It’s in all probability been a clumsy few weeks for Cody Bellinger. It’s been an open secret that the Chicago Cubs have been making an attempt to maneuver him regardless of having signed him to a three-year, $80 million contract only one offseason in the past. The emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong as a reputable hitter had already made Bellinger (and/or Seiya Suzuki) expendable, and as soon as the Cubs gained the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes, it was only a matter of ready for the opposite shoe to drop.
And what a grand, stripey shoe it’s. The New York Yankees have graciously agreed to take Bellinger off the Cubs’ arms, and to soak up all however $5 million of his remaining contract. Chicago additionally will get right-handed pitcher Cody Poteet within the deal. Thus the Nice Cosmic Steadiness of Codys stays undisturbed.
Bellinger’s time in Chicago got here to an finish as a result of he dedicated that unforgivable sin of merely being fairly good when his contract demanded extra. Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 in his first season with the Cubs, on a one-year prove-it deal. In 2024, he was a little bit extra pedestrian: .266/.325/.426 with simply 18 residence runs — nonetheless good for a 109 wRC+, and with common protection in middle area, 2.2 WAR.
Bellinger will make $27.5 million in 2025 and $25 million in 2026, however he can decide out after this upcoming season for a $5 million buyout. That signifies that if Bellinger stinks in 2026, the Yankees (or, beforehand, the Cubs) could be on the hook for an extra season at $25 million. But when he’s adequate to strive his luck in free company for the third time in 4 years, Bellinger might train his opt-out, successfully costing the Yankees $32.5 million for only one season.
If Bellinger places up one thing like a five-win season, the Yankees would in all probability be pleased with that deal, however it does give this commerce rather less upside than your backyard selection wage dump.
Fortuitously, the Yankees have a spare $31 million in payroll to throw round after taking Juan Soto off their books.
It’s the newest odd flip for a participant whose profession has awed and mystified in equal measure. A primary baseman who become defensive middle fielder, a Rookie of the Yr at 22, an MVP at 24, and a World Collection winner at 25, Bellinger spent the ultimate two seasons of his Dodgers tenure battling a large number of accidents and a multi-year droop.
Peak Bellinger was in a position to swat 40 homers with ease, whereas nonetheless sustaining a strikeout charge not an excessive amount of increased than his stroll charge. That’s gone now, or a minimum of the facility is; he’s posted an ISO increased than .180 simply as soon as over the past 4 seasons.
Even Bellinger’s renaissance in 2023 had the indicators of a mirage: He outproduced his xwOBA by 43 factors, and posted a BABIP of .319, after placing up a .277 mark within the first six seasons of his profession. Was there regression in Bellinger’s batted-ball luck in 2024? To an extent, however he additionally simply wasn’t hitting the ball that tough. His xwOBACON dropped from .357 in 2023 to a career-low .326 in 2024, and even that earlier mark was down greater than 100 factors from his MVP season.
These days, Bellinger is the exact opposite of the kind of participant he appears like. He’s listed at 6-foot-4 and 203 kilos, and up shut you’d swear that he’s a minimum of 20% greater in all dimensions, however he generates lots of gentle contact.
I apologize for giving the impression that I’m down on Bellinger, as a result of he actually is an efficient match for the Yankees in a number of respects. Even earlier than you get to the tangible on-field stuff, Bellinger is, as I simply mentioned, a huge man, and that matches with the Yankees’ complete vibe. Furthermore, his father, Clay, performed virtually all of his main league profession with the Yankees, the place he had extra World Collection rings than profession extra-base hits. (This isn’t actually true, however it’s believable sufficient you have been about to go look it up.)
Principally it comes all the way down to this. Listed here are the 5 gamers who performed a minimum of an inning in middle area for New York this previous season, plus Bellinger.
Yankees Heart Fielders, 2024-25
Decide was the very best general middle fielder in baseball in 2024, however that’s completely on the energy of his bat. He in all probability might’ve rode round on a unicycle carrying hockey gloves and nonetheless come out as an above-average general participant. However Decide was a below-average defender in middle, and ideally you in all probability need him to play proper area.
Which he can do now, as a result of each of the Yankees’ earlier incumbent nook outfielders — Verdugo and Soto — are not with the group. Put Decide in proper, Domínguez in left, and discover somebody to face between them. Chisholm has intensive huge league expertise in middle, however utilizing him there would open up a gap at both second or third base, and that may require an exterior resolution.
That leaves Grisham, who’s defender, however nowhere close to the hitter that even late-stage Bellinger is. With the Cubs, Bellinger was anticipated to hold the lineup. The Yankees have already got that man, so if Bellinger is simply an above-average hitter and a stable defender in middle, that’s nice. Bellinger additionally nonetheless has the flexibility to play first base, the place he began 57 video games and logged greater than 500 innings over two seasons in Chicago. So if the Yankees don’t signal another person and the Ben Rice experiment fizzles out in some unspecified time in the future, Bellinger can provide them an possibility at yet one more place of weak point.
