One yr faraway from an offseason that noticed the Padres radically alter the course of their franchise by paring down on payroll and buying and selling celebrity Juan Soto to the Yankees, San Diego as soon as once more finds itself in one thing of a monetary pickle. The membership is predicted to take care of its payroll stage from 2024 headed into 2025; in response to RosterResource, that’s a price range of $169M and a luxurious tax payroll that falls beneath the primary threshold (which sits at $241M in 2025). Attending to that stage of payroll could also be simpler mentioned than executed, nevertheless, because the Padres are at present projected for a payroll just below $210M in 2025 with a luxurious tax payroll of $244M, simply above the primary threshold.
That leaves the membership probably seeking to pare down payroll by round $40M this winter, and so they’ll certainly be hoping to make additions to the workforce regardless of these cuts. The Padres might want to add at the least one starter to pair with a trio of Dylan Stop, Michael King and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left area, to not point out the losses of function gamers David Peralta and Donovan Solano weakening the membership’s lineup at DH and on the bench. After all, any gamers the membership components methods with to cut back payroll will certainly create new holes that have to be stuffed, leaving A.J. Preller and the membership’s entrance workplace in a little bit of a pickle.
One avenue the Padres might use to cut back payroll this yr runs by Luis Arraez. The membership acquired the 27-year-old again in Might, and he typically performed pretty nicely throughout his time in San Diego this yr with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and earned him the third consecutive batting title of his profession. A contact savant who has managed to cut back his already spectacular 10% strikeout fee from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this previous yr, Arraez struck out an unbelievable 3.4% of the time throughout his time with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who’s extra dependable than anybody else within the recreation relating to placing the bat on the ball, it’s straightforward to see why Arraez has been enticing sufficient to golf equipment that each the Marlins and Padres have given up vital packages to land him lately.
That preternatural knack for contact is held again by Arraez’s lackluster plate self-discipline inflicting his stroll fee to say no steadily alongside his strikeout fee over time and an entire lack of energy, nevertheless. Each of these flaws have been on full show in 2024, as Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, which each ranked third from the underside amongst certified main league hitters. It’s potential that the thumb harm Arraez performed by this yr earlier than present process surgical procedure in October might have impacted him within the energy division, however even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins final yr landed simply outdoors the underside ten amongst certified hitters. Between these flaws in his hitting profile and his lackluster protection that largely restricted him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s additionally straightforward to see why each the Twins and Marlins have been prepared to half methods with him on the commerce market lately.
Might Arraez be dealt for the third yr in a row this winter? Doing so is maybe the best path to slashing a major chunk of payroll for the Padres. Stop and King are each projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for hefty arbitration salaries, however neither reaches the $14.6M determine Arraez is at present penciled in for. Clearing that cash off the books would drop the Padres’ payroll to round $195M. Whereas San Diego would then want to switch Arraez at first base headed into subsequent yr, numerous bats on the place together with former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France and Anthony Rizzo determine to be accessible for a relative discount this winter, which means it needs to be pretty straightforward for the membership to switch Arraez within the lineup and nonetheless come out $10M-12M forward, to not point out that the return for Arraez’s providers might assist to plug holes within the rotation or outfield. These motivations behind a possible deal have been sufficient to land Arraez the seventeenth spot on MLBTR’s Prime 35 offseason commerce candidates listing.
With that being mentioned, a commerce of Arraez isn’t the one choice on the Padres’ disposal as they search for methods to pare down payroll. He’s already indicated this winter that he could be open to an extension with the membership this winter as he stares down his ultimate yr below workforce management earlier than free company, and the Padres have commonly labored out contracts that supply the membership further monetary flexibility within the short-term and the participant further safety in the long run previously. That features offers that comes collectively simply earlier than a participant is because of attain free company, such because the extensions they’ve provided to Darvish and Manny Machado lately.
If Arraez have been amenable to it, it’s straightforward to think about the Padres back-loading the deal to cut back his 2025 wage considerably and/or providing a decrease AAV over a long term with the intention to duck below the posh tax threshold. As one instance, a six-year deal price $60M would include an AAV of simply $10M, permitting the membership to shave ~$4.6M of its anticipated luxurious tax invoice for 2025. In the meantime, if the deal was structured such that Arraez made simply $5M within the first yr of the deal adopted by $11M salaries over the remainder of the contract, that might supply the Padres almost $10M in financial savings on their 2025 payroll as in comparison with his arbitration wage — a determine not that completely different than what they’d save by buying and selling him and changing him with a low-cost veteran.
These numbers are purely hypothetical, after all, and it’s actually potential Arraez wouldn’t need to lock right into a cope with such a comparatively low annual wage with out first seeing what’s accessible to him on the open market. That’s not the one flaw within the plan of extending Arraez, both; whereas a cope with an identical construction to the one talked about above could be a significant assist in fixing San Diego’s speedy payroll issues for 2025, in a longer-term view it merely kicks the can down the highway to subsequent season when Arraez’s wage would shoot up by $6M and will depart the membership in the identical monetary jam it finds itself in now.
