to work by way of a quad harm, in favor of Lucas Havrisik, who’s 4-of-4 on the season and hit a 61-yarder. The Packers had been caught trying a 64-yarder with McManus to attempt to tie the rating on the final play.

Inexperienced Bay additionally sprinted to the road to go for a fourth-and-1 on what might have been the tying or successful drive. With 1:40 on a working clock and two timeouts, the Packers quick-snapped a zone run from the gun that Eagles defensive tackles Moro Ojomo and Jalen Carter blew up. The Packers’ line was clearly not prepared, and the staff was even flagged for unlawful formation. With two timeouts in a 3-point sport and greater than 90 seconds left on the clock, the necessity for urgency was not practically as excessive because the Packers acted.

The @Eagles get the cease on 4th down!

PHIvsGB on ESPN/ABCStream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/STft4uZ2Lb

— NFL (@NFL) November 11, 2025

Inexperienced Bay had an embarrassing loss in Week 9 as a 13-point favourite over the Panthers. This sport — at dwelling in opposition to the defending Tremendous Bowl champs — was an enormous bounce-back alternative for a perceived NFC contender. The Packers got here out flat and by no means discovered juice. I am formally nervous about that locker room and the inner perception in Inexperienced Bay.