Juan Soto’s bat speed decline threatens Mets’ $765 million investment

Juan Soto’s bat has slowed by 2.4 mph this season, and that seemingly small quantity is threatening to show the Mets’ $765 million funding into baseball’s costliest disappointment. 

By means of Sunday’s video games, the previous Yankees slugger who terrorized fastballs en path to the World Sequence final October now seems utterly misplaced towards the identical pitches that after made him elite.

The numbers inform a stark story. Soto is slashing a pedestrian .248/.374/.396 with three house runs and a .770 OPS. His OPS+ sits at 122 — above league common (100) however nowhere close to the MVP-caliber 178 OPS+ he posted with the Yankees final season when he slashed .288/.419/.569.

When the Mets signed Soto to his 15-year megadeal, they anticipated manufacturing mirroring his 2024 Yankees marketing campaign that earned him third place in AL MVP voting. As a substitute, they’ve obtained a shadow of that participant, and the offender seems clear: his diminished bat velocity is hampering his means to deal with fastballs.

For informal followers questioning why bat velocity issues a lot, consider it this manner: these additional milliseconds make the distinction between catching as much as a 95 mph fastball or fouling it off, between driving the ball with authority or making weak contact. It is the distinction between the Soto who modified video games with one swing and the present model struggling to impression outcomes.

The decline in bat velocity (from 75.4 mph in 2024 to 73.0 mph this season per Baseball Savant) has cascaded by his efficiency metrics. 12 months-over-year, his hard-hit charge has tumbled from 57 p.c to 50 p.c, whereas his barrel proportion has nosedived from an elite 19.7 p.c to a pedestrian six p.c. 

In baseball’s data-driven period, these aren’t simply numbers however warning flares.

Most revealing is Soto’s efficiency towards fastballs, beforehand his bread and butter. Final season, he demolished heaters to the tune of a .333 common with 31 house runs and a .709 slugging proportion. 

Yankees followers nonetheless keep in mind his ALCS-clinching blast off a 95.2 mph four-seamer that left his bat at 109.7 mph and traveled a projected 402 ft.