Scouting the Celtics’ potential first round opponents

With the Celtics locked into the second seed and the playoffs on the horizon, it’s that point of yr after we begin sizing up potential opponents. Because of the Play-In format, Boston might face any of the 4 groups ranked seventh by way of tenth within the Japanese Convention.

Whereas some may pencil Boston into the second spherical already, every of those groups brings one thing totally different to the desk. Right now, I’ll break down their strengths, weaknesses, how they’ve fared towards the Celtics, and what Boston should do to win.

Orlando Magic (50.9%)

Boston went 1-2 towards Orlando this season, however the context issues. One loss got here throughout a dreadful capturing evening (beneath 25% from deep), and the opposite noticed the Celtics relaxation all their starters. Of their lone full-squad effort, Boston dominated 121-94.

Orlando has an thrilling younger wing duo in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, however they lack the depth and expertise to maintain tempo with elite groups.

Keys to Victory:

Power the ball out of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner’s palms.

The Magic’s power is wing play with Banchero and Wagner, however the Celtics have confirmed they will make them uncomfortable. By zeroing in on Wagner and Banchero with distinctive defensive schemes — like a box-and-one from the win — the Celtics can pressure the remainder of the Magic squad to beat them.

With a comparatively weak supporting forged, a scoring barrage from the Magic’s “different guys” could be a uncommon sight in a playoff ambiance. Moreover, even when the matchup turns into a shootout between every staff’s wing duo, I like Boston’s odds with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Pack the paint on protection

Orlando is actually dangerous at capturing threes. They shoot 31.5% from past the arc, the worst within the league by two p.c — sure, even worse than groups just like the Wizards who’re most likely attempting to overlook.

Boston can pack the paint and pressure Magic drivers into kickouts. There gained’t be many threats on the surface to punish the Celtics in these conditions. In the event that they do discover some rhythm past the arc, like the primary matchup, I count on the Celtics to regulate accordingly this time. Nonetheless, that earlier capturing efficiency appears extra like an anomaly than the norm.

Set up the three-pointer early

This could possibly be a key for any Celtics sport, however it’s particularly vital towards the Magic. The Magic common essentially the most blocks per sport of any staff (5.9 per sport) and the second least opponent paint factors per sport — they proved it with 9 blocks towards the Celtics of their first win.

Because the Celtics weren’t flattening their threes, Orlando collapsed the paint and was prepared for pressured drives and post-ups. Nonetheless, when the Celtics have been cashing in at their traditional clip within the subsequent sport, issues opened up.

Whereas Derrick White and Payton Pritchard have been getting going from the surface, Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis have been doing harm within the paint with a lot cleaner driving lanes — and that’s the great thing about Celtics basketball. If the Celtics don’t wish to play into Orlando’s hand, they have to begin hitting from past the arc early.

Consensus:

Whereas there are particular matchups that the Celtics can expose with regularity, this sequence nonetheless gained’t be a cakewalk. The Celtics are 3-4 of their final seven matchups towards Orlando.

The Magic are younger, hungry, and hard on protection. If the Celtics lose focus the Magic can exploit them. Nonetheless, if the Celtics play to their strengths and keep away from chilly spells or psychological lapses, they need to deal with the Magic in 5. This may be the hardest of the potential play-in matchups, however Boston has the sting.

Atlanta Hawks (25.3%)

Atlanta is scrappy — and no stranger to creating issues nearer than they need to be. The Celtics blew them out within the first assembly with out Brown or Porzingis, however the subsequent two video games have been tight, together with a wild NBA Cup loss with out Trae Younger and an infuriating time beyond regulation defeat in January.

The Hawks dangle round. They linger even when it looks as if they’re accomplished for. If Boston desires to keep away from any pointless drama, right here’s what must occur.

Keys to Victory:

Rebound, rebound, rebound

The Hawks have bested the Celtics within the rebound class in each wins, particularly on offense. Within the NBA Cup, the Hawks hauled in 20 offensive rebounds which was capped off by an embarrassing put-back to seal the sport.

Continually having a paint presence to fend off Atlanta’s savvy rebounders might be key. When Porzingis and Al Horford have been out within the January matchup, Luke Kornet was really phenomenal on the boards. The Celtics’ downfall was immediately correlated to when Joe Mazzulla unusually determined to play small ball to shut the sport.

Will probably be an all-around effort on the boards, because the Hawks host loads of athletic wings. Boston wants a constant paint presence, particularly from Porzingis and Horford, but in addition gang rebounding from the wings to cease guys like Risacher and Daniels from crashing in.

The Hawks common the second most steals of any staff within the league, and that has proven towards the Celtics. Of their final matchup, Boston turned the ball over 20 occasions, 16 of which have been from Atlanta steals.

Atlanta likes to play quick, pushing the ball down the ground after they create turnovers. If the Celtics can pressure the Hawks into predominantly working half-court offense, they are going to be a lot simpler to cease.

Trae Younger is likely one of the worst defenders within the NBA, and the Celtics ought to make it their mission to seek out him on each change. The truth is, the Celtics’ largest wrestle got here when Younger was out.

I can already see it. Jrue Vacation does one among his signature “I’m going to place my shoulder down and pile drive my defender into the ring for a left-hand layup” strikes and embarrasses Younger.

