UFC Atlanta best betting props, parlays and picks | Usman vs. Buckley

UFC Atlanta goes down this weekend (Sat., June 14, 2025) inside State Farm Area in Atlanta, Georgia. And it’s a reasonably good card, too! The primary occasion is Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley, a battle that might launch Buckley proper into the title combine at Welterweight. The previous 170-pound champ, although, is already speaking a few potential battle with Islam Makhachev (and Dricus du Plessis!).

UFC Atlanta’s co-main occasion is Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick. It is a potential altering of the guard second within the Flyweight division. The previous champ Namajunas shall be seeking to cease Maverick leapfrogging her within the rankings.

Rounding out UFC Atlanta’s predominant card is Edmen Shabazyan vs. Andre Petroski, Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos, Cody Brundage vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik and Alonzo Menifield vs. Oumar Sy.

UFC Atlanta’s “Prelims” are headlined by Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato (we hope). Additionally on the undercard is Michael Chiesa vs. Courtroom McGee and Ricky Sumon vs. Cameron Smotherman. Not dangerous, in any respect.

As all the time, there’s tons to guess on this card and we’ve bought odds for all of the fights beneath:

UFC Atlanta Important Card Cash Line Odds

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Kamaru Usman (+230) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-280)

The 38 year-old Usman has seemed fairly human in the previous couple of yeas. Previous to that he was being talked up as a Welterweight GOAT (not by me, although, I’m on GSP wind up right here). Usman’s legacy was tarnished in 2022 because of that headkick from Leon Edwards (see it once more right here). Usman then dropped a majority determination to Edwards six months later. Usman’s final battle was additionally a majority determination loss. That was a spirited shedding effort reverse Khamzat Chimaev. That Chimaev battle was all the way in which again in October 2023.

The 31 year-old Buckley has hit his stride as a Welterweight. He’s undefeated since making that transfer, off the again of a Chris Curtis technical knockout loss in 2022 (see that right here). He’s gained six fights since then. Amongst these wins are his knockout over Stephen Thompson (see that right here), his floor and pound technical knockout on Vicente Luque (see that right here) and his dominating efficiency over Colby Covington (see it right here).

In opposition to Usman he’ll get one other probability to type on a Welterweight of Christmas previous. If he will get by “The Nigerian Nightmare,” which Vegas (and I) assume he’ll, then hopefully fights with the likes of Carlos Prates and/or Michael Morales will come calling.

Buckley is a good favourite on this battle. It’s straightforward to see why. Usman is nearer to 40 than 35 and he hasn’t competed in nearly two years. That places everybody — aside from probably the most particular of fighters — at a direct drawback. Usman was a kind of particular fighters. However right this moment, I don’t assume he’ll be capable to match Buckley’s pace, power or energy.

At his greatest, Usman was a smothering wrestler who may knock you out between makes an attempt to take you down. I feel prime Usman walks by Buckley. However, that’s not sufficient to tip the scales for me on this battle.

Buckley has devastating energy for this division. However he’s not only a flamethrower. He’s good technically, too, and he has above common placing protection. He’s listed fourth within the division for his 64.1 p.c vital placing protection. Nevertheless, Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum are listed one and two, regardless of not being in that division anymore. Buckley can also be Prime 10 in vital strikes absorbed per minute and vital strike differential. It’s uncommon to see somebody who’s as highly effective and aggressive as he be additionally so defensively sound. On this match-up with Usman, I feel meaning, even when Usman nonetheless has knockout energy in his palms, he would possibly battle to land his greatest shot on Buckley.

Buckley is ready to forestall numerous photographs coming his approach on account of how lively he’s along with his kicks. A first-rate Usman would feast on these kicks and use them for takedowns. Can this Usman do the identical? I’m unsure. Buckley additionally has a really excessive takedown protection of 73 p.c.

The Buckley moneyline isn’t too brief to be thought of a superb guess. Buckley -5.5 factors is -140. I’m not on this level unfold as a result of I feel there’s a superb probability this goes the gap. Buckley has by no means fought for 5 rounds. He’s been scheduled for 5, however by no means wanted the ‘championship rounds’. If he and Usman go all 5, I feel it’s doable Usman takes a spherical or two from him.

