The most important information from the baseball world of late is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500MM extension with the Blue Jays, which can preserve him in Toronto by way of the top of the 2039 season. Guerrero and Kyle Tucker have been broadly considered as the highest free brokers of the approaching offseason. Now that Guerrero is off the board, the highest of the mountain belongs to Tucker, the famous person outfielder who the Cubs gave up an enormous package deal (All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes, younger starter Hayden Wesneski, and first-rounder Cam Smith) to accumulate forward of his closing 12 months of crew management.
Tucker’s actually validated that perception in him as an impression participant throughout the early going this season. A profession .276/.356/.520 hitter, he’s taken his sport to a fair increased stage lately. Tucker emerged as an early-season MVP candidate final 12 months earlier than being restricted to simply 78 video games by a fractured shin, however even in his final 250 video games relationship again to 2023, the 28-year-old is hitting .288/.387/.548 with a wRC+ of 157. That’s the fifth-highest determine amongst all hitters with not less than 1,000 plate appearances throughout that point, trailing solely Aaron Decide, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and former teammate Yordan Alvarez.
That lofty firm, mixed with the large expectations created by $700MM+ offers for the top-rated free agent in back-to-back offseasons, created loads of intrigue about the place Guerrero’s contract might find yourself previous to his extension with the Jays. His $500MM deal falls wanting that $700MM mark each Ohtani and Soto reached, though Ohtani’s deal contains large quantities of deferred cash that make it decrease than Guerrero’s pact by way of internet current worth. Questions stay, nonetheless, about how Tucker’s personal eventual deal will examine to these names. Notably, Tucker doesn’t have the kind of standout carrying device that different high stars have. He’s not a risk to hit 60 homers like Decide, lacks Soto’s otherworldly strike zone recognition, and positively isn’t the kind of once-in-a-century athlete Ohtani has proved himself to be.
With all that being mentioned, nonetheless, Tucker will get to that elite tier of manufacturing by being properly above common at nearly the whole lot. Amongst hitters with not less than 1000 plate appearances over the previous three seasons, Tucker’s barrel charge (11.7%) is top-30 within the majors, and his remoted slugging proportion is seventh greatest. He mixed that glorious energy with equally glorious plate self-discipline; his 14.1% strikeout charge is the eleventh-lowest, whereas his 13.8% stroll charge is fourth behind Decide, Soto, and Kyle Schwarber. Whereas Soto stays the one participant to stroll extra typically than he strikes out, the 0.3% distinction between Tucker’s strikeout and stroll charges is the smallest among the many remainder of the league.
Tucker’s expertise within the batters’ field is additional augmented by sturdy work in different areas of the sport. He’s a well-regarded defender in proper discipline who received the AL’s Gold Glove award on the place in 2019, and whereas he’s not proven a capability to play a premium place like heart discipline, it appears unlikely that he’ll have to make a transfer down the defensive spectrum to DH or first base any time quickly. He’s additionally proved to be a stable contributor on the bases. Regardless of middling foot pace, Tucker has managed to log 91 steals in 102 makes an attempt for the reason that begin of the 2020 season. That’s good for an exceptional 89.2% success charge, and contains 25- and 30-steal efforts throughout the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. Tucker was properly on his strategy to one other 20+ steal season in 2024 earlier than being sidelined by damage, and with three luggage swiped in simply 15 video games this 12 months it wouldn’t be a shock to see him steal greater than his fair proportion of additional bases this season as properly.
Given Tucker’s all-around spectacular talent set, it’s not laborious to see why groups might be clamoring to deliver him into the fold this winter. There’s even a reasonably sturdy argument to be made that Tucker is a extra worthwhile participant than Guerrero, provided that their profession numbers are comparatively related on the dish and Tucker is a much more worthwhile participant within the discipline and on the basepaths. With that being mentioned, Tucker’s age might maintain him again considerably relative to the offers landed by Soto and Guerrero. Soto hit free company forward of his age-26 season, whereas Guerrero is at present within the midst of his personal age-26 marketing campaign. Tucker, who turned 28 in January, is 2 years older than Guerrero and might be advertising himself three years older than Soto was this previous offseason.
It’s attainable that would preserve him under that half-billion greenback threshold that solely Guerrero and Soto have managed to succeed in by measure of internet current worth, however he might nonetheless be in for an enormous payday. In any case, Decide landed $360MM over 9 years in free company when advertising his age-31 season, whereas Ohtani was roughly the identical age as Tucker when he landed his contract, which has a internet current worth of slightly below $461MM for luxurious tax functions. Marquee Sports activities Community’s Lance Brozdowski reported on his Cubs Each day Podcast earlier this week that an individual from Tucker’s company, Excel Sports activities Administration, prompt an estimate of $475MM over ten years for Tucker’s eventual contract. That determine clearly comes with caveats aplenty provided that the supply is Tucker’s personal company and he’s simply 15 video games into his platform season, however that quantity would high each Decide and Ohtani’s contracts by way of NPV.
How do MLBTR readers imagine Tucker’s contract scenario will play out? Will he have the ability to crack the $500MM threshold that solely Soto and Guerrero have crossed to date? Have your say within the ballot under:
