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RosterResource Chat – 3/7/25

March 7, 2025
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Reading Time: 20 mins read
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2:01

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Stay Chat.

20 days till official Opening Day! 11 days till Dodgers-Cubs in Tokyo!

Loads of fascinating place battles to debate. Some created by accidents. Others by gamers placing up massive numbers this spring.

Right here’s the up to date Opening Day Tracker …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/opening-day-tracker

And right here we go …

2:02

Michael: What are your ideas in regards to the Tampa Bay infield/DH state of affairs? Is Aranda or Mead the higher funding this 12 months?

2:02

Matt B.: What does the TB bench seem like when Kim comes again?

2:04

Avatar Jon Becker: Welcome everybody, comfortable Friday! With Mead doing very well in Spring Coaching and having just a little extra positional flexibility and doubtless a greater glove, I believe he might nicely find yourself with extra plate appearances this 12 months, whilst we at present have Aranda with 385 projected plate appearances to 245 for Mead. The bench when Kim is again may very well be Rortvedt-Mead-Partitions-Caballero, assuming Caballero takes decently sufficient to the outfield. However there’s additionally the Chandler Simpson issue, he might nicely beat Kim to the Rays.

2:05

Avatar Jason Martinez: I’m shopping for the hype on Mead. Moved him to the projected Opening Day roster (over Eloy) as of yesterday …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rays

2:05

Darren: Christian Walker has an indirect harm and is getting an MRI. Similar harm price him a month final 12 months. He’s a 34 12 months previous energy hitter, any ideas on how lengthy he’s out and what Astros do throughout that span?

2:06

Avatar Jason Martinez: He says it’s not as dangerous (don’t imagine gamers) however indirect is a tricky one for a hitter. I’m holding off on shifting him to the projected IL as a result of they’re downplaying it. But it surely seems like he’s getting an MRI right this moment so we must always know very quickly.

Singleton will play vs RHP and it’s seemingly that both Caratini or Dezenzo will play 1B vs LHP.

2:07

Bob: Of the massive 4 OFers of the ’23 draft, who’re you at present most optimistic for over the following 2-3 years and in addition over the long run?

2:09

Avatar Jon Becker: I believe so far as 2025 is worried, I’m taking Langford of the Crews/Langford/Clark/Jenkins group — I doubt the latter two play within the majors in any respect and Langford appeared nice down the stretch whereas I might see an extended adjustment interval for Crews primarily based on his first style of MLB final 12 months. I’ll default to Eric Longenhagen’s checklist for a long-term reply; he’s acquired Crews because the third-best prospect in baseball, so I’ll say him or Langford. Huge fan of Jenkins although, too, Clark can be my fourth choose there.

2:09

David Stearns: Why is Megill listed within the bullpen? He’s both beginning or beginning the 12 months in Syracuse. I don’t see Brazoban amongst others making the crew over Kranick.

2:09

EL Chupacabra: Given the remark sections on the Mets articles this week, I’ve to ask why you might have Tylord because the lengthy man in Queens and never a rotation choice. Gotta assume he’s a greater choice than Blackburn and Canning, no?

2:12

Avatar Jason Martinez: I’ve had Canning and Blackburn within the rotation with Megill in AAA till latest accidents. Canning/Blackburn are out of choices and make $4MM+.

With that stated, I believe all 3 are going to be wanted for multi-inning stints whether or not it’s as a SP or RP. Undecided it issues as a lot who begins and who relieves, though Megill is the one one who has achieved each.

Kranick is making a case. He’s additionally able to throwing a number of innings.

Brazoban was actually good earlier than the Mets acquired him. We’ll see if he can regain his type.

2:12

Steve: Have a couple of roster selections to make do you see any of the next making the MLB roster?

Coby MayoOrelvis MartinezBryan RamosManuel RodriguezJoey Cantillo

2:14

Avatar Jon Becker: Of those 5, we’ve solely acquired Manuel Rodriguez on the Opening Day roster — he’s out of choices and pitched nice final 12 months, so he needs to be assured of a spot. Of the remaining 4 I believe Orelvis is next-likeliest, particularly if Varsho isn’t prepared, then Ramos (we now have Gallo on the projected roster filling in for Benintendi however he’s hit terribly in Spring and they won’t need to open up a 40-man spot for him), then Cantillo, then Mayo. Orioles’ place participant group is so full and Mayo isn’t doing himself any favors with how he’s carried out this Spring.