Usman +5.5 is +100, however I actually don’t like taking level spreads on guys I wouldn’t decide to win straight up.

Buckley to win by KO/TKO/DQ is simply +140. I’d like that to be a bit increased towards somebody as sturdy as Usman. Buckley by determination is +180. That’s extra tempting for me.

The spherical whole has been set at 4.5 rounds. I used to be actually hoping to see Vegas have a decrease spherical whole right here, anticipating Buckley to do to Usman what he’s achieved to the opposite former high Welterweights he’s confronted. If this line had been 3.5 I might have hammered the over. As issues stand, although, over 4.5 is -105 and underneath is -125. I’m favoring this battle going the gap, however that’s nonetheless a really robust name to make.

For my greatest guess, I’m going to make use of DraftKings identical sport parlay to present myself that over 3.5 guess, parlayed with a Buckley win. That is me respecting each Usman’s toughness and Buckley’s energy.

Greatest guess: Joaquin Buckley and Over 3.5 rounds (+135)

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Rose Namajunas (-255) vs. Miranda Maverick (+205)

Namajunas final competed in Nov. 2024, dropping a choice to Erin Blanchfield. Earlier than that, she dominated Tracy Cortez. Cortez was coming in on brief discover in that battle for Maycee Barber. And this was at UFC Denver, which means Cortez needed to battle at altitude on simply two weeks’ discover. Namajunas, who lives in Colorado, was capable of cruise in that battle. In 2024, Namajunas additionally scored a choice win over Amanda Ribas.

Actually, 2024 was the primary time in her 13-year UFC profession the place Namajunas competed 3 times in a yr (not together with her TUF stint).

Maverick, in the meantime, additionally noticed motion 3 times final yr. These three fights had been all determination wins, over Jamey-Lyn Horth, Dione Barbosa and Andrea Lee. Namajunas is a large step up from these opponents.

Regardless of how for much longer Namajunas’ UFC profession has been, she’s nonetheless solely 32 years-old (5 years older than Maverick).

I don’t assume Maverick presents something that Namajunas hasn’t seen, or overwhelmed, earlier than. Maverick has met fighters on Namajunas’ stage up to now, however he’s been second greatest to them. In 2023, she misplaced to Jasmine Jasudavicius and in 2021 she misplaced to each Blanchfield and Barber.

I don’t assume Maverick has improved a lot since being discovered by these well-rounded fighters with good grappling. And I feel she’ll battle towards Namajunas, who can also be well-rounded fighter with good grappling.

Once more, the moneyline on Namajunas isn’t horrible. The over/underneath is, although. Over 2.5 rounds is predictably brief at -520. I wouldn’t contact the underneath, at +350, given how usually these two go to a choice.

The very best guess I can discover on this battle goes with Namajunas by unanimous determination. That’s a little bit of a threat given how usually ladies’s fights finish in cut up/majority choices. However, I place confidence in the younger veteran right here. And I feel she’s going to point out Maverick’s ceiling is Prime 15 (not Prime 10).

Greatest guess: Rose Namajunas by unanimous determination (-125)

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Edmen Shahbazyan (-185) vs. Andre Petroski (+155)

I’m excited for this battle and I feel it’s good match-making.

Shahbazyan helped reset his vibe by destroying Dylan Budka with a primary spherical knockout. That got here after he gassed out and was submitted by Gerald Meerschaert, in a battle the place he had knocked down Meerschaert within the first.

Petroski, then again, is coming off the very best win in his profession, a dominant wrestling efficiency (which was truly enjoyable to look at) over Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist Rodolfo Vieira. That’s Petroski’s third win in a row following choices over Budka and Josh Fremd.

Petroski’s gameplan shall be to get Shahbazyan into the proverbial deep waters. Nevertheless, as soon as he has him there, he’s not a large menace to attain a end. He has three finishes in UFC, however none since 2021. Due to that, Shahbazyan might need a protracted window to attain the end of his personal.

I feel Petroski is being slept on a bit as an element at Middleweight. His wrestling and grappling are very onerous to deal with. He’s second within the division for takedown accuracy (behind Abus Magomedov) and likewise second for takdown protection (behind Roman Kopylov). He’s third in submission common per quarter-hour (behind Anthony Hernandez and Bo Nickal) and likewise fifth in submission makes an attempt. He’s additionally first in high place time, fourth in whole management time and third in management time proportion. He’s additionally high ten in lowest backside place time and backside place proportion. Man’s a nightmare on the bottom!

Shahbazyan’s takedown protection is respectable, at 65 p.c, however I feel Petroski is nice sufficient to get him down.

The largest threat for Petroski on this battle is Shahbazyan scoring a fast (technical) knockout. I feel Petroski has proven numerous enchancment in avoiding these sorts of photographs, although. And he’s not a wrestler who’s going to idiot himself into considering he has “Canelo Palms.” He’s not going to attempt to field with Shahbazyan. He’s going to shoot throughout the first ten seconds of the battle.

I feel he’s an awesome stay canine on this battle, as he was when he beat Vieira.

Petroski +3.5 is +110. I can’t flip that down, particularly after I assume he’s going to get a unanimous determination on the night time.

Greatest guess: Andre Petroski +3.5 (+110)

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Cody Garbrandt (+165) vs. Raoni Barcelos (-195)

Garbrandt’s final battle was his submission loss to Deiveson Figueiredo in 2024 (see it right here). Figueiredo has since hit his ceiling at Bantamweight, which tells you the place the ceiling for Garbrandt could be (a great distance from title rivalry).

Garbrandt was presupposed to battle Miles Johns in Oct. and Nov. 2024, however that fell by each occasions. Most just lately it was on account of an harm to Garbrandt. Garbrandt’s final win was a knockout over Brian Kelleher in 2023 (see it right here).

On the flip facet, Barcelos performed the final word spoiler final day out, upsetting Payton Talbott as a +700 underdog. And he didn’t beat the a lot hyped tremendous prospect with a fortunate punch, he dominated Talbott from bell-to-bell. That simply goes to point out you could’t all the time imagine the bookies in these fights (extra on that in a while this card).

That win over Talbott adopted up a submission win over Cristian Quinonez (see it right here).

Garbrandt’s Renan Barao-esque fall from supremacy to mediocrity is puzzling. Regardless of being overwhelmed in his current fights with elites at both 135 or 125 kilos, Garbrandt has nonetheless proven some flashes of his beforehand a lot beloved boxing.

I simply assume, given what we’ve seen these days, Barcelos is a step above the fellows who Garbrandt can beat proper now. Garbrandt remains to be younger at 33, however at occasions he fights like a a lot older man (perhaps as a result of injury he’s taken). That’s why Barcelos being 38 isn’t that a lot of a priority to me, particularly when Barcelos seemed much more spry than the 25-year-old Talbott final day out.

Barcelos is nice at mixing up his placing and wrestling. Garbrandt is understood for stellar takedown protection (80 p.c). Nevertheless, I feel Barcelos will discover success along with his wrestling, because of his placing. I can see Barcelos utilizing his attain benefit to win exchanges with Garbrandt and get the form of reactive takedowns we noticed him land on Talbott to piece collectively a considerably snug determination.

Greatest guess: Raoni Barcelos moneyline (-195)

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Mansur Abdul-Malik (-800) vs. Cody Brundage (+500)

Abdul-Malik is an issue.

It gained’t be lengthy earlier than he’s headlining an APEX card reverse a ranked opponent. Abdul-Malik remains to be undefeated (8-0) with all stoppages after placing away Nick Klein within the second spherical in February. Beforehand, he destroyed Dusko Todorovic (see it right here). Klein, a brief discover opponent, did shock Abdul-Malik a bit, rocking him within the first spherical. Nevertheless, I can excuse that given how nice Abdul-Malik taken care of he recovered.

Abdul-Malik has an uncanny skill to land extraordinarily highly effective photographs when in shut. There’s not many people within the sport who can land punches on the bottom and contained in the clinch with as a lot snap and ferocity as they do when they’re at vary.

Brundage, in the meantime, completed Julian Marquez in a co-main occasion final day out. That battle was wild with Brundage taking massive photographs to land larger ones on Marquez.

