As Jacob deGrom Returns, the Rangers Look Like Contenders

Jacob deGrom made his Cactus League debut on Saturday, tossing two good innings towards the Royals and searching dominant whereas doing so. The 36-year-old righty, who returned from his second Tommy John surgical procedure to make three abbreviated begins final September, tasks to be the crew’s most precious starter, even whereas pitching behind the rotation as a way to restrict his innings. He’s probably the most substantial “addition” to a crew that succumbed to a championship hangover final yr however is forecast (barely) to have the higher hand in a three-way race within the AL West.

After successful the 2023 World Sequence in supervisor Bruce Bochy’s return to the dugout, a lot went unsuitable for the Rangers by way of damage and underperformance final season that they slipped to 78 wins and third place within the AL West. However whereas the Astros traded Kyle Tucker and misplaced Alex Bregman this winter, and the Mariners largely sat on their arms, the Rangers had a relatively productive winter, with normal supervisor Chris Younger making a pair key trades and including a handful of free brokers to reinforce their lineup and overhaul their bullpen. Our Playoff Odds at the moment venture Texas for 84.8 wins and a 32.8% likelihood of successful the division, in comparison with 84.4 wins for the opposite two groups, with Seattle’s odds at 30.6% and Houston’s at 29.4%. Clearly, that’s a real toss-up, however issues look higher for the Rangers than at the beginning of final yr, when at the same time as reigning champs, they projected for 81.8 wins (and 10.7% odds) to the Astros’ 90.5.

In contrast to Jake Burger, Kyle Higashioka, Chris Martin and Joc Pederson — probably the most distinguished exterior additions to this roster — deGrom was already a Ranger, having signed a five-year, $185 million deal in December 2022. But his contribution since placing pen to paper has been minimal. He made simply six begins earlier than needing one other restore of his torn ulnar collateral ligament on June 12, 2023 (his first was in 2010). Fifteen months and in the future later, he returned to throw 10.2 innings unfold over three begins, sufficient to offer some peace of thoughts heading into the offseason.

Not desiring to push deGrom for a 200-inning workload like he managed from 2017–19, the Rangers have ramped him up extra slowly. Final week, they introduced that he’ll pitch behind the rotation, debuting both in Arlington on March 30 towards the Purple Sox or in Cincinnati on March 31 towards the Reds. On Saturday, he made his spring debut within the crew’s fifteenth Cactus League recreation. He threw 31 pitches (21 strikes) over two good innings, putting out three: Kyle Isbel taking a look at a slider, Bobby Witt Jr. chasing a slider low and away, and Tyler Gentry taking a look at an outdoor strike that ought to have been a ball.

DeGrom went to a three-ball rely solely towards Vinnie Pasquantino within the first inning; he recovered from a 3-1 rely, getting the Royals slugger to foul off a few pitches earlier than popping up a slider. He received 4 whiffs in all, three by way of the slider, and 11 referred to as strikes for a 35% CSW fee. His four-seam fastball averaged 97 mph and topped out at 98, whereas his slider averaged 90.3 mph. He blended in simply two curveballs.

DeGrom’s acknowledged aim of creating 30 begins might be a bit formidable. Our Depth Charts venture him for someplace round 22 begins totaling 132 innings, however a good-looking 2.99 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 4.0 WAR. The Rangers didn’t also have a pitcher attain 3.0 WAR final yr; Nathan Eovaldi led the workers with 2.7, and the group ranked simply twenty second within the majors with 9.7 WAR. Max Scherzer, who underwent December 2023 surgical procedure for a herniated disc after being compelled off the World Sequence roster, made simply 9 begins; he’s gone in free company, as is Andrew Heaney, the one Ranger to make 30 begins final yr, and one in every of two in addition to Eovaldi to high 100 innings.

Thus the rotation has been reshaped, albeit with none notable exterior additions. After hitting free company, Eovaldi re-signed on a three-year, $75 million deal, accounting for more cash than the Rangers assured to their different seven main league free brokers mixed. Righties Jon Grey and Tyler Mahle and lefty Cody Bradford are anticipated to spherical out the rotation. None had full seasons within the majors final yr. Grey was restricted to 19 begins by a recurrent groin pressure and a neuroma in his proper foot. Bradford, a former sixth-round decide who entered final season because the crew’s no. 9 prospect (45 FV), made 13 begins, together with simply three in April earlier than a decrease again pressure sidelined him for 3 and a half months. Mahle, signed to a two-year, $22 million deal whereas halfway by way of rehabbing from Could 2023 Tommy John surgical procedure, made simply three begins earlier than returning to the injured listing resulting from shoulder tightness.

With 2022 first spherical decide Kumar Rocker and ’21 first rounder Jack Leiter additionally anticipated to contribute after debuting final yr — Rocker’s three begins went fairly nicely, however Leiter was lit up — the Rangers rotation tasks to be one of many majors’ finest. They rank ninth on our Depth Charts with a projected 13.4 WAR; 4 groups, together with the starter-rich Mariners, are tied instantly above them at 13.5 WAR.

Turning to the bullpen, final yr’s unit wasn’t a lot to jot down house about, rating twenty fifth within the majors in WAR (2.0) whereas posting a 4.41 ERA and 4.37 FIP. With six of the seven relievers who threw at the least 25 innings not within the group — together with free brokers David Robertson, José Leclerc, José Ureña, and Kirby Yates — it’s an entire new ballgame for the group. The crew acquired lefty Robert Garcia from the Nationals in a December commerce for Nathaniel Lowe, and inked 5 pitchers to main league offers, plus one other three to minor league offers:

None of those guys saved greater than two video games final yr, and solely Jackson and Martin have greater than eight profession saves (19 for the previous, 14 for the latter). Mentioned Bochy final week, “Proper now, I’d say we aren’t going to have an outlined nearer… We’ve got some guys that we expect we are able to get the matchups that we wish.”

