This week’s mailbag is a little bit of a hybrid. MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes handles the primary handful of questions, whereas Anthony Franco takes the ultimate few to spherical it out. We’ll get into the Braves’ frequently sinking playoff probabilities, commerce prospects for the Cubs, Roki Sasaki’s disappointing debut season, deadline outlooks for a handful of bubble groups, and rather more!
Kevin asks:
Ought to the Braves try a rebuild, transfer on from a number of the core that’s underperforming once more and develop a brand new draft philosophy? Possibly draft some hitters?
Phillip asks:
I’m a Braves Fan, win or lose and I watch them each evening. This season and the season they gained the World Collection are 2 completely different entities. Why would the Braves not commerce Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna? I imply we’ve so many weaknesses, we’ve 3 beginning pitchers, backside of our lineup is worst in baseball and our relievers are among the many worst in baseball. What might we get for Ozuna and Iglesias?
It is value contemplating that the 2021 Braves have been 30-35 with 12% playoff odds on 6-16-21. On 7-2-21, that had risen to 40-41 with a 20.6% likelihood on the playoffs. The present workforce is worse at 38-46, however nonetheless holds a 17.2% likelihood on the playoffs. It is not that completely different from the place the World Collection-winning workforce as soon as was.
Nonetheless, the Braves are 7.5 video games out within the Wild Card. They’ve performed like a 73-win workforce. To have a shot on the playoffs they’d must play extra like a 100-win workforce. I am extra on the facet of Braves followers right here than I’m on the facet of FanGraphs Playoff Odds. And these guys wrote in earlier than information of Spencer Schwellenbach’s damage.
Ozuna, 34, has skilled an influence outage this yr. Nevertheless, his anticipated slugging share is .487 versus his precise .392 mark, and I assume he’ll be wonderful. He is a DH-only rental making $16MM, so my guess is that he’d herald 40-grade kind prospects. Iglesias is 35 and making the identical cash. His velocity and strikeout price are slipping, and someway 18.4% of his flyballs have left the yard. I feel he’d be a pure wage dump.
So whereas I do not suppose the Braves will make the playoffs, I additionally do not suppose they’re re-stocking the farm system by buying and selling Ozuna and Iglesias.
As for Kevin’s query, let’s do a mini-assessment of the Braves’ core, with the participant’s 2026 age in parentheses. Cash owed in 2025 just isn’t included.
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