Chiefs’ defensive projections for the 2025 season

Final week, we crunched the numbers and tried to foretell overs and unders for the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs offense. For probably the most half, we took a fairly constructive outlook on this Chiefs workforce offensively. But when Kansas Metropolis hopes to push for a fourth consecutive Tremendous Bowl look, it should stay one of many league’s prime defensive items.

That stated, there are positively areas the place the workforce can outperform final season — most notably within the move rush, the place they tied the Buffalo Payments and New Orleans Saints with simply 41 complete sacks. That’s a steep drop from their 57 sacks in 2023, and if the Chiefs wish to dominate in 2025, getting again to that stage of strain will likely be important.

Identical to we did with the offense, we’ll study 5 key statistical classes and assign an over-under quantity for every. Then we’ll predict whether or not the Chiefs will doubtless hit and miss it.

Observe: Whereas we closely thought-about previous statistics, this mission is, by definition, rooted in projections and educated guesses.

Sacks

There’s no sugarcoating it: the Chiefs’ protection took a step again on this class. After registering 57 sacks in 2023, they managed simply 41 in 2024, a noticeable drop-off in manufacturing when it got here to getting after opposing quarterbacks 39 instances in 2024. It was the workforce’s lowest sack complete since 2021, after they solely registered 31 sacks.

There have been quite a lot of elements that contributed to the Chiefs’ sack complete final season. One main difficulty was the harm to Charles Omenihu, which stored him out for a lot of the yr. One other was the shortage of an inside move rusher to line up subsequent to Chris Jones, permitting groups to double-team him with minimal consequence.

The workforce addressed this difficulty within the draft, deciding on each Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillotte.

On this mannequin, I’m including +15 sacks to account for the addition of the rookies and Omenihu’s return to well being. Nonetheless, I’m additionally subtracting -6 sacks because of the lack of Turk Wharton.

I’m additionally factoring in that George Karlaftis and Mike Danna are each coming into contract years, which provides motivation to supply.

Projected sacks: 49

My take: Over

The Chiefs topped 50 sacks in each 2022 and 2023. With this infusion of younger expertise and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s love of inventive blitzes, I see Kansas Metropolis returning to the half-century mark once more.

Interceptions

If we take a look at latest Chiefs historical past, we’ll see that they often common someplace between 12 and 13 interceptions per season.

Primarily based on the quarterbacks they’re dealing with — and the place and when these video games occur —you’ll land on the same quantity should you begin crunching the digits. The enhancements at cornerback are offset by the lack of Justin Reid and the lingering questions at security.

So, all issues thought-about, I feel we’re in for a yr that mirrors what the Chiefs did in 2024.

Projected interceptions: 13

My take: Push

The Chiefs’ secondary might very properly enhance with out essentially producing extra turnovers. Extra interceptions can be good, however that’ll largely rely on whether or not the safeties are in over their heads subsequent yr.

Compelled fumbles

Fumbles are humorous as a result of they’re 100% preventable, and but the perfect gamers within the recreation all the time appear to feast when the chance presents itself.

The Chiefs often report 12 pressured fumbles or fewer, and it’s arduous to see them exceeding that quantity this season. An optimistic take would possibly mission one or two extra, particularly with an improved move rush, however I’m not solely offered on that concept.

Projected pressured fumbles: 12

My take: Below

Fumbles are simply too unpredictable. 12 could possibly be the high-water mark, or they might stumble into a couple of extra. That’s the character of the sport.

Defensive touchdowns

This one is even more durable to foretell. You’re basically wanting on the roster and the schedule and making an attempt to guess how most of the 25 mixed fumbles and interceptions will flip into touchdowns.

Historic information suggests it occurs a few instances per season; nonetheless, final yr it solely occurred as soon as.

Then once more, you by no means know the way the ball goes to bounce.

Projected defensive touchdowns: 2

My take: Push

You by no means know when it’s going to occur, however that unpredictability is precisely what makes it so uncommon and enjoyable to look at.

Factors allowed per recreation

The 2024 Chiefs allowed the fourth-fewest factors per recreation, giving up simply 19.2 on common. However in 2025, they’re dealing with a a lot more durable schedule, together with matchups in opposition to the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Payments, to call a couple of.

That’s to not say the Chiefs can’t outperform final season, nevertheless it’s clear the protection has its work reduce out in 2025.

Projected factors allowed per recreation: 20

My take: Over

The Chiefs’ protection overperformed for big stretches final season. It will likely be powerful to copy that stage of execution once more this yr.