How do the 2024-25 Boston Celtics compare to their championship predecessors at this time last year?

The NBA’s All-Star break has come and gone, and because the mud settles on one other weird and idiosyncratic weekend of festivities, the Boston Celtics return to the court docket tonight. They’ll kick off their stretch run on TNT in opposition to the Philadelphia 76ers, and as we put together for the final two-ish months of normal season basketball, it appears like a great alternative to look again to final season’s workforce on the similar benchmark. How do these Celtics evaluate to their championship selves from final yr?

Let’s get the only truth out of the way in which first: the Celtics return to play with a file of 39-16, a mark that falls wanting the 43-12 they posted heading into the break final season. The four-game distinction within the win column doesn’t absolutely illustrate the distinction in how this workforce feels to many, relative to final yr. We’ve seen them battle for a notable chunk of the yr, which is one thing that simply didn’t occur final season.

Late December into January is clearly the place the separation level takes form. The Celtics misplaced three out of 4 video games beginning on December 19 in opposition to Chicago — together with their first consecutive losses of the season — and suffered seven extra losses from that time via the top of January. Inside that span of time, their longest win streak was simply three video games. They simply couldn’t develop any consistency, profitable 30+ level blowouts one evening and dropping disappointing losses the following.

That is the form of stretch that final season’s championship workforce merely by no means had. Consistency was the superpower of the 2023-24 Celtics. They didn’t lose consecutive video games for the primary time final season till March 7, a outstanding feat that helped them carry the highest spot within the Jap Convention wire-to-wire to such an extent that it was by no means in any severe doubt. That is maybe the largest cause why this yr’s workforce is perceived as being a step or two behind. They made all of it look impossibly straightforward.

Curiously sufficient, the championship workforce’s largest “stoop,” comparatively talking, occurred in the identical time span as this workforce’s. After opening the season a ridiculous 26-6 via the top of 2023, the Celtics matched that loss complete over the following 23 video games, going 17-6 heading into All-Star Weekend. It’s a joke to recommend a win proportion of almost 74% qualifies as a stoop, however it’s not rather more of 1 than what the Celtics truly did to the Jap Convention final yr.

Peripheral numbers related recommend a slight step again for this yr’s model of the roster, however not a lot of 1. They’ve recorded a internet score of +9.2 per NBA Stats, which is a decline from final yr’s +10.3. As a lot as they’ve sank again, although, the remainder of the NBA has extra considerably surged forward. That +9.2 mark would have nonetheless comfortably led basketball final season; the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder have been a distant second place at +7.3. This yr, it ranks third — the Thunder lead the pack with a ridiculous +12.8, and the Cleveland Cavaliers maintain second place at +10.4. The Celtics’ competitors has risen to their championship degree greater than they themselves have lagged behind it.

One notable shift has been the Celtics’ elevated reliance on the three-pointer. Already the league’s most prolific workforce from deep, Joe Mazzulla has them letting it fly much more regularly this season. Three-pointers accounted for 47% of Boston’s photographs as of the All-Star break final season; this yr, that’s risen to 53%. It is a comically excessive proportion of threes, even for a workforce as expert behind the arc as this. Three-pointers are essentially inconsistent; the very sweetest shooters nonetheless solely put the ball within the internet a bit greater than 40% of the time.

One potential issue would appear to contribute to this: the Kristaps Porzingis harm. Boston’s premiere paint risk, the engine behind their hyper-efficient publish assault final yr, Porzingis didn’t take the court docket till November 25 as he recovered from offseason surgical procedure. One would naturally assume that their unicorn middle’s month-plus absence would have a notable impact on the dynamics of the Celtics’ offense.

The one drawback is that assumption doesn’t bear out within the stats. Narrowing the pattern to Porzingis’ debut onward, the Celtics’ proportion of three-point photographs drops only one %, to 52%. They’re nonetheless taking up half their photographs from behind the arc with Porzingis on the court docket, and their offense ranks simply sixth within the NBA in offensive score since he returned, in keeping with NBA Stats.

The Celtics don’t have to essentially restructure their offense. As at the moment constructed, after they’re clicking from deep, they completely demolish their opponents. They’re simply not clicking fairly as usually as final yr. A few of that is sheer variance that might right itself — does anyone actually count on Jaylen Brown to proceed to shoot 3% worse from vary than he did final season? However they’re additionally giving themselves fewer different choices when the photographs aren’t falling than ever earlier than. Reemphasizing the paint assault looks like an apparent button for Mazzulla to press within the second half, and will assist lend some scoring consistency.

Maybe essentially the most putting distinction between the 2 season is the Celtics’ efficiency on their residence court docket. This season’s workforce has posted only a 17-10 file at TD Backyard, a precipitous fall from the workforce’s biggest energy one yr prior. Final yr’s Celtics have been nigh-unstoppable on the parquet flooring, beginning out the season with 20 consecutive residence wins — the most effective residence begin in workforce historical past — and hitting the break at 26-3.

Curiously, these Celtics have nearly totally flipped the script. This yr, they’ve been street warriors. They’re 22-6 exterior of Boston, contrasting a 17-9 file on the street at this level final yr. After their January struggles, sturdy performances on the street have helped proper the ship. They’ve scored high quality street wins over the Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks, Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks amidst a 10-3 stretch heading into All-Star Weekend.

Taking part in on the street naturally has a better diploma of problem than enjoying on your own home court docket, and you need to go all the way in which again to 1972 to discover a season the place they completed with a greater street win proportion (80.5%) than this yr’s 78.6%. That’s not the form of tempo you’ll be able to plan on sustaining, particularly within the trendy NBA.

Of all of the discrepancies between these two iterations of the workforce, although, this feels just like the most definitely to kind itself out. The Celtics have all the time loved a powerful residence court docket benefit at TD Backyard. Other than the COVID-impacted 2020-21 season, Gerald Wallace was carrying Celtics inexperienced the final time they recorded residence win charge worse than this season’s 63%. It feels secure to wager that this workforce will discover some higher outcomes at TD Backyard throughout the rest of the season, which ought to counterbalance any form of regression of their efficiency on the street.

In all, I believe it’s truthful to say this workforce’s expertise continues to be evident, however it’s not being maximized to such an extent as final yr. There’s clearly nonetheless fruit on the tree to be picked. So the place will we go from right here? For the champs, the remaining 2.5 months of basketball after the break have been, ahem, fruitful. They went 22-6 the remainder of the way in which, by no means taking their ft off the gasoline regardless of a large lead within the convention down the stretch. Everyone knows what occurred after that.

Will this yr’s Celtics workforce comply with go well with? This season’s outcomes haven’t been as constant, and the competitors within the Jap Convention has notably tightened — there was no one pretty much as good as this yr’s Cleveland Cavaliers in final season’s discipline. They don’t have the chance to coast to the highest seed once more; overcoming Cleveland’s present 5.5-game benefit can be its personal problem. The margin of error goes to be a lot decrease, and the stakes a lot larger — although a workforce with this a lot postseason expertise shouldn’t discover themselves uncomfortable with that state of affairs.

Nonetheless, regardless of the vibes being usually extra unsure after January, there are many indicators to recommend that this Boston Celtics workforce is at or close to the very prime of the championship contender hierarchy. They continue to be stacked with expertise, they’ve the peripherals you wish to see from a workforce with championship hopes, and, maybe most significantly (knock on wooden), they’re wholesome. I believe we will count on this workforce to shut the season sturdy, and a return journey to the NBA Finals ought to proceed to be the expectation as long as the established order stays the identical.