2:14

Robert: Why Reyes over Pereira for nyy?

2:17

Avatar Jason Martinez: Not an excellent signal for the Yankees after we’re debating whether or not Pablo Reyes or Dom Smith will make the crew.

I believe Pereira can be the apparent alternative — they want a RHH to DH in opposition to LHP — however the issue is that he’s recovering from TJ surgical procedure. It’s attainable that placing him on the MLB roster, even simply to DH, might decelerate his restoration. Haven’t heard if they’re contemplating that risk.

2:17

Jonathan in France: What do you assume the Mariners are going to do at 2B? I do know that ST stats aren’t terribly vital, however with the way in which that Ryan Bliss is taking part in, does he drive their hand over Dylan Moore? Thanks.

2:18

Avatar Jon Becker: Yeah, I believe that’s undoubtedly attainable, and it wouldn’t take a ton of forcing since they gave the impression to be pretty impressed by Bliss final 12 months. Moore’s versatility is such that he’d nonetheless play so much everywhere in the discipline even when he’s not the starter at anyone place.

2:18

Bob: What do you make of the primary 4 weeks of faculty ball? I really feel like Bremner and Jace L. should be dropping down boards. Is Jamie Arnold 1-1 proper now? Any phrase on how Ethan Vacation is doing?

2:20

Avatar Jason Martinez: Aside from highlights and attempting to get a really feel for who might be a prime draft choose, I don’t comply with school baseball very carefully. Method too centered on MLB/MiLB. However now that we now have NCAA stats, that would change …

NCAA leaderboards … https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/school?place=&sort=1&stats=bat&q…

2:21

Avatar Jon Becker: I used to be fairly first rate at following it once I was in school, however now I simply cram in preparation for the draft. However having these leaderboards will definitely assist even when I’m not sitting down and watching the video games!

2:21

diadem: The newest on Steer? Potential that he’s the DH early on till his shoulder improves? Or is a conventional DL stint most probably?

2:23

Avatar Jon Becker: Haven’t seen something new in a couple of days; he simply had a cortisone shot and as of March 3 he wasn’t but throwing or hitting. Even when the cortisone shot alleviated so much he simply won’t have fairly sufficient time to get again in control, even when he’s wholesome. My guess is it’ll be a minimal keep on the IL (so solely every week of the season, since IL stints may be backdated three days) if he doesn’t get again into video games quickly.

2:23

Dave T: How will the Cardinals get Nolan Gorman ample taking part in time with Arenado nonetheless on the crew?  Or perhaps they received’t??

2:26

Avatar Jason Martinez: Feels like the most important query proper now could be CF (Nootbaar, Siani, or Scott). If Nootbaar wins the job, that might imply Brendan Donovan performs loads of LF and Gorman would play 2B on most days. If not, it’s gonna be robust, though I can see them getting Gorman, Burleson, and Donovan sufficient at bats between 2 lineup spots.

2:27

Calvin: Any sense on A’s OD rotation?

2:29

Avatar Jon Becker: Severino, Sears, Springs have three spots for certain. Martín Gallegos wrote at the beginning of Spring that Bido was “nicely forward” for the fourth spot, and he hasn’t been excellent up to now, however simply 4.1 innings, so I don’t care a lot about that. That leaves one spot for Spence, Ginn, Estes, Hoglund, and perhaps Hogan Harris. Spence, Hoglund, and Harris have pitched the most effective of the three so we’ve caught with Spence all Spring contemplating he was fairly stable final 12 months.

2:30

Chisox: Wirth Berroa happening with TJ susrgery, who’s the White Sox longish-term nearer?

2:33

Avatar Jason Martinez: I believe Leasure has an excellent shot to re-establish himself because the “nearer of the longer term”. Perhaps even early 2025 with the way in which issues look.

We must always have a a lot better thought later this season as soon as this subsequent wave of beginning pitching prospects both arrives or flops. As soon as a couple of of them are formally transformed to relievers (in all probability guys like Iriarte, Eder, and many others.) they usually can principally concentrate on 2 pitches and brief stints, so much can change they usually can take off rapidly. Grant Taylor would in all probability be probably the most dominant reliever if he doesn’t progress as a starter.