Even when Vacation, or another participant driving on Younger, would not rating, the pressured collapse will create incredible alternatives for the Celtics’ offense.

Consensus

The final time these groups confronted off within the playoffs, the Celtics gained 4-2 in a primary spherical matchup. Per traditional, Atlanta hung round and made a 2-0 sequence sadly tight ultimately.

For a Boston staff that wishes to make a deep playoff run, it might be of their greatest curiosity to place the main target up, put the Hawks away shortly, and never waste any power.

Miami Warmth (13.0%)

Boston and Miami aren’t any strangers to one another over the previous few years, however the feeling is totally different this time round. With out Jimmy Butler, the Warmth are a shell of themselves, and “Warmth tradition” doesn’t appear to imply a lot anymore.

The Celtics are 3-1 towards the Miami Warmth this season, with two dominant blowout wins and one shut loss after a protracted highway journey. Though they aren’t very threatening, they might nonetheless be issues to scrub up in a possible matchup.

Keys to Victory:

Management the Herro-Adebayo Choose and Roll

Miami gained the final sport largely as a result of Boston enjoying drop protection on excessive decide and rolls. The philosophy was sound; working over the display screen forces the worst shot in usually low proportion mid-range photographs. Nonetheless, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have their decide and roll all the way down to a science.

Herro had his manner, both choosing up pace for a artistic drive that normally resulted in a foul, freezing the protection with a easy pull-up, or throwing it again out to Bam. This was the engine that made the Warmth hum.

Having Jrue Vacation, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis again will assist the Celtics cease Miami’s motion, however they’ll nonetheless want to speak on switches and keep away from previous errors.

Dictate the tempo and restrict turnovers

Erik Spoelstra is a incredible coach, however he is aware of his staff doesn’t have an incredible likelihood. His best choice might be to attempt to drag the Celtics into lengthy, drawn-out offensive possessions so the Warmth can arrange their protection.

The Warmth might not be the identical staff of years previous, however they haven’t misplaced their grind-it-out playstyle on protection. If the Celtics can push the ball down the courtroom and keep away from isolation-heavy offense in any respect prices, they will keep away from this entice.

Care for enterprise early

Within the two blowout wins to start out the season sequence, the Celtics put their foot down early towards Miami. Within the different two video games, they let Miami construct some early momentum. The very last thing the Celtics need is for the Warmth pondering they’ve a shot.

If Boston lets the Warmth dangle round, they’ll begin believing — and that’s when Spoelstra’s squad turns into harmful. Shut the door earlier than it opens.

Consensus

To be frank, there isn’t a lot to fret about with this Miami squad. Moreover, Miami will most likely tank their manner out of a playoff spot. Nonetheless, they’re one of many best-coached groups within the league and definitely have unfavorable emotions in the direction of the Celtics.

Chicago Bulls (10.9%)

Chicago could be locked within the tenth seed once more, however this yr’s group has a bit extra life. With Giddey, White, and rookie Matas Buzelis giving them a contemporary look, there’s one thing to construct on. Boston went 3-1 towards them, together with two snug 20+ level wins.

One loss got here throughout Boston’s mid-season stoop — poor capturing, technical fouls, and all-around frustration. However exterior of that, the Celtics have largely cruised towards Chicago.

Porzingis appears to like enjoying the Chicago Bulls, as he has averaged 24.3 factors and eight.5 rebounds towards them this season. Most lately, he had 34 factors and 11 rebounds in one among his greatest shows of the season.

The Bulls don’t have anybody to bang with him on the within and by no means appear to discover a answer — look no additional than his 8 consecutive factors within the 2nd quarter of the December sport.

Even when Porzingis is not doing harm from the block, Nikola Vucevic can’t sustain with him on the surface. Getting KP concerned early will open every thing up.

Don’t die with the three

The Celtics have confirmed that they’re prepared to dwell and die by the three-point shot, however that’s not crucial towards the Bulls. If issues flip chilly, drives to the basket have to be the reply.

On December nineteenth, the Celtics misplaced to the Bulls as a result of they pressured three-pointers up whereas they weren’t falling. Simply two days later, they blew Chicago out of the water by forcing the ball into the paint. In that sport, they gained the factors within the paint battle 60-38, and 32 of their 100 photographs got here immediately on the cup.

Even when the three-ball is falling, the Celtics shouldn’t overlook that the paint is open for the taking. A wholesome stability inside and out of doors of the arc would result in some blowouts.

Don’t overthink it, give the ball to Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum is averaging 31.3 factors, 11.8 rebounds, and 6.0 assists towards the Bulls this season. In the event you dropped his uncharacteristic 16-point efficiency within the newest matchup, his averages could be lurching nearer to 40 factors per sport.

It’s fairly easy. The Bulls don’t have anybody able to bothering Tatum. It’s fairly easy. Chicago has among the worst wing depth in your complete league, and Jayson Tatum simply so occurs to be the most effective wing within the league.

Generally it’s simply as simple as placing the ball in Large Deuce’s palms.

Consensus

The Bulls aren’t an actual risk — however they aren’t the identical stagnant staff from previous years, both. They’ve received younger power and just a little confidence. Nonetheless, Boston ought to roll by way of this sequence in 4 or 5 video games, particularly in the event that they preserve it easy and lean on their stars.