And as you’re studying this, you’re in all probability screaming into your cellphone on the subway and horrifying strangers, as a result of I haven’t talked about the very best half: Bellinger stands to get an enormous increase from a extra favorable residence ballpark. In 2024, he posted a 99 wRC+ at residence and a 117 wRC+ on the street. The Pleasant Confines have been something however. And there’s a selected motive to count on Bellinger to learn: Wrigley Discipline has an enormous cutout in straightaway proper area that places the foul pole 353 toes from residence plate — 39 toes farther than the suitable area fence at Yankee Stadium. And I count on that to be an enormous deal for a hitter with Bellinger’s particular traits.
See, most residence runs will not be truly 450-foot upper-deck screamers. In case you hit the ball in the suitable place, you don’t should hit it particularly laborious to finish up on the trot. And Bellinger hits the ball in the suitable place: He’s a fly ball-happy pull-side hitter.
Which means Bellinger will get lots of residence runs for his comparatively restricted bang. In 2024, he had simply 67 balls in play with an exit velocity of a minimum of 100 mph, or two greater than Rob Refsnyder. However virtually 1 / 4 of Bellinger’s triple-digit batted balls — 23.9% the Thirteenth-highest share amongst roughly 200 hitters with 10 or extra residence runs — ended up within the seats. Once more, that’s with Bellinger enjoying half his video games at Wrigley.
In line with Baseball Savant’s anticipated residence runs desk, Yankee Stadium would’ve been the third-most residence run-friendly park for Bellinger this previous season, after Nice American Ball Park in Cincinnati and Residents Financial institution Park in Philadelphia. Bellinger hit 18 residence runs in 2024; had he performed all his video games at Yankee Stadium, he would’ve hit 24. Had he performed all of his video games at Wrigley (as a substitute of sometimes occurring the street, as huge league ballplayers are obliged to do), he would’ve hit simply 15 — that complete was tied for the fifth lowest out of the 30 parks. No matter Bellinger’s emotions about Chicago and the Cubs on the whole, he’s in all probability completely happy to dispense together with his viny tormentor.
And the Cubs might be equally completely happy to be rid of his contract.
The Cubs offloaded a sizeable monetary dedication for a participant who not occupied a place of want. I do not know if the Cubs’ financial savings will return into the key league roster, or whether or not they’ll get shuffled into God is aware of what nook of the Ricketts household’s banking, actual property, and political empire. I hope, for the sake of Cubs followers and the nation, that it’s the previous.
And I suppose it’s value mentioning Poteet, a 30-year-old right-hander who got here to the Yankees as a free agent a yr in the past, after bouncing round for some time within the Marlins’ and Royals’ farm techniques. Poteet has made 24 huge league appearances, 13 of them begins, over elements of three seasons. He mixes 5 pitches, starting from an upper-70s curveball to a low-90s four-seamer/sinker fastball combo.
With the Marlins, he was extra fastball-slider-changeup, however the Yankees had him lean extra closely on his slower breaking pitches: a sweeper and the aforementioned curveball. In 5 appearances (4 begins) over 24 1/3 innings, Poteet’s outcomes have been nice: a 3-0 file and a 2.22 ERA. However he gave up extra laborious contact than these numbers would point out, and in these 24 1/3 innings, he struck out solely 16 batters, towards 18 hits, eight walks, and successful batter.
Poteet is a serviceable swingman, and he has two choices left, but when the Yankees had wanted him within the majors they might’ve used him. And despite the fact that you may by no means have an excessive amount of beginning pitching depth, the Cubs have been already fairly well-stocked. Poteet could be no increased than seventh on the Cubs’ beginning pitching depth chart, and probably as little as tenth, relying on how Cade Horton’s shoulder feels. And that’s assuming that the Cubs — who’ve been linked to Jesús Luzardo on the commerce market — don’t exit and preserve including.
All of which reinforces the concept that Bellinger’s contract is the large shifting half right here. The Yankees are principally simply paying money — albeit plenty of it — for a participant you may’t get on the open market this yr. Our Free Agent Tracker lists Harrison Bader as the very best remaining free agent middle fielder by 2025 projected WAR. Even counting gamers who’ve already signed, the checklist goes to Mike Tauchman approach sooner than the Yankees would in all probability like. If Tyler O’Neill is value $49.5 million over three seasons, this will’t be that a lot of an overpay.
Bellinger gained’t fill the wound left within the Yankees’ psyche when Soto left. However he’ll fill the opening in middle area.
