The Seattle Seahawks are 8-5, main the NFC West, and so they’re additionally one of many unluckiest groups within the NFL.
NFL knowledge analyst Tom Bliss has been charting the online win chance added by way of “luck” performs all season. This contains opposition dropped interceptions (as in, passes thrown by a quarterback that have been dropped by the opposite crew), opposition dropped passes, opposition discipline objectives and further factors, and fumble recoveries by both crew.
As of Week 14, the Seahawks rank twenty ninth in favorable luck.
Luck dashboard through week 14.
Most impactful performs:- TEN dropped go in finish zone on 4th down with 1:15 left in This autumn (+61.6% for JAX)- CAR dropped go with 0:52 left in This autumn (+31.2% for PHI)- MIA made 52-yd FG with 0:12 left in This autumn (-22.4% for NYJ) pic.twitter.com/vVLmngfIeP
— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) December 10, 2024
This can be a flip from final season, when the Seahawks have been close to the highest of the luck charts.
What’s been hurting the Seahawks essentially the most? Turnover luck. Geno Smith has thrown 12 interceptions, however he’s had a couple of tipped passes go into the arms of defensive gamers. If you happen to take a look at the Turnover Worthy Performs on PFF, Geno’s TWP% is simply 2.1%, so passes deemed “interceptable” have principally all been picked. Are you able to depend what number of dropped would-be interceptions Smith has had this yr? It may’t be a excessive quantity.
Dropped passes and missed discipline objectives/further factors have favored the Seahawks, however nothing has been extra damaging to Seattle than fumble luck. They’ve pressured 12 fumbles and solely recovered 4 whereas shedding seven of their very own fumbles. A number of of the fumbles recovered on offense have been wayward Connor Williams snaps or Geno Smith dropping the ball and instantly choosing it up.
One of many greatest moments towards the Seahawks was Josh Allen’s kicked-forward fumble in Week 8, turning what would’ve been a turnover and one other Seattle possession inside Buffalo territory into an eventual Payments landing.
Luck dashboard through week 8.
Most impactful performs:- Dropped interception by BAL with 1:08 in This autumn (+31.7% for CLE)- Dropped go by BAL with 9:30 left in This autumn (+19.8% for CLE)- BUF recovers personal fumble in Q2 vs SEA (+14.5% for BUF, -14.5% for SEA) pic.twitter.com/4iOPDRKJ9B
— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) October 29, 2024
Inexperienced Bay has solely misplaced 4 fumbles on the season, though one got here towards the Detroit Lions final week from Christian Watson. Nonetheless, the opportunistic Packers protection has recovered 12 fumbles, the second-most within the NFL.
I’m of the assumption that ball safety is usually not luck. Fumble recoveries are overwhelmingly luck, and the Seahawks haven’t been in a position to be on the plus aspect of recovering their very own fumbles or getting their opposition’s.
If that adjustments in Seattle’s favor over the previous few weeks, maybe that’ll be a key distinction between a playoff berth and sitting residence after Week 18.
