Final week, it was reported by Matt Gelb of The Athletic that the Phils had been giving some thought to buying and selling outfielder Nick Castellanos, infielder Alec Bohm, prospect Justin Crawford or left-hander Ranger Suárez as they appear to shake up their roster. Monday, Bob Nightengale of USA At the moment experiences alongside comparable traces, noting that the membership is making Bohm out there and is predicted to look to free brokers Alex Bregman or Willy Adames in the event that they achieve buying and selling Bohm.
Because the Phils look to make some modifications, they solely have so many avenues. Lots of their place gamers are costly veterans who’re entrenched on the roster, both because of their efficiency, their contracts or each.
Bohm, then again, remains to be in his arbitration years, slated totally free company after 2026. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz initiatives him for a wage of $8.1M subsequent 12 months and Bohm can be due one other increase for 2026.
On prime of that, his efficiency has been extra good than nice. Thus far in his profession, he has a batting line of .277/.327/.416. That interprets to a 103 wRC+, indicating he’s been 3% higher than the league-average hitter. He did have a 115 wRC+ in 2024, however in lopsided trend, with a 128 within the first half and a 90 within the second. Additionally, most of his injury has been carried out with the platoon benefit. He has a profession 135 wRC+ in opposition to lefties in his profession however a subpar 91 wRC+ in opposition to righties.
Defensively, he hasn’t been nice general, although he has proven indicators of enchancment. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of -46 over the primary 4 years of his profession however then had him at league common in 2024. Outs Above Common had Bohm in unfavorable territory from 2020 to 2022 however barely higher than par prior to now two years.
Total, he’s been a helpful participant however one thing beneath a star, and both Bregman or Adames might be seen as a transparent improve. Bregman has hit .272/.366/.483 in his profession for a 135 wRC+ and has been a thought-about a robust defender at third base in addition. Adames has hit .248/.322/.444 for a 109 wRC+ in his profession whereas offering sturdy shortstop protection, however he’s reportedly keen to maneuver to different infield positions. Most shortstops are able to shifting to different spots on the infield pretty easily, so it’s attainable the Phils would anticipate Adames to supply higher glovework than Bohm, although it will be a brand new place for him.
Enacting these strikes would have issues. Bohm’s modest projected wage is way lower than what Bregman or Adames are more likely to earn on their respective contracts. MLBTR predicted Bregman for $182M and Adames for $160M over six years, each for common annual values within the $26M-27M vary.
The payroll might be a notable story for the Phils this offseason. Chairman John Middleton has stated he expects payroll to go up, nevertheless it already has, in a approach. RosterResource initiatives the membership for a payroll of $263M subsequent 12 months, which is $15M larger than 2024 earlier than they’ve even made any strikes.
Their $282M aggressive stability tax quantity is already projected to be above the third tier of penalization. As a third-time payor, meaning they’re already a 95% tax on any cash they add as much as the ultimate line of $301M. Something they add past that line would have a 110% tax charge.
Swapping in Bregman or Adames for Bohm would make these numbers go up, nevertheless it appears the Phils have no less than some hope of creating up the distinction elsewhere. Nightengale notes that they’ve tried to make use of Bohm and Crawford to pry Garrett Crochet unfastened from the White Sox. Crochet had an enormous breakout in 2024, tossing 146 innings with a 3.58 earned run common, 35.1% strikeout charge, 5.5% stroll charge and 45.1% floor ball charge.
That efficiency will make Crochet very talked-about on the commerce market, however so will his wage. Since he spent the early elements of his profession both injured or figuring out of the bullpen, he’s solely projected for a $2.9M wage in 2025, with yet another arb go after that. The Phils have a robust rotation with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Suárez and Taijuan Walker, however Walker has fallen out of favor with the membership, getting kicked to the bullpen for a time in 2024. Andrew Painter might be a think about 2025 however he’s an enormous unknown since he nonetheless hasn’t made his main league debut and is getting back from an extended Tommy John surgical procedure layoff.
It might clearly be a beautiful collection of chess strikes if the Phillies might use Bohm so as to add an inexpensive ace to their rotation, maybe discovering a option to unload the 2 years and $36M left on Walker’s contract, after which use the price financial savings to get a star like Bregman or Adames to interchange Bohm at third.
Nonetheless, doing all of that might require the settlement of different groups. Bohm’s commerce worth received’t be that top on account of his aforementioned deficiencies. Nightengale provides that the Sox are fearful by Bohm’s efficiency within the second half of 2024. He additionally wouldn’t have a lot worth to the Sox anyway, since his management window is so brief. After Chicago’s record-breaking loss tally in 2024, it’s exhausting to check them returning to competition in Bohm’s two remaining years of membership management. The Phils may need to incorporate some extra prospect expertise to get a deal carried out, which they won’t wish to do proper now, given how a lot of the roster is full of costly veterans.
A far easier consequence for Bregman would simply be to re-sign with the Astros, the place he has spent his complete profession thus far. It’s a far easier match, and the 2 sides seemingly have had mutual curiosity in signing a brand new deal for years, however nothing has come collectively so far.
It appears there is likely to be a little bit of a niche by way of the financials, with Nightengale reporting that Houston desires Bregman again on a deal of about $156M over six years, however Bregman is seeking to get to the $200M line. Jon Heyman of The New York Publish reported final week that the Astros have made a proposal to Bregman. It’s unknown what they placed on the desk, however the truth that he hasn’t but accepted it means that it wasn’t as much as his expectations. Common supervisor Dana Brown has urged the membership would possibly should be artistic with the price range this offseason, however proprietor Jim Crane has urged there’s cash out there for the best gamers, and all indicators have pointed to Bregman being the membership’s highest precedence.
Bregman has additionally been linked to the Tigers and Crimson Sox prior to now week, with the latter membership contemplating a transfer to first base for Rafael Devers, to be able to accommodate Bregman. Adames has additionally been linked to the Crimson Sox, along with the Astros, Atlanta, Blue Jays and Giants. Each gamers rejected qualifying gives and can be topic to related penalties, except they re-sign with their respective 2024 golf equipment.
For the Phils, since they paid the CBT in 2024, they must forfeit $1M of worldwide bonus pool house in addition to their second- and fifth-best picks within the upcoming draft in the event that they signal a participant that rejected a qualifying provide. The Astros wouldn’t forfeit something, aside from the compensation choose they stand to obtain if Bregman goes elsewhere, which might come after the fourth spherical of the upcoming draft.
