The Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to win Tremendous Bowl LX — however simply barely, with a cluster of groups near the reigning champs when it comes to capacity and likelihood to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That is based on ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI) — our soccer scores and projection mannequin — which launched Wednesday for the 2025 season.
The Eagles have a 12% likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl based on the mannequin, the bottom likelihood the preseason favourite has needed to win all of it for the reason that mannequin started outputting preseason projections in 2015.
Within the preseason, FPI’s total predictive scores are based totally on win totals from the betting market along with every crew’s schedule — together with components such because the distinction between a crew’s beginning and backup quarterback and a particular groups score that includes particular kickers. We use these scores to simulate the season 1000’s of occasions, with the outcomes forming our projections.
Rankings evolve as we be taught extra about every crew primarily based on its efficiency on offense, protection and particular groups — accounting for opponent — together with quarterback efficiency and modifications. Recreation predictions are additionally affected by home-field benefit and relaxation differentials. Let’s dive into our 2025 forecast and our greatest takeaways.
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Eagles prime the NFL’s elite group
The NFL’s 2025 oligarchy consists of a transparent prime tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Payments. These groups are separated by at most a single level in FPI score, that means none of them could be favored by greater than a single level over one other on a impartial discipline. However there is a drastic, 1.8-point drop-off between the No. 5-ranked Payments and the No. 6-ranked Commanders.
First have a look at NFL FPI scores for the 2025 season! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40X7
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) Might 27, 2025
The widespread theme between the highest 5 groups? Offensive power. That is proper, the “protection wins championships” cliché is not mirrored right here. Offense is extra secure from sport to sport and season to season, so groups with one of the best previous quarterback and offensive manufacturing usually tend to repeat that success. That is crucial as a result of the purpose of the FPI is to look forward, not again. It is no coincidence that the highest 5 groups even have the 5 greatest offenses based on the FPI, albeit in a distinct order.
However it’s not all offense — the defending champion Eagles are oh-so-slightly within the total lead as a result of additionally they have one of the best protection. With linebacker Zack Baun again to anchor the center and ascending younger expertise resembling defensive sort out Jalen Carter and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Philly’s protection units it aside.
All 5 groups within the prime tier have at the very least an 8% likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl, and there’s a 50% likelihood that the Tremendous Bowl winner might be a type of 5 groups. No different crew has better than a 5% likelihood to win all of it.
Greatest likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl
RankTeamChanceRankTeamChance1Eagles12percent8Chargers4percent2Chiefs11percent9Bengals4percent3Bills10percent1049ers4percent4Ravens9percent11Packers4percent5Lions8percent12Buccaneers3percent6Commanders5percent13Broncos3percent7Rams5percent14Vikings3percentSee the complete 32-team listing right here.
Might we see an Eagles-Chiefs repeat within the Tremendous Bowl?
Two of the previous three Tremendous Bowls have been between Kansas Metropolis and Philadelphia. Will or not it’s three of 4? The 4.2% likelihood of a Tremendous Bowl LIX repeat is the best of any mixture of groups in our Tremendous Bowl matchup projections, barely besting the three.6% possibilities of Ravens-Eagles and Payments-Eagles matchups. Prime mixtures are listed under and rounded to the closest entire quantity.
Most probably Tremendous Bowl LX matchups
MatchupLikelihood1Eagles vs. Chiefs4percent2Eagles vs. Ravens4percent3Eagles vs. Bills4percent4Lions vs. Bills3percent5Lions vs. Ravens3percent6Lions vs. Chiefs3percent7Rams vs. Chiefs2percent8Commanders vs. Chiefs2percent9Rams vs. Bills2percent1049ers vs. Chiefs2%
When trying on the prime 10 most certainly Tremendous Bowl mixtures, a number of completely different NFC groups seem on the listing. The Eagles and Lions present up probably the most, however the Commanders, Rams and 49ers every appeared in probably the most doubtless mixtures. The AFC aspect of the matchups was dominated by three groups — the Chiefs, Payments and Ravens.
Who’s the favourite within the loaded NFC North?
It isn’t an enormous shock, however each crew within the NFC North ranks within the prime half of the FPI scores. Detroit leads the way in which at No. 4, adopted by the Packers (No. 8), Vikings (No. 15) and Bears (No. 16).
If there’s a curveball, it is that Minnesota ranks solely fifteenth after going 14-3 in 2024. However the Vikings relied on their protection — which ranked third in EPA per play — final season whereas rating a mediocre fifteenth on offense. And although Brian Flores stays as defensive coordinator, defensive success is difficult to copy.
Plus, second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy is an unknown after lacking his rookie season with a torn meniscus in his proper knee. Whereas he may possess extra upside than final 12 months’s starter, Sam Darnold, McCarthy’s draw back is nearly definitely decrease. Subsequently, the FPI offers Minnesota solely a 19% likelihood to win the division and a 43% likelihood to achieve the playoffs.
In the meantime, the Bears moved in the other way. After Chicago completed twenty fourth in complete effectivity (EPA per play adjusted for rubbish time) final season, the FPI sees it as a minimally above-average crew coming into 2025. The explanations for optimism are apparent. The Bears introduced in new coach Ben Johnson and added vital expertise to their offensive line, and quarterback Caleb Williams now has a season of NFL expertise — even when that have was shaky.
