Final month, MLB Commerce Rumors printed an early Energy Rankings looking forward to the upcoming free agent class. Kyle Tucker was an apparent selection for the highest spot and Dylan Stop ended up fairly comfortably in second. The following few entrants have been harder to separate, however Bo Bichette ended up third.
Bichette’s free company was and is hard to peg. He has a robust monitor document of success, however his 2024 season was terrible. His bat has been sturdy on the entire, although with a swing-happy profile that lacks walks. His protection has been satisfactory sufficient to stay at quick, however he’s not nice there.
Of the potential prime free brokers this coming winter, he seemingly has among the widest error bars. This submit will check out the spectrum, utilizing MLBTR’s Contract Tracker as a information.
As you may see in that screenshot (hyperlink for app customers), I’ve used the dropdown bars to seek for free agent offers for shortstops over the previous 5 years. I’ve then ranked them by the full assure on the contract. There are some fairly clear tiers in incomes energy, so let’s see the place Bichette might slot in.
From 2019 by 2023, his manufacturing was fairly constant. He splashed onto the scene with a 143 wRC+ in 46 video games in his debut season however then his wRC+ completed within the 120 to 130 vary in every of the following 4 seasons. His dwelling run whole within the three full seasons from 2021 to 2023 fell between 20 and 29. His stroll price was on the low facet in every of these campaigns, falling between 4.5% and 5.9%, however he additionally struck out lower than common and ran batting averages close to .300.
The defensive evaluations have been blended. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -11 for his entire profession, although a giant chunk of that may be a -16 in 2022 alone, which seems to be like a transparent outlier. Aside from that, he’s typically been close to common, give or take a couple of runs on both facet. Outs Above Common, nevertheless, doesn’t like his glovework in any respect. Bichette has -22 OAA for his profession and has been under common in nearly each season. The one campaigns through which he’s completed with a optimistic OAA have been the shortened 2020 season and his injury-marred 2024 marketing campaign.
Nonetheless, the bat was sufficient to provide loads of worth. FanGraphs had him between 3.9 and 4.9 wins above substitute in every season from 2021 to 2023. Baseball Reference pegged him between 3.7 and 5.9.
Issues went off the rails final 12 months. Bichette seemingly battled leg accidents all 12 months, twice occurring the IL because of proper calf strains. He bought into simply 81 video games, hit solely 4 dwelling runs and produced an unpleasant .225/.277/.322 batting line, 71 wRC+.
Turning to 2025, Bichette appears to have bounced again to his outdated self. By means of 211 plate appearances, he has a .292/.341/.431 and 121 wRC+. That’s regardless of a sluggish begin. By means of the top of April, he nonetheless hadn’t hit a house run, resulting in a good however powerless .295/.328/.364 line and 97 wRC+. Because the calendar has flipped to Might, he has lastly gone over the fence 4 occasions, serving to him hit .288/.365/.561 for a wRC+ of 163 this month.
Turning to the Contract Tracker checklist, on the prime is a stage that Bichette shouldn’t be capable of get to, with Corey Seager at $325MM adopted by Trea Turner at $300MM. Seager bought his deal going into his age-28 season, the identical age Bichette shall be subsequent 12 months. Nonetheless, Seager was merely higher. His energy output was pretty near Bichette’s however with way more walks, resulting in a 142 wRC+. His protection was additionally graded increased.
Seager had 19.8 fWAR on the time he signed with the Rangers. Bichette might truly go previous that since he’s at 17.2 fWAR proper now, however that’s largely because of Seager’s accidents (most notably, Tommy John surgical procedure). Seager produced that WAR whole in simply 514 common season video games as a Dodger, whereas Bichette already has 655 video games underneath his belt. There was some damage threat with Seager however he was much better on a price foundation and that’s what the Rangers paid for.
Turner was a bit older, going into his age-30 season, however his mixture of offense, protection and pace gave him an enormous ceiling Bichette can’t match. In his last two seasons earlier than free company, he produced 7.1 and 6.4 fWAR. As talked about, Bichette has topped out at 4.9.