2:33

drplantwrench: pushing apart the (un)chance of buying and selling Vlad Jr. do you assume one among Reid Detmers or Caden Dana plus Joswa Lugo and Nolan Schanuel is an honest framework of a commerce for the Angels and Blue Jays?

2:36

Avatar Jon Becker: Such as you stated, Guerrero Jr. will completely not be traded earlier than the beginning of the season, and doubtless not throughout it even when the Blue Jays are out of competition. Onerous to beat the worth of the QO when you’re one other crew and the Jays know that holding him round might give them one thing of an edge in free company. I believe your proposal is about proper if it’s Dana and never Detmers (far more membership management), that’s 5 years of your post-Vlad beginning first baseman and our Twenty fifth-overall prospect in Dana, plus an fascinating however faraway man in Lugo. Undoubtedly beats the Ortiz/Corridor Corbin Burnes package deal that I at all times use as a measuring stick when evaluating packages for leases, that are at all times lighter than you assume they’ll be.

2:36

Banjo, for breakfast?: Veteran NRIs preventing for roster spots is my favourite a part of Spring. Your roster projections are invaluable as I comply with who’s in and who’s out, however two questions: which of the Ins are most probably to resurrect their careers such that their subsequent deal received’t be an NRI? And which of the Outs have the most effective likelihood to assert a spot by Opening Day? (However, hey, I’d learn an entire article breaking down all of the NRIs throughout the league, too!)

2:38

Avatar Jason Martinez: Brendan Rodgers is the primary identify that involves thoughts. If he’s the on a regular basis 2B with Altuve shifting to LF, he might actually increase his worth. He’d be a free agent and solely coming into his age-29 season. He’s proficient. Change of surroundings might assist.

Full checklist of NRIs at present on a projected roster right here … https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/school?place=&sort=1&stats=bat&q…

Full checklist of NRIs with taking part in time projection right here … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/opening-day-tracker?season=2…

2:38

Avatar Jon Becker: That’s an excellent article thought, by the way in which, I believe I might need to do this for subsequent Friday!

2:39

Matt Canterino: Is there a minor league model of the 60-day IL? What do groups do with gamers on the 40-man who’ve but to debut however get main accidents? It doesn’t look like the league would drive groups so as to add them to the main league 60-day and begin their service time clicks (and pay them the MLB minimal).

2:40

Avatar Jon Becker: The minors have a seven-day IL, a 60-day IL, and a full-season IL, I imagine. If I recall appropriately on the 40-man should be placed on the MLB IL in the event that they’re injured inside the final 15 days earlier than Opening Day, which might be March 11, so Canterino might nonetheless be optioned. In the event that they want the 40-man spot, although, they might put him on the 40-man and he’d accrue MLB service and pay whereas he rehabs.

2:40

Will He or Warren’t He: With the Gil harm, will Will Warren be capable of get a glance within the NYY rotation, or is it in all probability set precisely as it’s within the present RR chart? (barring harm)

2:42

Avatar Jason Martinez: Rotation is about, barring accidents, however Warren appears to have solidified himself because the “subsequent in line”. And that in all probability hurts his probabilities of making the Opening Day roster, regardless of how good he’s pitching, since they’ll need him to proceed beginning each 5-6 days in AAA. Yankees will want him in some unspecified time in the future, although. That’s virtually assured.

2:42

Michael: For the Guardians, what’s your tackle the Opening Day 2B and who finally is the one which bridges to Bazzana?

2:44

Idiotic Failson: When (if in any respect) do you assume Bazzana performs for the ML membership this 12 months?

2:44

Avatar Jon Becker: We had Brito there for a very long time, however he’s been actually dangerous up to now in ST (I believe hitting .063 or one thing?) and on the Guardians preview section of the Successfully Wild podcast the opposite day, Zack Meisel stated he thinks it’ll be Arias. However there’ll be mixing and matching, one or each of Freeman or Schneemann will make the crew they usually can each play some second, and it’s not as if Brito has performed himself solely out of the image for this 12 months. Perhaps August for Bazzana? I do know he’s working arduous on his protection and that should come round however the bat is legit.

2:45

And so forth.: The place may one look to seek out gamers IL historical past?

2:47

Avatar Jason Martinez: We now have IL historical past going again to 2020 (I joined FanGraphs in June 2019) … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?timeframe=all&…

I imagine Baseball Prospectus has IL and harm historical past going again additional however not 100% certain on that or if it’s for subscribers solely or not.

2:47

comish4lif: Do you assume any of Sagghese, LuisAngel Acuna or Deyvison de los Santos will make their opening day rosters?

2:49

Avatar Jon Becker: Likeliest to me is Saggese (particularly with how Gorman’s hitting, he may simply be despatched to the minors once more), adopted by Acuña (stiff competitors from Baty). Deyvison is a distant third; he’s 2-for-11 with six Ks and I believe has usually been a part of the “B” group that enters video games later.

2:50

Insert Witty Title Right here: Revisiting the commerce from 2019. Who would you somewhat have, Cristopher Sanchez or Curtis Mead?

2:51

Avatar Jason Martinez: Sanchez. He’s already near best-case state of affairs and Mead shouldn’t be even a longtime massive leaguer but. Will probably be fascinating to see if Mead can begin night issues out this 12 months.

2:51

Avatar Jon Becker: Sánchez is as much as 99 this spring after bulking up within the offseason, I believe he’s gonna have a giant 12 months.

2:52

Simple E: Is Bradford firmly within the rotation for the Rangers at this level?

2:53

Avatar Jon Becker: Nope, although he’s not doing something to take himself out of the operating, it’s simply that Leiter has been so spectacular. I believe these are the 2 actual contenders for the final spot after Eovaldi, Grey, Mahle, deGrom (who will formally be the SP5 to present him extra days off), Rocker’s had two tough outings and Dunning is extra of a swingman now.

2:53

John B: How do you see the Giants fifth starter competitors shaking out. Harrison was the favourite coming into camp however Roupp is making a robust push and Birdsong is throwing 98.

2:56

Avatar Jason Martinez: Harrison got here into camp with a slight edge, for my part, and he’s had one good begin and one dangerous begin up to now. That shouldn’t put him behind the others so early in camp, however I believe the inconsistency is what’s regarding for the Giants. Ending with a couple of good outings in a row is vital. However it would even be one thing to observe as soon as the common seasons begins. Looks as if it’s solely a matter of time earlier than Roupp or Birdsong takes the job from him.

2:56

Matt Canterino: I’m already on the 40-man, so if I get optioned and placed on the minor league 60-day IL, do the Twins get a 40-man spot again? Thanks!

2:58

Avatar Jon Becker: Nope, solely being on the MLB 60-day IL takes you off the 40-man, however being on the MiLB 60-day IL means you don’t rely in opposition to reserve limits; groups can solely have 165 gamers lively or on the 7-day IL for home groups.

2:58

Ben: Upon return, the place do you assume Neto slots into the Angels lineup?

3:00

Avatar Jason Martinez: He completed final season because the No. 2 batter and that’s the place I had him penciled in earlier within the offseason. I believe he’ll be there vs LHP as soon as he’s wholesome and doubtless someplace within the 5-7 vary vs RHP with an opportunity to maneuver up. Looks as if Trout, Ward, Soler will seemingly be 1, 3, 4 so having a lefty/switch-hitter within the 2 spot (Rengifo, Moncada, Schanuel) makes probably the most sense vs RHP.

3:01

Jordan: Do you assume the Butler extension is an inexpensive comp for Oneil Cruz? Or at the very least a place to begin?

3:03

Avatar Jon Becker: Nearer to a place to begin than a comp. Butler had 5 years to go earlier than free company; Oneil solely has 4, so on a seven-year deal you’d should bump up the worth fairly considerably because you’d be shopping for out three FA years as an alternative of two. Perhaps one thing like 7/84 would get it achieved.

3:03

George: Shopping for Cole Henry as rapid bullpen depth in DC?

3:05

Avatar Jason Martinez: Sure I’m. Like I discussed earlier regarding the White Sox younger pitching, generally all of it simply comes collectively as soon as a pitcher is advised “you at the moment are formally a reduction pitcher”. Since he’s up to now down the SP depth chart, it was time to do this. Appears to be like good up to now.

3:05

Cromulent: I get why Winker can be penciled in because the Mets DH, however given the restricted upside, shouldn’t they at the very least take into account giving Brett Baty a shot? Acknowledging that his MLB numbers aren’t nice, however clearly the man has nothing left to show within the minors. If they will’t give him 150-200 AB audition they need to in all probability simply deal him away, no?