If he desires to play rock ‘em sock ‘em with Abdul-Malik, I feel he’s going to get harm, dangerous.

Abdul-Malik is one in every of a pair large favorites on the cardboard. I can completely assist these odds, although, given how scary Abdul-Malik has seemed and the way reckless Brundage has been as of late.

Clearly, there’s no worth on the moneyline right here. The spherical whole is 1.5 and I’m advantageous with taking the underneath. Each these guys battle like their parking meter is about to run out. And, whereas I’m excessive on Abdul-Malik, I don’t assume it’s out the query that he will get his bubble burst by Brundage. If that occurs, it’s most likely going to occur early, too.

Greatest guess: Beneath 1.5 rounds (-188)

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Alonzo Menifield (+550) vs. Oumar Sy (-900)

That is the road I discover so curious.

Sy is likely one of the largest favourite on our card. That’s regardless of him coming off a really ho-hum determination over Da Woon Jung at UFC Paris final yr. That was simply his second UFC battle. His first was a simple win over Tuco Tokkos (one of many worst fighters on the roster for the previous two years operating).

Sy is undefeated (11-0) and he possesses an infinite Jon Jones-like body (6’4”, 83-inch attain). I simply don’t assume he’s a -900 favourite, particularly towards his first opponent who has an precise UFC resume to his title,

Menifield, in the meantime, gained a grueling determination over the 6’4” Julius Walker in his final battle, incomes a “Struggle of the Evening” bonus. He misplaced his earlier two fights. Nevertheless, I feel we will forgive him being stopped by Azamat Murzakanov (see it right here) and Carlos Ulberg (see it right here).

Sy’s placing hasn’t seemed that nice in UFC to this point, definitely not on a stage of Murzakanov and Ulberg. He is probably not utilizing his ungodly attain a lot offensively, however it’s serving to him keep out of hassle. He’s solely absorbed 33 vital strikes in his first two fights.

Sy’s wrestling may trigger Menifield numerous issues. Sy’s enormous body has helped him rating 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes so far within the Octagon. Although, his accuracy could possibly be a lot better (simply 40 p.c).

Menifield has good protection at 78 p.c. Nevertheless, Sy’s dimension would possibly make that moot.

I feel Sy’s path to profitable is thru smothering Menifield for 3 rounds and he could very properly try this. However, if this battle is left standing for some time, I feel there’s an opportunity Menifield touches Sy up and hurts him. If that occurs we do not know how Sy will react or what his wrestling will seem like as soon as his nostril is busted and his eyes are blurry.

Taking the Menifield moneyline could be a daring transfer at +500. You can too get him at +3.5 for +225. Fortune favors the daring, although.

Greatest guess: Alonzo Menifield moneyline (+500)

UFC Atlanta ‘Prelims’ Beneath Card Odds

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Paul Craig (+310) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-425)

This was presupposed to occur a number of weeks in the past. Right here’s what I wrote about it then (with snark about UFC Vegas 106’s card included):

Simply in case you forgot we had been within the UFC APEX we have now this because the co-main occasion.

Bellato fought to a draw with Jimmy Crute at UFC 312 in February. The draw got here after Bellato was nearly completed within the first spherical, giving Crute the 10-8 spherical earlier than Bellato regrouped and gained the second and third rounds (largely on account of his leg kicks).

Previous to that battle, Bellato gained his UFC debut with a ground-and-pound win over Ihor Potieria (see it right here).

Craig will make his twentieth stroll to the Octagon this weekend. He heads into Saturday with a 9-9-1 UFC document. He’s coming off a really boring determination loss to Bo Nickal. Earlier than that, he was battered by Caio Borralho and submitted by Brendan Allen (see it right here).

Initially, it felt like Craig was right here for a enjoyable time, not a very long time. However, time has now dragged on and the 37-year-old’s lack of placing stays a critical legal responsibility in any battle he may take within the division.

Craig is a large underdog towards Bellato. That’s due to Bellato’s punching energy and the long-standing perception that Craig will go down if somebody can catch him on the chin.

The spherical whole of 1.5 additionally displays that with the underneath presently obtainable at -135.

Bellato by way of (technical) knockout additionally has very brief odds at -185.