The following two names on the checklist are a bit uncommon. Xander Bogaerts getting $280MM registered as an enormous shock on the time and the deal hasn’t labored out for the Padres to date. Within the business, that one is chalked as much as the Friars going a bit wild. Proprietor Peter Seidler was unwell and was permitting the entrance workplace to spend like by no means earlier than, seemingly throwing warning to the wind with the information that he didn’t have a lot time left.
Carlos Correa’s deal can be an uncommon information level. His incomes energy was initially far increased. He had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM cope with the Giants earlier than they bought scared by his bodily and walked away. The Mets agreed to a 12-year $315MM cope with Correa earlier than they, too, balked at his medicals. The $200MM cope with the Twins was due to this fact the product of a reasonably unprecedented state of affairs. The distinctive quartet of vesting choices within the deal mirror the odd circumstances and will add hundreds of thousands extra to Correa’s checking account.
There’s a case for Bichette to be within the subsequent tier. I’ll circle again to Marcus Semien in a second and focus first on Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. Every signed his contract going into his age-29 season and earned between $23.3MM and $26MM yearly. Adames and Swanson bought a seventh 12 months, pushing their whole ensures to $182MM and $177MM respectively. Báez and Story have been every capped at six years and $140MM whole.
Bichette shall be one 12 months youthful than everybody in that group, theoretically giving him a bit extra incomes energy. The query shall be whether or not he’s ranked as extremely aside from that. Adames is a greater defender, with 11 OAA and -3 DRS in his profession. That latter determine is a bit odd, as he was clearly in optimistic vary earlier than posting -16 DRS 2024 and -7 as far as a Large.
Offensively, he had typically been just like Bichette. He had a 126 wRC+ in 2020 and a 120 in 2021, with 25 dwelling runs within the latter season. His energy remained in 2022 and 2023 however low batting averages dropped his wRC+ to 109 and 94 in these seasons. He bounced again in 2024 with 32 dwelling runs and a 119 wRC+. His fWAR totals have typically been within the Bichette vary of three to 5 per season.
Swanson was all the time a glove-first shortstop with questions concerning the bat. By means of 2021, he nonetheless had a profession 88 wRC+. However in 2022, his stroll 12 months, he hit 25 dwelling runs and produced a 117 wRC+. Because of his glorious protection and 18 stolen bases, he was capable of produce a 6.6 fWAR season. That was a tier above something Bichette has carried out, however he had solely carried out it as soon as. Nonetheless, it was sufficient for the Cubs to purchase in.
Báez and Story have been extra erratic. Báez was a subpar hitter in his first few seasons however offered sufficient on protection and the basepaths to be helpful. His offense improved as he neared free company however wasn’t constant. His wRC+ spiked to 131 in 2018 and dropped to 112 the 12 months after. The shortened 2020 season was a catastrophe, with a wRC+ of 57, earlier than he bounced again to 117 in 2021. At his heights, he was nearly a six-win participant, getting to five.8 and 5.6 fWAR in 2018 and 2019. These have been increased than any Bichette season, however he was additionally effectively under at occasions.
Considerably equally, Story hit the next peak than Bichette by producing 6.0 fWAR in 2019. He hit 35 dwelling runs, although taking part in in Denver through the juiced ball season certainly helped him a bit in that regard. Nonetheless, the 122 wRC+, 23 steals and powerful protection led to a six-win season. He additionally had 2.0 fWAR within the shortened 2020 marketing campaign with comparable manufacturing. However in his stroll 12 months, 2021, his wRC+ dropped to 98 and he solely produced 2.2 fWAR. That tepid platform season and a few issues about his elbow well being knocked him down a bit.
Right here is the fWAR whole for every within the six seasons resulting in free company, together with the shortened 2020 season for all within the title of equity:
Baez: 21.9 in 782 gamesStory: 20.3 in 745 gamesAdames: 20.1 in 795 gamesBichette: 15.8 in 609 gamesSwanson: 15.1 in 789 video games
Bichette is correct within the thick there. As talked about, Swanson bloomed in his stroll 12 months, so it is smart he could be on the backside of this six-year checklist. If Bichette has a typical 12 months for him, he might add one other three or 4 wins and get pretty near the opposite shorstops on the checklist. Consider some inflation and that he’s a 12 months youthful than everybody in that pack and he has a case to earn one thing round $200MM.
