For some time, one of many Philadelphia Flyers‘ largest weaknesses was their shorthanded unit. Between 2014-15 and 2022-23—a nine-season span—they had been above the league common in penalty kill proportion simply as soon as (2019-20; eleventh). That stated, followers had been pleasantly shocked when the crew killed penalties on the fourth-most environment friendly charge in 2023-24 and led the NHL with 16 shorthanded targets.
The Flyers got here out of the gate final season with the most effective penalty kills of their historical past, seeing some inevitable regression as time moved alongside. Nevertheless, expectations had been nonetheless excessive coming into 2024-25, even when a top-end unit can be a tall ask.
By means of 31 video games, Philadelphia doesn’t precisely have a lot to complain about from a historic perspective. They’ve the Thirteenth-most environment friendly penalty kill within the NHL and solely 11 golf equipment have extra shorthanded tallies than them (2). It’s actually a step again, however not unhealthy, no?
The Flyers are above common when down a person, certain. However they trusted their penalty kill final season to persevere regardless of their goal lack of roster expertise. Scoring 4 extra shorthanded tallies than every other crew within the league on prime of seldom permitting targets did wonders for them. So, can Philadelphia return to the degrees of their 2023-24 marketing campaign? Or will they want a distinct ploy to have an opportunity on the playoffs?
Decline of the Flyers’ Penalty Kill by the Numbers
This part is a take a look at the numbers of the Flyers’ decline. The stats are essential, as they assist put a numerical worth on the attention check. Plus, the sustainability of the crew’s play turns into extra evident.
First, we’ll begin by trying on the offensive aspect of the Flyers’ penalty kill. In fact, that isn’t the first duty, however the crew’s aggressiveness made them an intimidating bunch. How did they appear in 2023-24, and the way do they appear now?
Offensively, it’s clear that the Flyers had the sting final season—they scored targets at thrice the speed they’re immediately. Shot makes an attempt have decreased by 26.47 p.c, whereas pictures on aim have seen a 48.52 p.c decline. Capturing proportion is basically luck-based, however the crew isn’t firing the puck as a lot, so is it stunning that they aren’t scoring?
The Flyers’ possession metrics are additionally value mentioning. The puck was of their zone 53.7 p.c of the time per NHL Edge, which put them within the 87th percentile for 2023-24 (full season). In fact, groups can’t rating in the event that they’re struggling to ascertain possession—that was one thing the Flyers did properly. This season, they’re under the fiftieth percentile with 56.9 p.c of their ice time spent within the defensive zone.
This may occasionally not seem to be a lot, however it exhibits that Philadelphia isn’t fairly as potent of a shorthanded unit as they had been a calendar 12 months in the past. Whereas hope can all the time be stored for his or her capturing proportion to rise, it received’t be sufficient to attain on the ranges of final season—they should have the puck extra. The Flyers are nonetheless pretty good within the offensive division, although.
Now, let’s get to the defensive aspect of the Flyers’ penalty kill. What do the numbers present?
The Flyers’ defensive metrics on the penalty kill are extra notable. That’s as a result of, properly, the aim is to certainly kill the penalty on the finish of the day. Even with a great however removed from elite .878 save proportion when shorthanded, the Orange and Black had been improbable at stopping targets in opposition to final season. Their opposition hardly ever mustered pictures (both on the web or not) and scoring possibilities had been stored to a minimal.
However that has modified this season. The obvious shift is in anticipated targets in opposition to, the place they went from the second-best charge within the NHL to the ninth-worst. It’s not too huge of a shock that they’re in the course of the pack for precise targets in opposition to resulting from this reality. As for save proportion, there’s a discount however it’s not fairly as extreme. Philadelphia’s save proportion is just twenty ninth at even power, so being sixteenth in targets allowed per 60 minutes is a blessing, if something.
General, the Flyers aren’t as efficient offensively or defensively on the penalty kill this season. At this charge, their shorthanded squad will in all probability end proper across the center versus being the most effective in 2023-24.
How Key Flyers Have Performed Individually
Group-wide stats are nice, however how particular person gamers have carried out is value inspecting. Travis Konecny involves thoughts first because the supreme chief of the Flyers’ penalty kill. He led the NHL in shorthanded targets final season and was the centerpiece of the unit. How has he achieved comparatively?
The differentials are minor, admittedly, however Konecny is producing much less. By means of 31 video games final season, he had 5 extra shot makes an attempt, 9 extra pictures on aim, 0.40 extra particular person anticipated targets, and two extra targets scored. He additionally had 5 further takeaways, however a lower in that stat has been a league-wide pattern.
We are able to again up Konecny’s statistical regression with the attention check. He isn’t getting these high-quality possibilities like he was final season, so there was extra of a give attention to residing one other day as an alternative of making an attempt to make one thing occur offensively. He scored and allowed 4 targets when he was on the ice final season, however is now being outscored 8-2. Nevertheless, his on-ice save proportion is just .771 versus the elite .902 he was working with throughout 2023-24. Some higher luck is in retailer for the explosive winger.
Scott Laughton is fairly related right here. He’s not capturing the puck as a lot, not getting as many possibilities, has fewer factors, and has a decreased on-ice save proportion (.898 to .833). The veteran ahead has by no means been a dynamic shorthanded weapon, however he’s had his nice moments—his even-strength struggles final season had been partially nullified resulting from his usefulness on the penalty kill.
All of that is to say that Laughton has really improved defensively. Amongst Flyer skaters with 25 minutes performed, he has the second-best anticipated targets in opposition to per 60 charge this season (7.19) in comparison with the worst (8.74) in his earlier exhibiting.
Forwards Noah Cates, Ryan Poehling, and Garnet Hathaway plus defenseman Nick Seeler have seen their lower-end but priceless shorthanded roles proceed from final season. All 4 of them had anticipated targets in opposition to per 60 charges of beneath 7.00 in 2023-24—every of them has exceeded that complete in 2024-25. Permitting extra possibilities than earlier than, the depth hasn’t been as dependable.
Attending to Cam York and Travis Sanheim, the crew’s reliable prime defensive pairing, issues have gone properly. They’ve been outscored solely 2-0 in 38:39 of ice time when paired, which is sweet. They’re using a .949 on-ice save proportion, although, which ranks first within the NHL amongst defensive pairings on the penalty kill with 25 minutes of utilization. Don’t anticipate the magic to final endlessly. Though, their on-ice capturing proportion is an unfortunate 0.0.
Apparently, little blame may be placed on Samuel Ersson for the save proportion inconsistencies right here. He’s working at a .941 clip on the kill, which is the second-highest out of 41 NHL netminders with 50 minutes performed. By means of the crew’s first 31 video games in 2023-24, he was thirty sixth out of 52 goaltenders in save proportion (.848).
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For the Flyers, some gamers on their penalty kill will get sizzling and a few will cool off. However as a complete, it appears as if their roughly common shorthanded group is one thing that will stick for the remainder of this season. That’s a terrific factor contemplating the place the crew was for a few decade, however the unit almost carried them to the playoffs in 2023-24.
Stats courtesy of Pure Stat Trick (except specified in any other case)
