The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have been dwelling a charmed life all season. Coming into Sunday evening’s sport towards the Los Angeles Chargers, the two-time defending Tremendous Bowl champions had already set an NFL report with victories in 14 straight one-score video games. And their level differential of +54 was the worst of any 11-1 workforce in professional soccer historical past.
Sunday evening was extra of the identical. The Chiefs obtained out to a 13-0 lead, and it appeared for a break up second that, for as soon as, they might win a sport comfortably. Then, the Chargers got here again, and there have been three lead adjustments within the fourth quarter – all on area objectives. The sport-winner was completely typical for the Chiefs this season: a 31-yard try by backup kicker Matthew Wright, who’s in for the injured Harrison Butker. Wright’s try hooked left, and seemed for all of the world that it will maintain hooking left, leaving Andy Reid’s workforce on the incorrect finish of a 17-16 rating.
However as a result of that is the 2024 Chiefs, the ball doinked off the left upright, rebounded to the suitable and the Chiefs gained 19-17.
Per OPTAStats, Wright was the third Chiefs kicker this season to make a game-winning area objective as time expired in a sport – Wright right here, Butker towards the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2, and Spencer Shrader towards the Carolina Panthers in Week 12. No different NFL workforce has ever had multiple kicker accomplish that in an everyday season in NFL historical past.
Now, the 12-1 Chiefs have the worst level differential for any workforce ever with that report (+56), and so they’ve prolonged their all-time streak of 15 straight wins in one-score video games.
If the Chiefs had been pretty much as good as you’d count on a Tremendous Bowl champion to be, this might nonetheless be ridiculous – the sorts of factor Invoice Belichick’s New England Patriots obtained away with (legally and in any other case) for the higher a part of 20 years. However, a minimum of on the floor, this Chiefs workforce is weaker than those that gained Tremendous Bowls in three of the final 5 seasons.
The Chiefs have been biking via beginning working backs, receivers, and offensive tackles this season. Steve Spagnuolo’s protection, which was the first cause Kansas Metropolis even obtained to final 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl, has fallen off a cliff of late because of accidents and personnel points. And nonetheless, when all the pieces counts, there are 31 NFL groups left questioning simply what black magic the Chiefs obtained themselves into, and the place they’ll get some themselves.
It’s time to look beneath the hood and see what’s powering the Chiefs’ run.
Patrick Mahomes’s chemistry with Travis Kelce
Kelce is in his twelfth NFL season, and the attrition reveals. He’s not as quick or bodily dominant as he was once. However the mind-meld he has constructed over time with Mahomes, who’s now in his eighth season, reveals up time and again in pivotal moments. After the win over the Chargers, Andy Reid highlighted one play that swung issues within the Chiefs’ route. With two minutes left within the sport, Kansas Metropolis had the ball on the Chargers’ 20-yard line. It was third-and-seven, and whereas Wright might need made the game-winner from that area place anyway, the Chiefs had one other challenge – they wished to run the clock down in order that the Chargers wouldn’t have an opportunity to attain once more.
The unique play gave Mahomes the choice to throw the ball to working again Samaje Perine, or run the ball himself. However when the Chargers dropped into inverted Cowl-2 – through which the cornerbacks drop again to take security duties – Mahomes noticed another choice, and that was to hit Kelce for a brief completion of 9 yards, one thing he did with ease. Mahomes then knelt twice to bleed the clock down, and Reid known as the timeout with one second left earlier than Wright made the game-winning kick.
The Chiefs anticipated the Chargers to come back after them on the Mahomes move to Travis Kelce with 2:00 left within the sport. As an alternative, they dropped into Invert-2, and Mahomes threw out the RB Flat/QB Run choices. He had Kelce on the sit route. That arrange the game-winning DOINK. pic.twitter.com/aZ1xaumGHs
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 9, 2024
“I imply, I’ve belief in Pat making these sorts of performs,” Reid mentioned. “He form of mentioned that earlier than the play, simply … ‘I’ll make one thing occur.’”
As typical, Mahomes did. And these performs are about greater than random schoolyard soccer. Whenever you do it this usually and this constantly, it’s actually about two all-time nice gamers who know one another’s minds, and a head coach who believes in them.
The Chiefs are ridiculously good on third down
Talking of profitable conversions, as inconsistent because the Chiefs have been on each side of the ball, they’ve the NFL’s most dominant offense on third down, which permits them to maintain drives regardless of the near-total absence of explosive performs. Anticipated Factors Added (EPA) is a metric that measures how nicely a workforce performs in comparison with expectations on a play-to-play foundation. This season, the Chiefs rank twelfth in offensive EPA per play on first down (-0.01), seventeenth on second down (-0.08), and first on third down (+0.29).
What does that imply in a sensible sense? The Chiefs have had 194 third downs this season, and so they’ve transformed 101 into firsts. That conversion fee of 52.1% is the NFL’s finest. And it confirmed up on that game-winning drive towards the Chargers. With 4:20 left, the Chiefs had third-and-10 at their very own 40-yard line after two straight Mahomes incompletions. Right here, the Chargers dropped into Cowl-3 (zone with a single-high security), and despatched a four-man rush at Mahomes with defenders in all the suitable locations in protection. In fact, Mahomes placed on his wizard hat, and countered with an unreal 14-yard completion to Xavier Worthy.