So, who comes out forward? The Lions prepared the ground with a 41% shot to win the division, with the Packers clocking in at 25%. However all of them have an opportunity, as even the Bears are at 15%.
Can the 49ers bounce again and win the NFC West?
FPI narrowly has the Rams as one of the best crew within the NFC West. However the favourite to win the division? That might (very narrowly) be the 49ers, with a 36% shot over the Rams’ 34%.
Why the discrepancy? Energy of schedule. No crew enters 2025 with a better slate than the 49ers, who not solely get to face the NFC South and AFC South like the remainder of their division, but in addition the Giants, Browns and Bears resulting from ending final within the division in 2024. As compared, the Rams should face the Eagles, Ravens and Lions as a part of their first-place schedule.
That is sufficient to give San Francisco the sting over Los Angeles within the projections. It additionally signifies the FPI’s perception within the 49ers bouncing again after a brutally disappointing 6-11 marketing campaign. A giant a part of that religion is the betting market believing that the 49ers have been hampered by accidents to key gamers final season — together with extensive receiver Brandon Aiyuk, working again Christian McCaffrey and offensive lineman Trent Williams — and that they need to be harmful if wholesome.
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Can any of the opposite AFC East groups problem the Payments?
They may, however no particular person crew is especially doubtless to take action. Buffalo is the one AFC East crew with a constructive FPI score and could be thought of greater than a four-point favourite over every of the opposite three on a impartial discipline. And the Payments have a 65% likelihood to win their division — the very best of any crew within the NFL by a hefty margin.
After all, that leaves greater than a 1-in-3 likelihood that another person will win the AFC East. That is primarily as a result of uncertainty of soccer — the FPI may be overrating the Payments or underrating another person, or one of many different groups might luck into the division title regardless of not being nearly as good as Buffalo total.
However that variance will at all times be there. Within the meantime, the Payments are once more in nearly as good a place because it will get to win their division.
Will the Bengals return to the playoffs?
In all probability! Cincinnati’s 2024 marketing campaign disappointingly ended within the common season regardless of quarterback Joe Burrow rating third in QBR, one of the best efficiency of his profession. However protection held the Bengals again, as they ranked twenty third in EPA allowed per play and significantly struggled towards the run, rating thirtieth in EPA in defending dashing performs.
However the lack of year-to-year continuity that occurs with good defenses additionally occurs with weaker items. Cincinnati changed defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo with Al Golden this offseason, which will increase the FPI’s uncertainty on that aspect of the ball. In the end, the mannequin forecasts the Bengals to have a mean protection, which strikes them to No. 7 within the total rankings.
The Ravens are by far the most certainly AFC North champion at 54%, and the Bengals are subsequent at 29%. However Cincinnati has a 60% likelihood to achieve the playoffs. That makes it the fourth-most-likely playoff crew within the AFC after lacking the postseason the previous two seasons.
Greatest playoff odds in every convention
AFC teamChanceNFC teamChanceBills81percentEagles76percentRavens79percentLions67percentChiefs77percent49ers62percentBengals60percentRams61percentChargers57percentBuccaneers59percentTexans54percentCommanders58percentBroncos49percentPackers51percentSteelers38percentVikings43percentDolphins38percentCardinals37percentColts37percentBears36%
Who ranks final?
The FPI’s Thirty second-ranked crew just isn’t the Titans, Browns or Giants. It is the Saints, who discover themselves on the backside of the rankings after the sudden retirement of veteran quarterback Derek Carr. His retirement forces New Orleans to depend on both second-round rookie Tyler Shough or second-year participant Spencer Rattler at quarterback, barring one other transfer. All rookie quarterbacks are seen as a detrimental within the FPI, however a second-rounder like Shough — who the mannequin presumes will begin — might be thought of slightly worse than Cameron Ward, whom Tennessee chosen with the No. 1 decide.
The excellent news for the Saints is that the FPI would not assume a lot of the NFC South. Solely the Buccaneers have a constructive FPI score (they rank 14th). The Falcons and Panthers rank twenty sixth and twenty eighth, respectively. Partially as a result of the division is so weak, all 4 NFC South groups rank within the backside six in power of schedule, which boosts every of their win projections. Consequently, the Saints have solely the fourth-best likelihood on the No. 1 decide within the 2026 draft regardless of their last-place total FPI rating.
Cleveland on the clock?
The Browns are the most certainly crew to finish the season holding the No. 1 decide within the 2026 NFL draft, with a 13% shot. A lot of that is because of a quarterback room comprising Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and a harder-than-average schedule.
The Giants are rated barely above the Browns within the FPI and have the second-highest likelihood to earn the No. 1 decide at 12%, resulting from going through the league’s most tough schedule. The Titans, Saints and Jets observe with 11%, 10% and 10% probabilities, respectively.
Projected 2026 NFL draft order
RankTeamChance at No. 1 pickChance at top-five pick1Browns13percent46percent2Giants12percent43percent3Titans11percent42percent4Saints10percent39percent5Jets10percent40percent6Panthers6percent30percent7Raiders4percent24percent8Falcons3percent19percent9Jaguars3percent19percent10Patriots3percent18%
