The House Run Derby “curse” is a persistent fantasy in fantasy baseball circles, suggesting that winners of the annual slugfest see a dip in efficiency within the second half as a result of disrupted swings or plate self-discipline.
The speculation goes that the high-intensity, maximum-effort swings within the Derby throw off a participant’s mechanics, resulting in slumps. Nonetheless, a better take a look at the previous 4 Derby winners debunks this notion. Knowledge exhibits that the curse is essentially overstated, and Seattle’s Cal Raleigh stays a robust energy asset for fantasy managers within the second half of 2025.
Let’s start with final season’s winner, Teoscar Hernández, who stepped into the Derby after batting .261 with 19 dwelling runs and 62 RBIs within the first half of the season. He completed the primary spherical with 19 homers, received a swing-off in Spherical 2 to advance to the finals, then narrowly edged out Bobby Witt with one other 14 dwelling runs to earn the title.
Usually a mid-tier energy man whose career-best 32-homer mark in 2021, the yr MLB principally used a golf ball, Hernández went on to provide simply as effectively within the second half. His strikeout price remained effectively inside the vary of his profession norms, and his batting common truly jumped 20 factors.
In 2023, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. received the Derby and in addition confirmed no indicators of a curse. Within the first half, he posted a .274 common with 13 dwelling runs and a 15.6 % strikeout price.
Publish-Derby noticed a slight dip in common, however he additionally hit the identical variety of homers in fewer video games and dropped his strikeout price to simply 13.4 %. A high-quality hitter, Guerrero by no means modified.
Juan Soto’s 2022 Derby win is usually cited as proof of the curse, however context issues. Within the first half with Washington, Soto hit .250 with 20 dwelling runs, 43 RBIs, and a 13.7 % strikeout price. After successful the Derby, he was traded to San Diego, and his second-half stats dipped to a .231 common with simply seven dwelling runs and a 15.5 % strikeout price. Not a steep decline in plate self-discipline, however the energy was sapped by the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park. However was it the Derby that led to the decreased numbers, or was this decline extra about adjusting to a brand new crew and atmosphere?
Pete Alonso, the 2021 Derby winner, additional debunks the parable as he carried his momentum into the second half with extra homers in fewer video games, higher plate self-discipline numbers total and a batting common improve by virtually 30 factors. Fantasy managers who wager on Alonso’s energy have been rewarded.
The info is obvious. Three of the previous 4 Derby winners both maintained or improved their efficiency post-Derby, with Soto’s dip defined by exterior components. For Raleigh, his energy profile, plate self-discipline and switch-hitting means make him a protected wager to keep away from any legendary curse. Fantasy managers ought to confidently roster him, anticipating strong dwelling run and RBI contributions within the second half of 2025. The House Run Derby is a showcase of energy, not a swing wrecker.
Howard Bender is the top of content material at FantasyAlarm.com. Observe him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Present” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports activities channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all of your fantasy baseball information and recommendation.
