With an off day on Monday and an enormous five-game dwelling sequence on the horizon in opposition to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Chicago Cubs’ potential for profitable the Nationwide League Central simply retains sliding downhill.
In accordance with FanGraphs, the Cubs entered Monday with simply an 18.8 % likelihood to win the division. Examine that to the 81.1 % likelihood the Brewers need to safe the NL Central’s high spot and it is easy to see simply how impactful the following few video games could possibly be on the North Facet.
After a three-game sequence in Toronto in opposition to the Blue Jays, Chicago returns to Wrigley Discipline for eight division video games, internet hosting the Pirates for 3 earlier than Milwaukee invades for 5 video games (together with the make-up sport from June 18 that was postponed by climate). These 5 video games may also be the final time the Cubs face Milwaukee this season, with the season sequence to date cut up 4-4.
For the Cubs, the urgency comes after current play has taken a success on their file. On June 17, the Cubs have been 45-28 and had a 6.5-game lead on the Brewers within the division. Additionally they had an 80.3 % likelihood (per FanGraphs) to win the NL Central. Milwaukee’s quantity on the time was simply 8.7 %.
Nevertheless, Chicago has gone simply 22-22 since that point. In the meantime, the Brewers have advanced into considered one of baseball’s greatest groups, going 17-4 for the reason that All-Star break and leapfrogging the Cubs within the division standings, holding a six-game lead over Chicago getting into their Monday dwelling sport in opposition to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
With that in thoughts, it is very potential the upcoming Cubs-Brewers sequence may decide if Milwaukee could have an unbreakable stranglehold on the division or if Chicago has an opportunity to be greater than only a wild-card crew in 2025.
Proper now, the numbers are saying that might properly be Chicago’s destiny, a stark turnaround from the projections in late June.