I don’t see a motive to disagree with Vegas on all this. To attempt to get a bit worth, although, I’ll take Bellato to get that end within the first spherical. He began sluggish towards Crute and was practically completed, so he must be motivated to come back out fast for this one. I’ll take Bellato to win within the first, no matter technique, since I feel a club-and-sub could be on the cardboard.

I don’t have these prop traces presently of writing. I nonetheless imagine Bellato goes to win this one, although, and sure cease Craig early.

Greatest guess: Beneath 1.5 rounds (-105)

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Michael Chiesa (-380) vs. Courtroom McGee (+290)

What yr is that this?

Hey, higher late than by no means, proper? It is a enjoyable match-up of former TUF winners, each of whom competed on that present when it was nonetheless considerably related and value tuning in for. Chiesa’s TUF Dwell season could have been the start of the top, although.

I feel UFC sees worth in having one in every of their desk guys getting out and in the cage with out getting mauled (too dangerous they didn’t need to try this with Anthony Smith).

Chiesa is presently splitting time between working the evaluation desk and being given very winnable fights from UFC. Final yr he scored submissions over Tony Ferguson and Max Griffin. Previous to that he was on a 3 battle shedding streak with defeats Kevin Holland, Sean Brady and Vicente Luque.

At 40, McGee simply retains trucking alongside. He beat Tim Means with a neck crank final day out (see it right here). Earlier than that he misplaced a choice to Alex Morono and was KO’d by a retiring Matt Brown (see it right here).

The sell-by date on McGee’s excessive strain sport expired some time in the past. He doesn’t have the power or motor left to grind out the form of wins that outlined his profession. Chiesa’s sport has matured with age, although. He’s nonetheless very succesful at avoiding the placing sport of a McGee and discovering his technique to the bottom. When there, I feel his Brazilian jiu-jitsu will give him one other cold victory.

Greatest guess: Michael Chiesa moneyline (-380)

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Malcolm Wellmaker (-1800) vs. Kris Moutinho (+900)

Holy moly, ESPN have Wellmaker as -2500 favourite. If he closed at thoseodds he could be the largest betting favourite in UFC historical past, beating Isaac Dulgarian’s 2024 line of -2400 towards Brendon Marotte (a battle Dulgarian gained with ease).

Clearly, the 31-year-old Wellmaker seems to be the a lot better fighter on this match-up. He’s good (9-0) as knowledgeable and put Cameron Saaiman to sleep with a gorgeous proper hook in April (see it right here).

Moutinho, then again, is greatest recognized for coming in on brief discover and giving Sean O’Malley a hell of a battle in 2021. He misplaced, by standing technical knockout (see it right here), however he had his moments and was properly deserving of a “Struggle of the Evening” bonus.

After that, he was put away by Guido Cannetti (see it right here) after which lower by the promotion. He’s undefeated (5-0) in in combined martial arts (MMA) since then.

Wellmaker is a blue chip prospect (regardless of his age) and he’s most likely going to seek out Moutinho’s chin. These odds are simply too absurd to even hassle desirous about this battle as one thing to doubtlessly guess on.

I can’t contact that moneyline and, not like Alonzo Menifield, I don’t assume Moutinho has it in him for an enormous upset. I’ll play the underneath, as a substitute, assuming Wellmaker will get one other fast knockout.

Greatest guess: Beneath 1.5 rounds (-175)

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Cody Durden (+160) vs. Jose Ochoa (-190)

Georgia-native Durden couldn’t get close to Joshua Van in his final battle. Given what we’ve seen from Van, although, Durden deserves some credit score for lasting the complete three rounds. Earlier than that Durden choked out Matt Schnell (see it right here). And earlier than that, Durden was dropped by a Bruno Silva uppercut (see it right here).

Ochoa misplaced a choice to Lone’er Cavanagh in his promotional debut out in Macau final yr.

He was “enhancement expertise” for the promising Cavanagh there. Now he’s a favourite to beat a superb ol’ boy in his personal yard.

Durden may be very restricted as a striker, however he’s bought respectable wrestling. We’ve not seen a lot of Ochoa at this stage. He’s a strike-first fighter, although.

