Whereas this 12 months’s commerce deadline continues to be greater than three months away, there’s maybe no extra apparent commerce candidate within the recreation proper now than Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. The 2022 NL Cy Younger award winner, Alcantara missed final season resulting from Tommy John surgical procedure however is again in motion with Miami this 12 months. Whereas he was out of fee, the Marlins tore the roster that made the playoffs in 2023 right down to the studs, buying and selling everybody from Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. With no sign of ending to the rebuild and Alcantara managed by way of the 2027 season, it might be an entire shock if the Marlins held onto him till his contract got here to a detailed.
At any time when the Marlins commerce Alcantara, he’s positive to be a particularly sought-after commodity. The appropriate-hander’s 4.70 ERA in three begins this 12 months is way from spectacular, however his peripherals have seemed higher. He’s producing grounders at an outstanding 65.1% clip with a 3.86 FIP and a 3.91 xERA regardless of his lackluster 19% strikeout fee and 12.7% stroll fee. These strikeout and stroll figures will turn out to be regarding in the event that they maintain up over a bigger pattern measurement, however until that involves go, it appears truthful to count on the righty to return to his earlier dominant kind. Since his full-season debut in 2019, Alcantara has posted a 3.33 ERA with a 3.71 FIP, a 51% grounder fee, and a 21.4% strikeout fee in opposition to a 7.1% stroll fee.
These numbers don’t maintain a candle to his Cy Younger season, the place he posted a 2.28 ERA and a pair of.80 FIP in a marketing campaign that led MLB with 8.0 bWAR, nevertheless it’s nonetheless clearly front-of-the-rotation caliber manufacturing total. Maybe much more attractive to groups than Alcantara’s fee manufacturing is his standing as a real workhorse in a recreation the place arms able to pitching deep into video games regularly have turn out to be vanishingly uncommon. Alcantara hasn’t posted lower than 184 2/3 innings in any of his 4 full seasons, and his 858 1/3 innings of labor from 2019 to 2023 had been second solely to Gerrit Cole. That form of quantity would have worth even when Alcantara was a league-average pitcher, given the growing issue with which groups are pressured to piece collectively their rotations.
He’s additionally interesting from a monetary perspective. He’s making $17MM this 12 months and subsequent 12 months, lower than half of what another ace pitchers get. Then there’s a $2MM buyout on a $21MM membership choice for 2027.
Given his ace-level upside, workhorse popularity, years of management, and reasonably priced contract, Alcantara’s standing as probably the most invaluable commerce chips within the sport is unlikely to vary. That provides the Marlins the flexibility to remain versatile with their plans concerning the prized righty. Reporters Will Sammon of The Athletic and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald have urged that the Marlins haven’t but determined in the event that they’ll commerce Alcantara in any respect this season. Alcantara himself tells Jackson that he desires to remain in Miami however is conscious that he has no say within the matter. “I’m [just] a participant,” he mentioned. “In the event that they wish to commerce me for a bag, they will commerce me.” Whereas the righty ultimately getting moved seems to be one thing of a fait accompli, the Fish would nonetheless have two full seasons of crew management to market in the event that they opted to maneuver him this offseason as an alternative.
In fact, groups will probably be keen to pay the next premium for Alcantara on the deadline, after they’d have him obtainable for 3 pennant races and he wouldn’t be competing with a free agent market wealthy in rotation expertise like Dylan Stop, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez. Except the 8-10 Marlins are in a position to make a shock surge into competition for an NL Wild Card spot this summer time or Alcantara’s efficiency declines sufficient that profitable commerce affords begin to dry up, it’s arduous to see the membership getting extra worth out of their star by ready for the offseason. With that mentioned, one other 12 months of data concerning their prospects and younger gamers may permit them to make extra knowledgeable choices about which areas of the roster to focus on enhancements for within the return bundle.
May the Marlins profit from transferring Alcantara even earlier, as they did with Arraez final Might? Such a choice wouldn’t give Alcantara a lot of a chance to show he’s wholesome and again to his normal kind, however the additional few months of begins might be very enticing to golf equipment just like the Yankees, Cubs, and Padres which are coping with harm woes of their rotation already. What’s extra, it’s not not possible to think about a crew just like the Astros (Valdez), Twins (Pablo Lopez), or Royals (Seth Lugo) that’s presently making an attempt to compete winding up on the skin of the playoff image come July and advertising and marketing their very own high starters. That will give potential suitors for Alcantara various choices they absolutely wouldn’t have obtainable to them this early within the calendar.
When do MLBTR readers assume the Marlins ought to begin making an attempt to commerce Alcantara? Would leaping the market and opening up the bidding now permit them to maximise their asset, ought to they wait to see if Alcantara can re-establish himself extra earlier than placing him available on the market this summer time, or may ready even longer to deal him this offseason be the perfect course to take? Have your say within the ballot beneath:
