Would you rather play the Hawks or Magic in Round 1?

By this time tomorrow, we’ll know who Boston will likely be internet hosting for Recreation 1 of the NBA Playoffs on Sunday. And whereas it may not appear to matter who the 61-win Celtics play within the first spherical, no sequence is only a formality.

Whereas a 22-5 file after the All-Star break means that the workforce is peaking on the proper time, there are nonetheless a handful of query marks heading into the postseason. Jaylen Brown’s troublesome knee and reviews of a number of ache administration injections are actually trigger for concern. There’s at all times a sense of apprehension over the age of Al Horford and the well being of Kristaps Porzingis, too. And eventually, I’m positive we haven’t heard the final of whether or not or not the Celtics’ three-point capturing is one in every of their strengths or a cause for his or her eventual downfall.

So, who ought to we be rooting for tonight within the Play-In Event?

Principally, my intestine tells me {that a} sequence with Orlando could be bodily troublesome however brief and a sequence with Atlanta might go lengthy, however could be extra of an train in variance greater than the rest.

Boston had a shedding file in opposition to 4 groups this season — the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder (0-2), the Indiana Pacers (1-2), and sure, the Hawks (1-2) and Magic (1-2). Little doubt motivation, timing, and well being had one thing to do in these losses, but it surely’s not like both workforce couldn’t take a number of video games off of the Celtics within the playoffs. Alas, something is feasible.

Right here’s CelticsBlog’s Ben Paradis on Orlando’s bruising model: “The Magic are younger, hungry, and difficult on protection. If the Celtics lose focus the Magic can exploit them.” What scares me about them is that due to a scarcity of ability (twenty ninth in eFG%, twenty sixth in AST/TO price), they’ve relied closely on effort and physicality. Led by Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, two wings that invite tough play, they’ll take it to the Celtics as a result of frankly, that’s actually the one method they’ll win.

Atlanta, alternatively, nonetheless has Trae Younger, one of many league’s most efficient offensive engines. After February sixth after they dealt Bogdan Bogdanovich for Terance Mann and Bones Hyland and De’Andre Hunter for Caris LeVert and Georges Niang, they’ve boasted a 118.9 offensive score. Certain, they’re vulnerable on protection and are with out Jalen Johnson, however Dyson Daniels (more than likely a First Crew All-Defender) and Onyeka Okongwu might trigger issues even for an offense as versatile because the Celtics’. Ben once more:

“Atlanta is scrappy — and no stranger to creating issues nearer than they need to be. The Celtics blew them out within the first assembly with out Brown or Porzingis, however the subsequent two video games had been tight, together with a wild NBA Cup loss with out Trae Younger and an infuriating extra time defeat in January.

The Hawks hold round. They linger even when it looks like they’re achieved for.”

Again in 2023, an identical Hawks workforce led by Younger received two video games and made that opening sequence a bit of uncomfortable.

Nevertheless, the underside line is that I’d slightly get right into a chess match, shootout with the Hawks as a result of over seven video games, the mathematics will work out in Boston’s favor slightly than wrestle within the Orlando Octagon and threat harm to one in every of our top-6.

Sure, the playoffs are completely different. Sure, Boston can get down and soiled in the event that they should. Sure, you possibly can’t play with a concern of harm. Sure, the numbers don’t at all times add up. And sure, I nonetheless suppose they’ll get out of Spherical 1 no matter who they’ll face. I’d simply slightly come out in a single piece.