3:07

Avatar Jon Becker: I disagree on Winker having restricted upside; I do know his Mets tenure wasn’t nice however he was actually, actually good with the Nationals earlier than the commerce. And also you don’t give a man $7.5M solely to take his beginning spot away from him earlier than the season even begins. However you’re proper that there’s not apparent taking part in time for Baty, although there wasn’t for Vientos as soon as the Mets signed JDM both, and that labored out effective. If Baty makes probably the most of no matter alternatives he will get — he hasn’t, but — then they’ll discover taking part in time for him.

3:07

Matt: Does Alan Roden have an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster with the Jays?

3:08

Avatar Jason Martinez: Sure, particularly if Varsho begins on the IL. There’s an opportunity Varsho is on the Opening Day roster however relegated to DH. In that case, Loperfido or Lukes or Clase are higher suits as a result of they will play CF.

However as soon as Varsho is wholesome and taking part in CF on a regular basis, Roden may be an ideal slot in a nook OF spot or DH. Nearly everybody in that lineup apart from Vlad Jr. and Kirk are low OBP guys and that seems to be Roden’s greatest ability.

3:09

Wheelhouse: Do you anticipate the yankees to herald a 3B within the mid-price vary by way of commerce? I’ve seen reporting that they’re not shutting the door on buying and selling Stroman even with Gil’s harm, and if they will shed ~half of his wage then there’s an honest variety of starting-caliber 3B across the league making a wage within the $8-12M vary. DBacks need to clear Suarez and play Lawlar?

3:12

Avatar Jon Becker: I don’t ever anticipate any trades this deep into Spring Coaching, although that doesn’t imply one received’t occur. Suárez particularly would shock me since Lawlar missed loads of time final 12 months they usually wouldn’t have a lot insurance coverage behind him if he’s harm once more or struggles. However assuming Arenado is off the desk, it’s fairly slim pickings in any other case. Groups hardly ever do that, however perhaps they pounce on a Rule 5 man who doesn’t make a crew (the Rule 5 duty would switch to the Yankees)? Gage Workman has had a pleasant Spring and won’t make the home Opening Day roster for the Cubs.

3:12

RAGBRAI: What sort of taking part in time do you see Lux getting? Stats?

3:14

Avatar Jason Martinez: I’ve him with 490 PA, which is mainly a strong-side platoon and perhaps a bit extra. I additionally assume he’ll get an opportunity to show he can hit LHP and get nearer to 550-600 PA … https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?place=ALL&teamid=18

Depth Charts projection (Steamer + ZIPS) has him proper on the league common … 100 wRC+, .733 OPS, 11 HR, 22 2B, 6 SB. However not an extended observe file due to accidents so projection methods may very well be underestimating him.

3:14

Matt B.: How a lot of Quero and Teel will we see on the south aspect this 12 months?

3:15

Avatar Jon Becker: Quite a bit, although I wouldn’t anticipate both to make the  Opening Day roster. Jason has them projected with the second- and third-most PAs for Sox catchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?place=ALL&teamid=4

3:16

Avatar Jason Martinez: In the event that they’re not each on the roster for at the very least your complete 2nd half, will probably be an enormous disappointment. Is smart to seek out out if Korey Lee is healthier than he’s proven up to now and Thaiss is a superbly good stop-gap. But it surely’s time to look forward to 2026 and people guys are elite prospects who’re close-to-MLB-ready.

3:16

Pirates: Who’s going to be backup c?

3:19

Avatar Jason Martinez: Out of 780 roster spots, this may be probably the most troublesome one for me to determine.

Bart is clearly the starter.

Endy is getting back from harm so it didn’t make sense to have him on the bench until he was additionally going to play 1B and get some DH at-bats. No indication that can occur, although.

Davis can be not a really perfect backup as a result of he needs to be taking part in on a regular basis in AAA.

That leaves Jason Delay, who I had because the backup for many of the offseason earlier than shifting to Endy (perhaps a month in the past). I believe he’s the secure choose. That might enable Endy/Davis to play principally on a regular basis in AAA to start the season.

3:20

Avatar Jason Martinez: That may do it for right this moment. Thanks for becoming a member of us. Again subsequent Friday on the identical time. Have a fantastic weekend!

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