What Would a Vladito Contract Look Like?

In a typically bleak 2024 season for the Toronto Blue Jays, one of many few brilliant spots in that Kafkaesque wasteland was the return of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a pressure to be reckoned with within the lineup. Guerrero adopted up his MVP-caliber efficiency in 2021 with a solid-but-underwhelming 2022 season and a below-average 2023, and there have been actual questions on his worth as a participant as he neared his anticipated free company after the 2025 marketing campaign. His .323/.396/.544, 165 wRC+, 5.5 WAR line final 12 months was a dramatic demonstration that his 2021 season was much more than a stone-cold fluke. Free company beckons, and the Blue Jays are right down to the final 12 months of his companies earlier than he reaches the open market. Guerrero set the deadline to work out an extension with Toronto for February 17, and that date has come and gone with out an settlement.

My colleague, and notable non-pitcher, Mike Baumann wrote concerning the dangers and rewards of signing Guerrero to a long-term deal from the views of each events, so that you must learn that for additional exposition on the subject. We’re hear to place the worry into numbers, the numbers into {dollars}, and the {dollars} again into worry!

The query of a Guerrero contract is a tough one, as there are elements that each strongly urge and forcefully condemn the concept of giving him a monster deal. And except he has a horrible 2025 season, a monster deal is what he’ll get; he already turned down a $340 million provide in December that he characterised as “not even shut” to what he’s in search of. As long as he and his illustration don’t negotiate like Homer Simpson, we are able to presume that his desired quantity is considerably greater than that!

Usually talking, this isn’t a good time to be a right-right first baseman in free company. When Pete Alonso hit free company, the ZiPS projections prompt solely a three-year, $66 million deal for him, or $77 million unfold out over 4 years in a impartial park. However I used to be really assured that his pedigree was sufficient that at the least one staff would give him a contract that may handily beat these numbers. Seems, that was not the case. As Baumann lays out in his piece, Guerrero is “a greater participant by some margin” than Alonso, however as a bat-only first baseman, Guerrero does face an analogous danger that his companies will likely be value considerably much less on the open market than he expects.

On the flip facet, Guerrero is greater than 4 years youthful than Alonso is now, and his relative youth ought to be extraordinarily useful for him when he reaches free company forward of his age-27 season. Solely three of the 110 batters listed on our free agent tracker this offseason are youthful than 27, and 92 of these 110 hitters (83.6%) will likely be at the least 30 for the 2025 marketing campaign.

So let’s begin off the projectionating with a fictional assemble for instance the purpose: What if Guerrero had been 4 years older than his precise age? Right here is the long run ZiPS projection for a free agent Guerrero, if he had been 31 years previous for the 2026 season. I’m going with a impartial park for these projections.

With nonetheless a full season to go earlier than free company, ZiPS would solely be interested by providing this older model of Guerrero a contract value round $100 million. It additionally primarily could be interested by solely the primary 5 years. Now, let’s examine that to the precise projection.

Given his up-and-down profession, ZiPS isn’t comfy sufficient to present Guerrero what the Blue Jays provided, however the system nonetheless would provide him a deal value practically 3 times as a lot as it might give the hypothetical 31-year-old Vladito. However simply to get a 3rd take a look at a Guerrero projection, let’s mission 2026 by way of 2034 with the belief that he places up the identical numbers in 2025 that he did final season.

With a repeat of his 2024 season, ZiPS is much more assured in Guerrero’s future, including sufficient to get to the $400 million mark over 9 years, with the remainder of his profession after that time tacking on one other $100 million. Whereas it’s not universally true, skilled athletes are typically fairly assured of their skills, and the extension negotiations so far look loads like Vladito is expressing his perception in himself. The Blue Jays additionally clearly consider in him greater than ZiPS does – you don’t provide $340 million to gamers you don’t assume will likely be value it – however their provide additionally probablly had one thing to do with their worry of the implications if they don’t signal him. So, what do the Jays appear to be in a future with out Guerrero and Bo Bichette, who can be set free of charge company after this season?

To reply this query, I did an absurdly early 2026 ZiPS projected standings run, based mostly on no staff having any of their at present unsigned gamers for 2026.

ZiPS already tasks the 2025 Blue Jays because the weakest time within the AL East, however one which’s solely a recreation or two behind the Rays and Crimson Sox, and solely seven video games again within the division. However come 2026, ZiPS consider Toronto’s hand is way weaker, with ageing and free agent departures projected to severely diminish the staff’s manufacturing, particularly in comparison with its AL East rivals. Positive, if the Blue Jays determine to not pay Guerrero, they’ll release practically $30 million to spend on a substitute, however after their a number of makes an attempt so as to add high-profile free brokers these final two offseasons, they know in addition to anybody that it takes greater than cash to signal superstars. Everybody who needs to spent $150,000 on a Porsche can get a Porsche, but when one other staff needs to signal Juan Soto for three-quarters of a billion bucks, and he chooses that membership as an alternative, he’s gone for good, with no related gamers accessible. Guerrero represents the identical dilemma, although he received’t make near Soto cash; only a few star offensive gamers are hitting free company over the following few years. Listed here are the hitters who’re at present eligible to turn into free brokers after both 2025 or 2026, ranked by projected OPS+ from 2026 to 2028.

Of the highest 100 gamers by projected 2026-2028 OPS+, solely 11 will likely be free brokers (Happ is ranked 102nd), and that’s if the Rangers don’t choose up Pederson’s choice for 2027. Even considering Guerrero’s inconsistent profession, there doesn’t seem like anybody on the market you’d prefer to pay as a lot as him. That’s why the ZiPS projected contracts for Guerrero are seemingly significantly under what he’ll really get.

So now the Blue Jays discover themselves at a crossroads. Personally, I feel their failure to signal Guerrero earlier than his deadline ought to be handled because the deadly blow to the group — not only for the following few years, however for this one as properly. Numerous issues would wish to go proper for Toronto to show a Guerrero-less roster right into a severe AL East menace if he leaves as a free agent. Contemplating this, the Jays could be higher off buying and selling Guerrero — they’d virtually definitely get a wonderful return bundle for him — to retool for an additional run two or three years from now, although that may all however formally take them out of competition for the 2025 marketing campaign. No matter occurs, as a result of the Blue Jays didn’t lengthen the face of their franchise, that is shaping as much as be their most consequential season because the mid-Nineteen Nineties.