Congratulations to the 99% of NFL pundits and followers whose preseason predictions have lengthy made their manner by means of the rubbish disposal. Sadly, the NFL writers for the Guardian don’t have any such luck. Our villainous editors are forcing us to show again the clock to early September to revisit our season predictions (you possibly can learn them in full right here).
Whereas we’d like to take a victory lap and say we noticed all of the twists and turns coming, that’s not precisely the case (although we did nail just a few). So, let’s rip off the Band-Support and see how our prognostications panned out.
Finest group that received’t make the playoffs
What we stated earlier than the season: We thought the Jets, Colts, and Bears can be good, however not adequate. We additionally picked a ten to 11 win season for the Bears, pondering they might solely miss the postseason attributable to their highly effective division. Conversely, considered one of us thought Buffalo might miss out “provided that the offense is weaker with no blue-chip prospect.”
What truly occurred: The Jets and Bears struggled from the beginning and fired their head coaches earlier than December. Each franchises completed 5-12 and have many points to restore earlier than even desirous about a playoff run. The Colts narrowly missed out, ending 8-9 in an AFC South the place hovering proper beneath .500 lands you in playoff rivalry. As for the Payments, who earned an AFC Championship berth, their offense was something however weak due to NFL MVP Josh Allen. Solely the Detroit Lions scored extra factors than Buffalo this season.
MVP
What we stated earlier than the season: Patrick Mahomes or CJ Stroud? Our writers had been break up. We picked Mahomes due to a “rejuvenated offense” and since “he nonetheless can lead the Chiefs to these inexplicable comeback victories.” Stroud obtained votes as a result of we thought his new offensive weapons, Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs, might catapult the second-year slinger to 30-plus touchdowns.
What truly occurred: Allen (27 first-place votes) narrowly received the award over Lamar Jackson (23 first-place votes). The Chiefs offense, in the meantime, was something however rejuvenated. Mahomes’ reference to Travis Kelce waned because the season wore on. Although Mahomes pulled a rabbit out the hat many occasions this season, it was the Kansas Metropolis protection that led the best way. Stroud’s shiny new wideout, Diggs, tore his ACL in October. Stroud threw 20 touchdowns and whereas he confirmed flashes of greatness, he was additionally on the bottom loads and regressed from his very good rookie season.
Rookie to look at
What we stated earlier than the season: We devoured the Caleb Williams hype, with two of us salivating on the quarterback’s offensive weapons. We additionally gave a nod to Colts’ defensive finish Laiatu Latu, believing he might contact double-digit sacks in his debut marketing campaign. One in every of our writers was sage sufficient to see the greatness of Jayden Daniels early, believing his numbers can be boosted due to Washington usually “enjoying from behind.”
What truly occurred: Williams had a subpar rookie marketing campaign, marred by unhealthy teaching and holding on to the ball too lengthy. He was sacked a whopping 68 occasions, the third-most in NFL historical past. Latu, the primary defender taken within the 2024 draft, was disappointing with simply 16 solo tackles and 4 sacks. The house for disruptive rookie defenders proved to be in Los Angeles as Rams outdoors linebacker Jared Verse received Defensive Rookie of the 12 months honors. His teammate, Braden Fiske, completed third. Daniels, the clear Offensive Rookie of the 12 months, was an absolute revelation. He led the Commanders to a 7-2 begin, capped off by a Hail Mary win over Chicago. It quickly turned clear that the dual-threat Daniels was a generational expertise.
AFC East champion
What we stated earlier than the season: One in every of us believed the “indefatigable” Allen would lead Buffalo to a different AFC East title. Two of us picked the Dolphins, extra as an indictment of Buffalo’s protection, “for the primary time within the Sean McDermott period, they’re missing capacity and depth at linebacker and security.” Then there’s the author who didn’t even point out the Payments and thought the Jets would take the title as a result of the “sky’s the restrict.” Be good: the identical author was first on the Daniels bandwagon.
What truly occurred: The Dolphins completed beneath .500 in a division the place half the groups are rebuilding and, shocker, capped off the season with Tyreek Hill dropping by the wayside. Buffalo ran away with the division.
AFC North champion
What we stated earlier than the season: Most of us picked the Ravens with some heavy doting on Jackson (“Explosive! Sensational!”), although we did see some potential weak spots with Baltimore’s “brittle offensive line; and a brand new, first-time defensive coordinator.” One vote went to the Bengals primarily based largely on Burrow’s renewed well being. His blond hair solely added to the swagger. Not a phrase about Pittsburgh or Cleveland.