If Durden decides to face and commerce, he’s most likely going to get overwhelmed up. If he depends on his wrestling, he’s bought a superb probability at incomes a choice. I don’t assume Durden’s battle IQ is excessive sufficient to financial institution on, so I’m abstaining from selecting a winner. I’ll go for the battle to go to a choice as a substitute.

Greatest guess: Over 2.5 rounds (-130)

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Ricky Simon vs. Cameron Smotherman

Simon seemed incredible in his final battle, hurting after which ending Javid Basharat (see it right here) to point out he’s nonetheless a related issue at Bantamweight. That win snapped a three-fight shedding streak. Nevertheless, these losses had been towards Vinicius Oliveira, Mario Bautista and Track Yadong.

Smotherman fought in Might, shedding a choice to Serhiy Sidey. He didn’t look nice in that battle, failing to maintain up with Sidey on the ft. Earlier than that he got here in on brief discover to beat Jake Hadley and bounce the Englishman over to PFL.

There’s no odds for this battle presently of writing as a result of Smotherman is a late alternative for Charles Jourdain.

I anticipate Simon to be too robust on the ft, and along with his wrestling, for Smotherman to deal with, although.

Greatest guess: Ricky Simon moneyline

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Phil Rowe (+110) vs. Ange Loosa (-130)

Rowe has gone from being an fascinating prospect at Welterweight to only a man after losses to gatekeepers Neil Magny and Jake Matthews. In between these losses he additionally managed to get subbed by a Craig Jones flying triangle at Karate Fight (see it right here).

Loosa’s profession has but to take off in UFC. He’s 2-2 and coming off a unanimous determination loss to Gabriel Bonfim.

Rowe has numerous dimension over Loosa. He’s 5 inches taller and has a six-inch attain benefit. He ought to be capable to make that depend towards a man who absorbs extra vital strikes than he lands (6.68 vs. 5.6).

Greatest guess: Phil Rowe moneyline (+110)

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Jamey-Lyn Horth (-575) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+390)

Horth misplaced to this weekend’s co-main occasion fighter Miranda Maverick in her final battle. Horth took that battle a number of weeks after profitable a cut up determination over Ivana Petrovic. She’s 2-2 in UFC (all choices).

Demopoulos, in the meantime, was dominated by Talita Alencar in her final battle. Earlier than that, she was submitted by Jaqueline Amorim. She’ll be releived to not see an elite grappler on Saturday. She’s 5-4 in UFC with one stoppage.

Demopoulos is arising from Strawweight for this battle.

Horth is an enormous Flyweight anyhow, however on this bout she’ll have a five-inch peak and seven-inch attain benefits. Demopoulos doesn’t do something properly sufficient to even the chances towards that.

Greatest guess: Jamey-Lyn Horth moneyline (-575)

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UFC Atlanta Lengthy Pictures!

Right here’s a few lengthy photographs for Saturday night time’s motion.

Usman vs. Buckley: Struggle to Finish within the Final 10 Seconds of Any Spherical (+4500)

Buckley is a showman and he’s been given his largest highlight so far. I feel he’s actually going to point out up and announce himself as a participant within the Welterweight division. He’s a very inventive striker and I can see him going for some homerun swings when he hears the ten second clacker, particularly if he’s been combating conservatively for 4:50 out of concern for the takedown.

Alonzo Menifield to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+1100)

If Menifield goes to beat the -900 Sy, then it might need to be by knockout. Sy will dwarf Menifield within the cage, however that’s not new. In his final battle, Menifield beat Julius Walker (who’s as massive as Sy) by determination. Perhaps that battle calibrated Menifield for placing up at an even bigger man and we’ll see that repay towards Sy.

Two-bet parlay: Phil Rowe and Andre Petroski (+433)

There’s numerous squash matches on this card, so there’s not many alternatives to guess on canines (until you’re nuts like me and like Menifield). Rowe and Petroski are two reasonable underdogs who, I feel, are in actually favorable match-ups. I feel Petroski can grind down Shahbazyan and I feel Rowe can out-box Loosa.

MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the whole UFC Atlanta battle card RIGHT HERE, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 7 p.m. ET, adopted by the remaining predominant card steadiness on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

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