Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship: 5 things to watch

The 2024 NFL season’s AFC Championship can be an epic, historic matchup between the convention’s prime two contenders of the final half-decade. The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (16-2) will host the Buffalo Payments (15-4) on Sunday night, kickoff set for five:30 PM on GEHA Subject at Arrowhead Stadium. The winner will head to New Orleans, Louisiana, for Tremendous Bowl LIX.

The Chiefs try to turn out to be the one workforce in NFL historical past to make a 3rd consecutive Tremendous Bowl after two earlier victories. The Payments want to win the AFC title for the primary time for the reason that 1993 season when a 30-13 dwelling win over the Chiefs despatched Buffalo to its fourth consecutive Tremendous Bowl.

The depth of this battle can be felt by the gamers and the followers: Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes needs Chiefs Kingdom to take it up a notch Sunday to “see how loud [Arrowhead] can actually get.”

The stage is ready for one of many largest video games in fashionable NFL historical past. Listed below are 5 issues to observe within the AFC Championship:

1. Patrick Mahomes taking what the protection offers

Mahomes can be scanning a well-known protection to him, however that doesn’t imply Buffalo can be predictable. In keeping with NFL NextGen Stats, the historically zone-heavy Payments attacked the Chiefs with extra man protection in Week 11, resulting in 18.2% of Mahomes’ targets qualifying as tight-window throws. That’s the second-highest mark in any sport of his this season.

On Sunday, large receivers Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown can be key. If Buffalo challenges the Chiefs’ passing sport in the same manner, the duo may have alternatives to make large performs down the sector. It will likely be a matter of the connection going by way of: final week, Mahomes focused Brown deep twice for game-breaking performs, however neither was accomplished.

If the Payments again off, Worthy and Brown will nonetheless be vital in stretching the protection horizontally and vertically. With Payments’ beginning free security Taylor Rapp unable to play, rookie Cole Bishop can be attacked with pace. Search for Worthy to get heavy doses of brief crossers and fast screens, taking the straightforward yards when Buffalo is comfortable in alignment.

2. Josh Allen vs. the blitz

This season, Payments’ quarterback Josh Allen completed with the third-best passer ranking versus the blitz, throwing just one interception and falling to sacks simply six instances.

Like several of the actually elite quarterbacks, it may be harmful to ship further rushers at Allen and expose your self to an enormous play. Nonetheless, the Payments’ offensive line is constructed to counter pocket crushers and permit Allen time regardless: when dealing with 4 or fewer cross rushers within the common season, Allen had the fifth-longest time to throw within the NFL.

For defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, it’s about executing the blitzes on the proper time with a containment mentality. Allen is disciplined and can eliminate the ball to beat the frenzy, and the Chiefs ought to belief the wholesome protection unit to make these throws tough.

It needs to be all about forcing a foul determination, which operating not often is for Allen. He completed with the best speeding success charge amongst beginning quarterbacks (66%) this season.

3. Trent McDuffie vs. Khalil Shakir

The first matchup to observe for the Chiefs’ protection includes cornerback Trent McDuffie persevering with to be a blanket in protection. Uncooked PFF knowledge for “separation prevented” from the common season confirmed McDuffie because the chief amongst cornerbacks with minimal 200 major protection snaps.

He needs to be the precedence in masking Payments’ large receiver Khalil Shakir, the workforce’s chief in targets (100) within the common season. Via two playoff video games, Shakir has 13 targets, 12 receptions, 128 yards and 5 first downs. No different Invoice has greater than 5 targets.

When the Chiefs blitz Allen, Shakir would be the go-to choice; he has caught 85% of Allen’s blitzed throws to him, with 255 of the 267 yards in these conditions coming after the catch.

This head-to-head would depart cornerbacks Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams to defend the perimeter towards large receivers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman. How profitable Allen is when focusing on the skin duo may make the distinction.

4. Jawaan Taylor versus Von Miller

The Chiefs’ offense received by way of an unsightly efficiency within the Divisional spherical, with credit score as a result of a ferocious Texans’ cross rush. Proper sort out Jawaan Taylor held up and solely allowed one hurry over 32 cross blocks.

The Payments don’t have the extent of expertise Houston threw on the Chiefs off the sting, however edge rusher Von Miller will look to offer Taylor related bother as Week 11: Miller earned a sack and an extra stress over 18 rushes completely aligned over Taylor. General, it was Taylor’s lowest pass-blocking effectivity charge in any sport this season (PFF).

If Miller may be quieted, the main focus will go to left guard Mike Caliendo. He can be challenged in holding the entrance of the pocket towards defensive tackles Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones.

5. Turnovers and the run sport

Within the Payments’ win over the Baltimore Ravens final week, turnovers helped the Payments get right into a optimistic sport script and dissuade the Ravens from counting on the run sport. Baltimore operating backs averaged 6.1 yards per carry.

The Chiefs fell into an early gap in their very own matchup with Buffalo this season, when Mahomes threw an interception after receiving the opening kickoff. It was the final sport the Chiefs dedicated a turnover, and that pattern persevering with can be important towards Buffalo, the NFL chief in turnover differential (+27).

An efficient run sport naturally helps in direction of a clear day on offense, and it’s clear operating again Kareem Hunt ought to lead that cost. Final week, Hunt earned 24 of his 44 speeding yards after contact, gaining 12 yards over anticipated all through the sport (NFL Subsequent Gen Stats). Working again Isiah Pacheco rushed for six yards lower than anticipated.