What truly occurred: The Ravens took the AFC North title for the second-straight yr. Jackson, who proved unattainable to comprise, put up higher numbers than his two MVP years. Derrick Henry was a juggernaut, ending along with his highest yards per carry whole of his profession. The Bengals began gradual however completed with a five-game win streak and narrowly missed the playoffs. Nevertheless it was Mike Tomlin and the Steelers who proved once more to be a mannequin of consistency (some may say constantly above common however not spectacular). There was loads to love in regards to the 10-7 Steelers, who earned a playoff bid, even when they fizzled on the ultimate stretch.
AFC South champion
What we stated earlier than the season: It was a Texans sweep for our writers who all believed Stroud’s encore to his rookie season can be particular, and that “Houston’s protection will rise to match Stroud and the offense.” There was no love for the Jaguars who our writers predicted would “plummet” below “one-hit marvel head coach Doug Pederson.”
What truly occurred: Right here’s one thing we don’t get to say usually on this house – we had been proper! Aside from hapless New England and Dallas, Houston didn’t dominate anybody or upset any juggernauts on the best way to the AFC South crown. However at 10-7, they obtained the job accomplished. We had been additionally proper on the protection making strides; they completed sixth within the league with 315 whole yards allowed per sport. As for the Jags, their protection was among the many NFL’s worst and Pederson was let go after an embarrassing 4-13 season.
AFC West champion
What we stated earlier than the season: Did anybody have the heart to select anybody aside from the house owners of the division for nearly a decade? No manner. We identified that the Jim Harbaugh-Justin Herbert pairing was intriguing, however the remainder of the Chargers roster was “barren … Exterior the offensive line, the group is both gradual or outdated.” Yeah, clear sweep for the Chiefs.
What truly occurred: Shocker, the Chiefs received the division but once more, however this iteration of the AFC West was arguably the perfect in soccer, together with the NFC North. It wasn’t fairly as fairly as normal for the Chiefs with a struggling offense and holes throughout the board. However wins are wins and Kansas Metropolis collected 15 of them, together with two in opposition to the Chargers, their greatest divisional menace. The Harbaugh-Herbert pairing was as marketed – till the playoffs anyway – and the protection outperformed expectations within the first half of the season. At 11-6, Los Angeles secured the No 5 seed, whereas the stunning Denver Broncos snagged a 3rd AFC playoff spot at 10-7. Denver and Sean Payton seem to have discovered their man in rookie Bo Nix.
NFC East champion
What we stated earlier than the season: All 4 of us picked the Eagles, although considered one of thought of Dallas for a second. We liked the additions of Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio to Nick Sirianni’s workers and agreed that the Eagles “have probably the most full roster within the division – maybe the entire convention.”
What truly occurred: We had been proper. The 14-3 Eagles soared to a different division title due to such an entire and gifted roster. Weirdly, the Eagles flew a bit below the radar within the common season, regardless of Saquon Barkley’s historic run aided by the perfect offensive line in soccer, a punishing defensive entrance 4, and two of the perfect coordinators in soccer. What we didn’t see coming had been the Commanders, who earned a playoff berth at 12-5. Daniels was the story, however Dan Quinn deserves quite a lot of credit score for fast-forwarding a rebuild after Washington completed 4-13 in 2023.
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NFC North champion
What we stated earlier than the season: One in every of us thought the Packers had been poised for a division crown. “The protection upgraded within the secondary this offseason and that ought to filter by means of the remainder of what has been an unreliable unit.” The remainder of us picked the Lions. We thought the “insane defensive position starring Aidan Hutchinson and a (hopefully wholesome quickly) DJ Reader … will catapult the Lions to a deep playoff run” however did acknowledge a “momentous battle could possibly be within the making between Detroit and Inexperienced Bay.” One in every of us anticipated “Chicago to make some noise as nicely.” We did undertaking that three groups would end with no less than 10 wins although didn’t specify which three.
What truly occurred: Three NFC North groups did, in truth, high 10 wins. The division winner Lions completed 15-2 due to their 33.2 factors scored per sport, probably the most within the NFL. Coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn had been wizards, with Glenn’s protection surviving the lack of its finest participant in Hutchinson. Inexperienced Bay hung in there at 11-6 and completed third however struggled mightily with no bona fide WR1. It was the Sam Darnold-led 14-3 Vikings who helped Minnesota end as division runners-up. Darnold appeared like a modified quarterback for the primary 17 weeks of the season earlier than imploding in Week 18 in opposition to Detroit with the division title and residential subject on the road. Chicago, with simply 5 wins, completed in some deep crevice of the division’s basement.