Oh, and there’s extra: the Chiefs rank third in offensive EPA per play on fourth down (+1.46, behind solely the Washington Commanders and the Buffalo Payments), when issues go that far.
Steve Spagnuolo has gone utterly old-school
This previous offseason, the Chiefs traded prime cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans, and moved Trent McDuffie from major slot defender (the place he was most likely the NFL’s finest at his place) to extra of an out of doors position. There have been accidents and rising pains consequently, and the transition is a major cause Kansas Metropolis’s protection has regressed mightily. Since Week 10, solely the Cincinnati Bengals have ranked decrease defensively in FTN’s opponent-adjusted effectivity metrics.
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How has Spagnuolo responded? By going all the best way again to the Sixties and Seventies, when zone defenses had been comparatively new in professional soccer, and aggressive press protection was the order of the day. This season, the Chiefs have had a minimum of one cornerback in press protection on 88% of their snaps, by far the NFL’s highest fee, and the NFL’s highest fee since 2021, when Spagnuolo’s Chiefs pressed a minimum of one receiver 90% of the time.
Cornerbacks who play that a lot press protection are vulnerable to getting overwhelmed extra usually, as a result of there’s no room to recuperate earlier than participating the receiver. However Spags doesn’t care, and whereas numerous defensive coaches could be extra prone to again off, that isn’t the case right here. On Monday, the Chiefs signed Steven Nelson, the veteran cornerback who retired after the 2023 season, and has been one of many league’s higher press cornerbacks.
Overlook doubling down; the Chiefs are going exponential right here. And we’ve seen Spags put all of it collectively on the proper time earlier than. In reality, we noticed it final season once they gained the Tremendous Bowl.
Final Christmas, the Chiefs determined they’d had sufficient of this rubbish
Per NFL Analysis, it’s not uncommon to win by the smallest of increments. So perhaps it’s the league that’s bending to the Chiefs’ curve versus the opposite means round.
Seven video games in Week 14 had been determined by six or fewer factors. The Chiefs, the Detroit Lions, and the Miami Dolphins gained on the ultimate performs of their video games. In reality, 99 video games this season have been determined by six or fewer factors, essentially the most via Week 14 in NFL historical past.
The league at all times needs as a lot parity as potential, and that’s actually occurring now. It’s solely becoming that the champs are the personification of such. However as Chiefs CEO Clark Hunt remembered after the Expenses win, it hasn’t at all times been this manner.
“I’m actually glad that we’ve ended up on the profitable aspect of these video games,” Hunt mentioned. “As we’ve been going via it, I’ve thought so much about final 12 months the place we had numerous shut video games and so they tended to go the opposite means. We actually had a difficult stretch.”
Earlier than their wonderful streak started, the Chiefs had been 4-5 in one-score video games in 2023. The final Kansas Metropolis loss in that sort of sport got here on Christmas Day 2023, a 20-14 deficit in favor of the inferior Las Vegas Raiders. Kansas Metropolis gave up two defensive touchdowns, and made all of the errors they haven’t made since with turnovers, missed area objectives, and terrible third-down effectivity (5 of 16).
The Chiefs had been embarrassed and pissed off, and there was one thing transformative about that debacle. Or perhaps they simply went from being unfortunate – shedding shut video games in 2023 – to fortunate – profitable shut video games in 2024. It is also, because the poet John Milton first mentioned, that “Luck is the residue of design.” They’ve the remainder of the season to additional show how a lot design is behind all that success.
Will the pattern proceed?
It’s not that the Chiefs have been doing all this voodoo towards chumps. Their schedule up to now has been center of the pack so far as opponent-adjusted energy, and that may proceed via the remainder of the common season.
Maybe the sternest check within the common season will come on Christmas Day, when the Chiefs journey to Pittsburgh to fulfill the 10-3 Steelers, who’re greater than able to dominating on each side of the ball with a stern protection, and Russell Wilson enjoying just like the Russell Wilson of outdated. Possibly the Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, or Denver Broncos (who already misplaced to the Chiefs 16-14 in Week 10 on a last-second blocked area objective) may provide you with a efficiency that engenders a fluke win. However we’re attending to the purpose the place we gained’t be utterly stunned if these guys run the desk.
Additionally, the Chiefs clinched the AFC West after their win over the Chargers, and so they’re the convention’s No 1 seed. Which signifies that if all the pieces stays the place it’s, the street to the Tremendous Bowl will undergo Arrowhead Stadium, one thing no workforce within the NFL needs outdoors Kansas Metropolis. Even the Buffalo Payments, the one workforce at hand the Chiefs a loss this season – a 30-21 sport in Week 11 – did so on their very own residence turf.
It’s yet one more instance of the Chiefs’ “luck” that’s way over simply luck. Will the Chiefs wrestle within the postseason with out an uptick in efficiency in a minimum of one class? Positive, however if you issue within the tangibles and the intangibles, it will be extraordinarily unwise to wager towards them, irrespective of how weak they could look.
