The middleweights will undoubtedly be the celebrities of UFC 319, however the division one weight class beneath ought to provide among the best fights of the cardboard when Carlos Prates squares off with Geoff Neal. In a traditional prospect vs. veteran matchup at UFC 319, Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) will look to get again on the successful path after a slender defeat to Ian Machado-Garry.
Standing in his means is the brick wall that’s Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC), a stalwart opponent who has made a dwelling off of dealing out large knockouts for the final eight years. Under is a full combat breakdown for the premier welterweight matchup.
UFC 319 Battle Breakdown: The Grappling Recreation
Neither of those guys is understood for his or her floor recreation, nevertheless it ought to play a small half in Saturday night time’s affair at UFC 319, largely at Neal’s discretion. The American will quit two inches in peak and three inches in attain towards Prates, making it seemingly that some kind of offensive clinching is carried out into the gameplan.
When confronted with the same bodily drawback towards Machado-Garry, Neal selected to combat on the entrance foot, crowding the longer man and repeatedly pushing him towards the cage as a way to mitigate his longer attain. He by no means actually introduced a hazard to Machado-Garry on the fence, selecting to attempt to rack up management time over truly dropping for a takedown.
Nonetheless, in a previous combat with Shavkat Rakhmonov, Neal shied away from clinching in any respect, fearing the superior submission abilities of the Kazakh fighter. This comparability ought to assist reveal how Neal plans to method an opponent like Prates throughout UFC 319 on Saturday.
Of Neal’s three matchups talked about right here, Prates is by far the worst grappler. The Brazilian confirmed a superb aptitude for denying outright takedown makes an attempt in his personal matchup with Machado-Garry, defending 15 of 19 pictures. An important distinction is that Machado-Garry usually selected to shoot in the course of the Octagon whereas actively trying to tug Prates down, not maintain him on the fence.
No opponent has tried to manage Prates on the cage for an prolonged interval, opening a gap in his recreation that Neal will attempt to exploit. Neal will combat on the entrance foot, and when he does provoke a grappling trade, will probably be a dirty, disagreeable cage-holding minute or two for each fighters.
UFC 319 Battle Breakdown: Carlos Prates
Fortunately for followers, the aforementioned clinch conditions ought to represent solely a small minority of this combat at UFC 319. The remainder of the competition within the open Octagon ought to include among the most enjoyable, technically clear placing of the 12 months, buoyed by an attention-grabbing stylistic matchup.
Maybe crucial stylistic notice is that each males primarily combat in a southpaw stance. Prates, a lefty himself, has not confronted a pure southpaw within the UFC but, however he nonetheless has some noticeable tendencies which have developed when opponents have switched stances. When confronted with a closed stance, Prates is way more keen to stress opponents, typically disregarding his attain benefit in favor of stepping ahead whereas growing his quantity.
Moreover, his leg kicks turn into particularly potent due to their pure goal of the surface a part of his opponent’s leg. As all the time, although, there’s a give and take, with the closed stance partially nullifying Prates’ rear kicks to the pinnacle and physique, in addition to the rear knee chargeable for ending Charlie Radtke.
Additional hurting the Brazilian is the truth that his finest strike, his cross, can have a more durable time touchdown towards one other lefty. Regardless of his size, Prates shouldn’t be a jab-heavy fighter, as a substitute selecting to attend and sprinkle a couple of proper arms in whereas ready for a gap to throw his energy pictures. The closed stance, as soon as once more, makes it tougher to seek out the mark for one in all his finest weapons.
UFC 319: Battle Breakdown: Geoff Neal
Naturally, Neal ought to profit in a lot of methods from preventing out of a closed stance. Prates’ elevated stress ought to assist him shut the space whereas opening home windows for the American’s finest pictures, his looping hooks. When that distance is closed, Prates has proven an inclination to depend on his size and a defensive shell. He’ll attempt to pull his head out of hazard whereas leaving his arms low to defend his physique, a tactic that’s nice in kickboxing vary however a doubtlessly lethal mistake within the pocket. Neal has the ability to capitalize on that mistake, particularly if it occurs a number of occasions.
Exterior of the collisions within the pocket, Neal can have a tough time discovering an offensive rhythm. He usually chooses to blitz out of his excessive guard, firing lengthy combos whereas steaming ahead to account for his quick attain. In opposition to Prates, a incredible counter-striker who constantly lands shifting backwards earlier than discovering artistic methods to angle off, that tendency must be an issue in UFC 319.
At distance, Neal will discover himself peppered with entrance kicks to the physique and a jab thrown with growing frequency, seeing as Machado-Garry was in a position to penetrate the excessive guard time and time once more along with his lead hand. The closed stance, whereas primarily useful, does damage Neal by opening the door for Prates’ leg kicks, a pure counter to his boxing-heavy stance.
The American has a number of defensive disadvantages right here, however none so giant that they appear more likely to finish in Neal’s first knockout loss within the UFC.
UFC 319: Battle Breakdown: Remaining Prediction
This combat at UFC 319 shall be nearer than the betting odds predict it to be. The result will hinge on the sport plans carried out by every fighter’s cornermen. If Prates is ready to restrain his aggression towards southpaw fighters and decide at Neal from a distance, depend on his counterstriking, and keep away from making an attempt to knock out a man who has been KOed as soon as in 22 fights, he ought to win on the scorecards.
Greater than seemingly, although, Prates will proceed to do what has made him so fashionable within the UFC: go for the kill. That ought to permit Neal to land a plethora of massive pictures within the pocket, leading to a late end.
Remaining Prediction: Geoff Neal by KO, Rd. 3
