After Saturday’s Closing 4 delivered in spades, No. 1 seeds Florida and Houston are set to sq. off within the NCAA match’s nationwide championship recreation on Monday evening.
Florida overcame a nine-point first-half deficit to down Auburn with a dominant second half, whereas Houston pulled off a very unbelievable comeback within the closing eight minutes to knock off a Duke group that entered the weekend because the overwhelming favourite to win all of it.
How They Acquired Right here
Houston
The place are you able to even begin with what transpired on Saturday evening? Down 59-45 with 8:34 remaining, the Coogs appeared lifeless.
Over the subsequent eight minutes, Houston fought simply onerous sufficient to offer itself a puncher’s likelihood with below a minute to go. When you may even name it that. Down 67-61 with 0:42 remaining, ESPN’s win likelihood calculator gave Houston a meager 7.7 % likelihood to tug of the comeback.
Then, all hell broke free. Houston’s full-court press despatched Duke right into a state of shell shock and the Coogs went on a go-ahead 7-0 run in 15 seconds to take a 68-67 on a pair of J’Wan Roberts free throws with 0:19 remaining.
Houston held Duke to a single made discipline purpose within the final 10:31 of the sport. Six days earlier, it held Tennessee to simply 15 factors within the first half, an all-time low for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in NCAA match historical past. Protection wins championships and Houston has, bar none, the very best protection in faculty basketball.
Kelvin Sampson is making his first look within the nationwide championship recreation in 32 seasons as a high-level Division I basketball coach. Sampson first introduced Oklahoma to the Closing 4 in 2002, the place the Sooners misplaced within the semifinals as 7-point favorites towards a No. 5 seed Indiana group enjoying Cinderella. He returned 19 years later for the primary time with Houston in 2021, however the Coogs have been blown out by eventual champion Baylor.
When Sampson took over the Houston program in 2014, it was nationally irrelevant within the AAC and a shell of what it was within the Phi Slamma Jama days. There’s a video of Sampson strolling round campus shortly after his rent, exchanging fist bumps for guarantees from college students that they might attend the basketball group’s residence opener.
Simply over a decade later, Houston is the premier program within the Massive 12 and enjoying in its first nationwide championship recreation since Hakeem Olajuwon fell brief towards Patrick Ewing and Georgetown in 1984
Florida
Florida entered the season an entire afterthought in nationwide championship discussions. The Gators have been ranked twenty first within the preseason AP Ballot and entered the season with +6000 odds to win the nationwide championship, in the identical ballpark as Rutgers and Xavier groups that missed the NCAA Match solely.
39-year-old Florida coach Todd Golden has gone from ending below .500 in his maiden voyage with the Gators in 2022 to main this system to its third nationwide championship recreation look three seasons later. Golden additionally navigated the Gators by way of a traditionally loaded SEC match, a feat arguably as troublesome as successful the NCAA match this season, given how a lot of a gauntlet the convention was.
Walter Clayton Jr. has emerged because the star of this 12 months’s match, incomes rightful Kemba Walker comparisons after mentioning how Walker’s 2011 run with UConn impressed him.
Clayton scored 34 factors to guide Florida again from an eight-point halftime deficit towards Auburn on Saturday. Clayton Jr. additionally scored 30 factors in Florida’s insane comeback towards Texas Tech within the Elite 8, thus turning into the primary participant since Larry Hen in 1979 to attain 30+ factors in each the Elite 8 and the Closing 4 (in response to ESPN Stats and Data).
By way of @ESPNStatsInfo: Walter Clayton Jr. is the primary participant with back-to-back 30-point video games within the Elite Eight and nationwide semifinals since Larry Hen in 1979.
— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) April 6, 2025
Florida has proven all through the match that you could by no means actually matter them out. The Gators have been down 10 factors with simply over 5 minutes remaining towards Texas Tech earlier than Clayton Jr., Thomas Haugh and Alijah Martin in some way led all of them the way in which again.
The Gators appeared principally out of it within the first half of their Closing 4 win over Auburn, however they have been utterly dominant within the second half. They outscored the Tigers, 41-27, within the body for what ended up being a six-point win.
Keys To The Recreation
Florida
The Gators are going to want Clayton Jr. to play just like the first-round NBA draft decide he’s hoping to be in April. The final two video games have confirmed that regardless of the entire surrounding expertise, this group goes as Clayton Jr. goes.
Houston confirmed it could possibly deal with the nation’s highest-rated offense in Duke, holding the Blue Devils to simply 70 factors, so Florida’s No. 2 ranked offense isn’t going to overwhelm the Cougars. This recreation goes to come back right down to a few-minute-long stretch within the second half, the place Clayton Jr. will both put the bow on his Kemba-like run or Houston will stifle him prefer it did Duke and Tennessee.
Houston
Cliche, however the Cougars must play their finest defensive recreation of the season. Whereas the Duke recreation proved they’ll suffocate the nation’s top-ranked offense, Duke doesn’t have a scorer as efficient as Clayton Jr. is, particularly within the largest moments. If Houston can maintain him from going one in every of his signature second-half runs, it has an important likelihood of successful this factor.
Championship Recreation Prediction
Duke might have gotten all of the hype because the traditionally nice group going into this weekend, however the reality is Houston was at all times proper there with them in that regard. After Saturday’s win, the Cougars now have the next KenPom ranking than 26 of the final 27 nationwide champions and enter the nationwide championship recreation on an 18-game successful streak.
Florida’s lethargy at instances on this match has apprehensive me. The Gators have confirmed that no lead is protected towards them, however Houston is a group that may flip a few possessions with no basket right into a seven-minute scoring drought. I believe the Cougars maintain Clayton Jr. human for probably the most half and win this one 75-70 or in that vary.
