Oscar Piastri’s Components 1 world championship lead appears moderately much less unassailable after a borderline disastrous United States Grand Prix weekend. The McLaren driver no longer solely faces stern opposition from team-mate Lando Norris, however the unstoppable drive of Max Verstappen with momentum.
Mexico Metropolis
Bumps, skinny air, and one lengthy straight outline this circuit. Regardless of that straight, and the shorter one between Turns 3 and 4, groups wind on the downforce as a result of Turns 7 via 11 require some threading of the needle and it’s very simple to get a wobble on via right here and lose velocity. To a fantastic extent, the thinner air at altitude negates the impact of larger wings, which is among the causes Pink Bull has thrived right here over the previous few years.
The RB21 can also be one of many few automobiles to take pleasure in good, secure downforce on the larger trip heights required to guard the planks from this monitor’s bumps. There are additionally not one of the actually quick corners the place McLaren’s MCL39 shines.
Ferrari carried out properly right here final season, however the SF-25 hasn’t at all times loved bumpy tracks for the reason that Scuderia chased decrease trip heights throughout its conception. The drivers are additionally managing one other situation, one which they’ve been cagey about discussing, and that mainly manifests itself at sooner circuits.
That is one other monitor the place Pirelli is introducing a step in tyre compounds, so the C1 replaces the C2 because the onerous, whereas the C3 and C4 stay the medium and mushy. Whereas the intention is to nudge groups in direction of two-stop methods, the improved thermal degradation traits of this yr’s tyres militates towards the success of this tactic.
Max Verstappen, Pink Bull Racing RB20
Picture by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Photos
What occurred in Austin was that the onerous tyre was just too gradual, and groups defaulted – for probably the most half – to a one-stop medium-soft. Final season in Mexico, your entire high 10 did medium-hard and pitted inside six laps of one another. If the onerous is 1.5s a lap slower once more, because it was final weekend, anticipate this to be a medium-soft competition of tyre administration.
Races in Mexico Metropolis typically come down to not who’s quickest however who can maintain their head. Verstappen would have completed higher final yr had he not succumbed to a mood tantrum.
Brazil
Interlagos presents a tantalising mixture of challenges, with quick first and final sectors bookending a twistier center one. This have to arrange the automobiles with a compromise between the conflicting necessities is roughly analogous to Spa, although groups can get away with barely larger downforce settings provided that Interlagos is at altitude.
Final yr’s moist circumstances supplied Pirelli a get-out-of-jail-free card on race day as a result of F1’s tyre provider had introduced compounds a step softer, however the C5 was so mushy as to be unraceable. This yr, it will likely be C2-C3-C4 because it was two seasons in the past.
Lando Norris, McLaren MCL38, leads Charles Leclerc, Ferrari SF-24, and Max Verstappen, Pink Bull Racing RB20
Picture by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Photos
McLaren would usually anticipate to have the higher hand right here in a dry race, given the MCL39’s aero effectivity at higher-downforce tracks. The slowing downhill part from the exits of the Senna ‘S’ to the potential overtaking zone at Descida do Lago is nearly tailored for its automotive, as is the ultimate sector from Juncao onwards. However, once more, as McLaren staff principal Andrea Stella has acknowledged, Pink Bull’s weak point at higher-downforce tracks is not a given
Of the opposite front-midfielders, on paper Mercedes ought to have the higher hand on Ferrari given the SF-25’s allergic reactions to bumps.
Las Vegas
Whereas the desert-bound Disneyland for adults has little clearly in frequent with F1’s temple of velocity, the abundance of straights make Las Vegas a low-downforce monitor, although the necessities should not so low as Monza. Colder climes additionally play a task, although the race is 2 hours earlier this yr, so it won’t be fairly so chilly.
This monitor didn’t go well with McLaren final yr and there’s no motive to suppose there shall be a drastic enchancment this time round. The MCL39’s benefit has been at its most marginal at low-downforce tracks and its different sturdy go well with, thermal administration of the tyres is unlikely to come back into play, although the ambients shall be much less frigid.
Final yr’s race was extra of a contest between Mercedes – whose automobiles have been sooner in colder climes for the previous few years – and Ferrari, which was on an upward efficiency trajectory. It’s develop into tough to foretell the place Mercedes shall be – half the time that appears to be a thriller to the staff itself – however the easy monitor floor and proliferation of straights will play to Ferrari’s strengths.
George Russell, Mercedes F1 W15
Picture by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Photos
Verstappen was additionally a bit-part participant in final yr’s race, however the RB21 has been potent at lower-downforce tracks – extra so later within the season after aero improvement. Its new-found means to succeed in decrease trip heights make Verstappen a possible favorite right here.
Qatar
The Losail circuit was initially designed for motorbike racing so it’s a quick, flowing format with a reasonably excessive downforce requirement and only a few onerous stops. Warmth can also be an element at this location, regardless of it being an evening race. Theoretically, that makes it a McLaren circuit, however the papaya posse underperformed within the grand prix final yr after ending one-two within the dash.
A lot of that was brought on by Norris and Piastri underperforming in qualifying, and Norris receiving a considerably contentious penalty for not slowing for yellow flags.
That is additionally a monitor the place Ferrari can enter the combination. It’s not particularly bumpy, and though the SF-25 has been problematic in high-speed corners, this has mainly been ones that require quick modifications of route, the place the rear finish can come unstuck. Right here, other than a right-left-right between Turns 7 and 10, the corners have a linear radius.
Abu Dhabi
Other than a fiddly part across the lodge and marina, this monitor is mainly dominated by straights with a handful of quick corners, so aero effectivity with downforce wound on confers a powerful benefit. Up till just lately, that may have made it a nailed-on McLaren circuit however, given current developments, it’s possible Verstappen shall be nearer. Final yr, he was three-tenths off pole place within the automotive that had taken him to the drivers’ championship every week earlier.
Yas Marina is one other venue more likely to deliver Ferrari into the combination, maybe not for total victory however as a probably disruptive drive behind the battle for pole place. As we realized in Austin, monitor place is now tough to overturn even on circuits the place overtaking is feasible. Yas Marina, regardless of the very best efforts of the house owners, is as conducive to passing as Monaco.
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