What will even work in his favor is that he’ll be the clear prime shortstop this winter, as Adames was in the latest offseason. Alongside Bichette, the one different potential on a regular basis shortstop this winter could be Ha-Seong Kim. He’s nonetheless recovering from final 12 months’s shoulder surgical procedure and must each recuperate and play effectively sufficient to choose out of the second season of his two-year cope with the Rays. Even in a best-case situation the place that every one occurs, his incomes energy could be under a wholesome and productive Bichette.
That is all nonetheless considerably hypothetical. As talked about, Bichette appears to be getting again to his 2021-23 tempo this 12 months, however in a reasonably small pattern. There’s nonetheless a lot of time for the season to activate him. If he finally ends up having extra 2024-style struggles, he might actually fall. Let’s flip to the Contract Tracker once more.
These are the highest offers for second basemen by common annual worth previously 5 years (hyperlink for app customers). This maybe paints an image of Bichette’s ground. Given his questionable protection, it’s attainable that golf equipment might view him as somebody who’s prone to transfer to second base pretty quickly. And the incomes energy of second basemen is clearly lesser than that of shortstops. Semien did get $175MM from the Rangers, although that’s an outlier. On the time, the Rangers have been 5 years right into a deep rebuild and have been keen to hurry up the method with aggressive spending.
Gleyber Torres is an attention-grabbing comp for Bichette, as there are some parallels. Torres was as soon as a highly-touted shortstop prospect, however with a greater bat than glove. Not like Bichette, he couldn’t stick at quick. The Yankees moved him to second base for good in 2022, his age-25 season.
His offensive manufacturing has been considerably similar to Bichette’s on the entire. He went into free company with a .265/.334/.441 line and 113 wRC+, a bit under Bichette’s typical vary. He additionally had a tepid platform 12 months, slashing .257/.330/.378 for a 104 wRC+ in 2024. He settled for a one-year, $15MM “show it” cope with the Tigers.
It at present appears unlikely that Bichette would fall fairly that far. His profession wRC+ of 120 is a couple of ticks above what Torres delivered to the open market final fall. Bichette additionally has a leg up defensively, as he shall be going into free company as a viable shortstop, at the very least for the quick time period.
However a smooth end in 2025 might hamper Bichette. In that situation, he’d be going into free company on the heels of two pretty disappointing seasons in a row. That was the state of affairs Cody Bellinger was in going into 2023. After two injury-marred seasons with the Dodgers, he was non-tendered and settled for a one-year, $17.5MM pact with the Cubs for his age-27 season. He bounced again that 12 months and went into the open market forward of his age-28 marketing campaign.
However there have been sufficient query marks from his inconsistency, well being and protection that he settled for a three-year, $80MM deal to return to the Cubs, effectively under preliminary expectations. He earned opt-out possibilities after every season in that deal however declined the primary probability after a good-not-great 2024 season.
Time will inform the place Bichette in the end places himself on this incomes spectrum, however it seems to be fairly extensive. Something from $20MM to $200MM appears considerably believable, relying on his efficiency over the four-plus months, which is able to make him an interesting participant to trace.
A qualifying supply could be one thing of a footnote when speaking a couple of $200MM deal however would definitely turn out to be noteworthy if Bichette finds himself on the opposite finish. The QO was $21.05MM in the latest offseason and can certainly go up for the approaching winter, after quite a few current mega offers. The QO is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 top-paid gamers. Every of Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Corbin Burnes earned AAVs of $35MM or increased lately. Although there are some deferrals in these offers, the QO worth is certain to rise.
Bichette would solely be eligible to obtain a QO if he sticks with the Jays till the top of the season. Gamers traded midseason should not eligible to obtain one. If the Jays fall out of the race and commerce Bichette on the deadline, the QO gained’t be an element for him — one more element that would sway a risky free agent case with many components at play.
Picture of Bichette courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Photographs