The overhauled bullpen ranks a good eleventh on our Depth Charts, with Martin, Garcia, and Webb one of the best bets for high-leverage work to start out the yr. Among the many holdovers, one in every of final yr’s starters, Dane Dunning, tasks to be the lengthy man, whereas going-on-24-year-old righty Marc Church, a 40+ FV prospect who debuted with a scoreless inning final September 28, might play a big position. Church, who was restricted to 25.2 innings by a shoulder pressure final yr whereas splitting time between Excessive- and Triple-A, is a transformed infielder whose fastball has touched 99 mph this spring, and whose slider/cutter has been graded plus by a number of shops. Bochy believes he has the stuff to be a high-leverage reliever, saying, “I see him having that position someday down the street right here. It could possibly be after we break camp. That is how good we expect he might be.”

As for the lineup, hopes had been excessive final yr {that a} full season of late-2023 phenom Evan Carter, plus the addition of no. 2 total prospect Wyatt Langford, and continued sturdy manufacturing from a 20-something core (Lowe, Jonah Heim, Josh Jung, Leody Taveras) to reinforce their 30-and-over heavy hitters (Adolis García, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien) would add as much as a potent offense. As a substitute, nearly all people talked about save for Langford and the departed Lowe took steps again both resulting from accidents or regression, and the crew fell from a 116 wRC+ (third within the majors in 2023) to a 95 (twenty second) whereas scoring 198 fewer runs (4.22 per recreation, eighth within the AL).

The Rangers didn’t even escape the primary week of final season unscathed, as Jung was hit on the correct wrist by a pitch on April 1, struggling a fracture that required surgical procedure that saved him sidelined till late July. He performed simply 46 video games earlier than being shut down in mid-September for surgical procedure to launch a tendon. Carter, a September 2023 call-up who positioned twelfth on final yr’s High 100 Prospects listing, performed simply 45 video games and managed an 80 wRC+ earlier than being sidelined by a lumbar sprain in late Could; he didn’t play once more. Langford, the fourth decide of the 2023 draft and no. 2 on our High 100, managed only a 68 wRC+ by way of the season’s first 5 weeks earlier than lacking three weeks resulting from a hamstring pressure. Although he had his ups and downs, he nonetheless completed with a 110 wRC+ and a good 2.9 WAR. Seager, contemporary off successful his second World Sequence MVP award earlier than his thirtieth birthday, really performed extra video games in 2024 than ’23 (123 vs. 119), however didn’t play after September 2 resulting from surgical procedure to restore a sports activities hernia.

But accidents didn’t clarify every little thing. García, who was changed on the World Sequence roster resulting from an indirect pressure after successful ALCS MVP honors, was wholesome final season however his manufacturing took a nosedive, from a 126 wRC+ and 4.6 WAR to a 92 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR. Heim, like García, slipped from All-Star to alternative degree, which in his case meant a plummet from a 105 wRC+ and 4.0 WAR to a 70 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR. Semien, who tied Seager for second within the AL in WAR (6.3) in 2023, fell from a 126 wRC+ to a 99, along with his WAR dipping to a still-respectable 4.2.

Younger didn’t break the financial institution to shore up the lineup, however he didn’t stand idle both. In December, the Rangers signed Higashioka to a two-year, $13.5 million deal to pair with Heim, who over the previous three seasons has caught extra innings than all however three catchers. Higashioka, who spent final season with the Padres, hit .220/.263/.476 with profession highs in homers (17), wRC+ (105) and WAR (1.6, matching his 2022 exhibiting with the Yankees). Each members of the tandem rank among the many majors’ high 10 in framing runs over the previous three seasons. They’ll break up the catching duties.

Later in December, Younger acquired Burger from the Marlins in trade for a trio of prospects, then dealt away Lowe. Burger, who turns 29 on April 10, will take over at first base. Whereas his offensive efficiency (.250/.301/.460, 106 wRC+) wasn’t pretty much as good as Lowe’s (.265/.361/.401, 120 wRC+), he presents extra energy and may assist the crew enhance upon a meager .380 SLG. Additionally including welcome energy is Pederson, who signed a two-year, $37 million deal in December. He’s coming off a stellar .275/.393/.515 (151 wRC+) exhibiting with the Diamondbacks, setting across-the-board profession highs with that slash line and three.0 WAR. Whereas some regression is probably going as he heads into his age-33 season, because the lengthy half of a DH platoon he ought to assist the Rangers enhance considerably on the AL-worst 65 wRC+ they obtained from their DHs (primarily Langford, García, Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski and Josh Smith).

Concerning the outfield, past the addition of 36-year-old righty Kevin Pillar, who hit simply .229/.291/.377 (88 wRC+) with the White Sox and Angels, and signed a minor league deal final month, the Rangers hope that the 23-year-old Langford, 21-year-old Carter, 32-year-old García, and 26-year-old Taveras is usually a lot extra productive than in 2024. It’s not the worst guess provided that the group skews younger, but it surely’s not like they’ve received further high 20 prospects in reserve if they should patch issues.

As their win projection suggests, the Rangers don’t appear to be a powerhouse. However neither do the Astros or Mariners, and with the losses of Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil and Giancarlo Stanton, even the Yankees’ AL-best projection is all the way down to 85.7 wins. Whereas there aren’t any scarcity of ifs right here — if deGrom can lastly contribute, if Carter and García can rebound, if Jung can keep wholesome, if the bullpen can jell — the Rangers have sufficient expertise that this could possibly be a really aggressive crew.