NFC South champion
What we stated earlier than the season: Three of us picked Tampa “by default.” We stated some good issues about Baker Mayfield however largely wished to maneuver on. One daring soul picked the Falcons. “Kirk Cousins can unlock Kyle Pitts and Drake London’s huge potential.”
What truly occurred: 10-7 was greater than sufficient for Tampa to take the division. Mayfield was enjoyable to look at however you by no means obtained the sense this group might make a deep playoff run, particularly with an atrocious go protection. Atlanta completed 8-9 however Cousins deteriorated because the season wore on and was ultimately benched for rookie Michael Penix Jr.
NFC West champion
What we stated earlier than the season: All of us picked the 49ers coming off their Tremendous Bowl look. We thought San Francisco would “roll to the division title” with its “all-star forged.” Seattle’s explosive offensive intrigued us and most of us thought the Rams can be within the combine, “incomes a house playoff sport.” One in every of us wasn’t bought on the “Rams having a repeat of final yr’s shock with no Aaron Donald round.”
What truly occurred: The 49ers shockingly fell from first to worst, occupying the NFC West basement for the primary time since 2020. So many issues went flawed for San Francisco, from Christian McCaffrey’s harm limiting him to 5 (largely unproductive) video games to defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen being overmatched to all of the Deebo Samuel drama. The Rams and Seahawks completed 10-7, with Los Angeles successful the title through tiebreaker. Teaching mastermind Sean McVay and a younger protection led the cost. The Rams entered the postseason on a defensive roll, holding 4 of their final 5 opponents to below 10 factors. Seattle had loads of offensive explosiveness, but it surely was their improved protection that helped safe their third straight successful season.
AFC Championship
What we stated earlier than the season: We liked Kansas Metropolis, with one author selecting them over the Ravens and two others over the Texans. One in every of us flipped the script and picked Houston to high the Chiefs.
What truly occurred: Chiefs! Payments! The matchup all of us wished however nobody predicted. As Buffalo entered Arrowhead, this felt like Allen’s finest probability to lastly beat Mahomes within the playoffs. However, as was the trademark of the Chiefs’ season, they discovered a option to pull out a dramatic, slim win. Buffalo received the entire yards and turnover battle, however the Chiefs made key stops when it counted most. What number of extra occasions can Buffalo mentally deal with saying “there’s at all times subsequent yr”?
NFC Championship
What we stated earlier than the season: Two of us had Detroit successful, one over San Francisco, the opposite over Inexperienced Bay. We additionally picked Inexperienced Bay over Philadelphia, and San Francisco over Inexperienced Bay.
What truly occurred: Nobody noticed Washington making it this far, even because the playoffs started, and particularly once they headed to Detroit. Daniels and Co surprised the Lions 45-31, turning us all into believers. Had we given deeper thought to our claims about how full a group Philadelphia was, maybe we’d have supplied up extra respect. The Eagles’ 55-23 win over Washington was about as lopsided because it will get. Or so we thought.
Tremendous Bowl
What we stated earlier than the season: Two of us believed within the inevitability of the Chiefs’ three-peat. “Wager in opposition to Patrick Mahomes. I received’t.” One in every of us picked the Packers regardless of claiming of Kansas Metropolis, “this can be the perfect group the Mahomes-Reid-Spagnuolo trifecta have rolled out but.” Our different choose was the Texans on the power of their protection.
What truly occurred: Wanna discuss protection? Howdy Eagles. Fangio’s crew staged an absolute beatdown of the Chiefs in a 40-22 rout. Philly’s defensive position walloped the Chiefs, sacking Mahomes six occasions, probably the most of his profession. Much more spectacular is the truth that Fangio didn’t dial up a single blitz. This Tremendous Bowl was amongst Mahomes’s worst performances in an enormous sport. His passes had been off-target and he appeared off-balance from the beginning of the sport.
Congratulations to the Eagles – and to us for being not fairly as flawed as we might have been. However we nonetheless realized just a few issues. Inevitability is a delusion. Full groups are the perfect. Oh, and by no means ever choose the Jets.
