We at the moment are deep into the season, as groups have performed greater than 60% of their video games. With the All-Star break over, this offers us time to go searching the NBA and consider how the Celtics’ contenders are doing.
We’ll rank the 5 most harmful groups for the championship based mostly on the Celtics’ strengths and weaknesses. For every contender, we’ll give a stage of confidence that the Celtics can beat this crew in seven video games, from 0 to 100.
#1 – Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets won’t be the perfect crew out of those 5, however they’re the perfect outfitted to beat the champs. The Celtics haven’t overwhelmed the Nuggets with Nikola Jokic taking part in since November 2022 – and he’s the principle motive the Celtics might be scared to face Denver within the Finals. Jayson Tatum may agree with that.
This offseason, Tatum mentioned that he knew they might win the title as soon as the Nuggets misplaced to the Wolves – main us to assume the Celtics are conscious that the Nuggets are a risk for a championship run. And the rationale for that’s the three-time MVP. Jokic could be the final word weapon to dismantle the Celtics’ protection. The Celtics can’t match him up with Kristaps Porzingis. The Latvian’s dimension and rim safety aren’t sufficient to sluggish him down.
Often, the Celtics would assign Jayson Tatum or Jrue Vacation to the opponent’s middle. This method permits Porzingis to roam the paint, taking part in the protection position whereas JT or Jrue decelerate the opponent’s middle. Nonetheless, most often, the opponent’s middle doesn’t have the identical scoring capacity as Nikola Jokic. The Serbian large man could be the perfect scorer within the NBA. Amongst gamers with a famous person utilization fee, no person comes near his effectivity (66% True Capturing).
Like the remainder of the league, the Celtics don’t have a solution for the Joker. What about the remainder of the crew? Properly, regardless of shedding an essential piece in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver discovered a technique to stay top-of-the-line groups within the league. They’re the perfect crew at attending to the rim, because of Jokic’s gravity and their slicing recreation. The Celtics’ off-ball protection has been problematic this season, and a collection in opposition to the Denver Nuggets might be very difficult.
On the opposite facet, the Denver Nuggets have weaknesses. Their two largest weaknesses are transition protection and rim safety – which aren’t the Celtics’ largest strengths. Joe Mazzulla’s crew doesn’t put numerous stress on the rim and isn’t producing numerous transition alternatives. After all, they may adapt, enhance their drive quantity, and attempt to pressure turnovers as a lot as doable.
Nonetheless, based mostly on the Denver Nuggets’ strengths and weaknesses, I really feel that they’re the Celtics’ largest risk. If a collection had been to start out immediately, my stage of confidence within the Celtics in seven in opposition to the Nuggets is at 49%.
#2 – Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder
The younger guys from Oklahoma are taking the league by storm with top-of-the-line common seasons of all time. The defensive efficiency from the Thunder this yr is unimaginable. They’ve the second-best relative defensive ranking of all time – beating the legendary 2008 Celtics, for instance. Their protection generates so many turnovers and forces opponents to take inefficient photographs.
With their aggressive method, they’ve discovered a technique to create turnovers each 5 possessions and are taking away drives and nook photographs. This was completed with Chet Holmgren lacking numerous video games and Isaiah Hartenstein beginning the season on the bench. Regardless of lacking their defensive anchor, they maintained an elite stage. However with both Isaiah or Chet on the ground, they attain a wholly completely different stage.
Whereas Chet can play the same position to Porzingis in protection, Isaiah Hartenstein can swap. With these two facilities, they’ll adapt to no matter offensive scheme their opponents are taking part in. This leads me to assume they’re outfitted to decelerate the Celtics’ offense. Of their first matchup earlier this season, Isaiah Hartenstein was in a position to swap onto Jayson Tatum, and he is likely one of the solely facilities on the planet who can sluggish him down with the ball in his arms.
But, whereas the Thunder’s protection is spectacular, they’ve an apparent offensive downside: their lack of spacing. As most of us anticipated, I used to be satisfied they might transfer to commerce for Cam Johnson and add a capturing risk who can play protection to their roster – however they didn’t. With Lu Dort or Alex Caruso on the courtroom, the Thunder are giving the Celtics a simple technique to maintain Porzingis close to the rim – this wouldn’t be doable with Cam Johnson. In the event that they go along with Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace or Aaron Wiggins, they’re giving the Celtics a simple goal on offense.
As a lot because the Thunder might decelerate the Celtics’ offense, I don’t purchase into their offensive firepower overwhelming the inexperienced military’s protection. As of proper now, my stage of confidence within the Celtics in seven in opposition to the Thunder is at 60%.
#3 – Cleveland Cavaliers
It wasn’t anticipated earlier than the season began, however the Cleveland Cavaliers seem like the largest risk to the Celtics within the East. The same old rivals through the Jayson & Jaylen period appear a step behind. The 76ers are out of practice, the Bucks are too common, and the Warmth had been pressured to commerce Jimmy Butler to California. Whereas the standard Celtics’ nemeses are declining, a brand new enemy rises: the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Celtics and Cavaliers met within the playoffs final yr, and earlier than Donovan Mitchell went down, the Cavaliers seemed like a legit rival. Regardless of taking part in with out Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers had been in a position to put stress on the Celtics because of Donovan Mitchell’s driving recreation and playmaking.
As CelticsBlog’s Mike Shearer famous, the Celtics wrestle to include fast guards who can pull up and drive. With Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, the Cavs have two gamers with such expertise.
Nonetheless, the Cavaliers generally lack spacing once they play with their two large males, making it simpler to include their backcourt. They often go to a single-big lineup, and once they do, Joe Mazzulla counters with a double-big lineup and wins the possession battle. With Kornet and Horford, for instance, the Celtics can dominate on the boards when the Cavaliers determine to go small. When the Cavaliers go large, the Celtics can stretch the ground as a lot as doable with Porzingis.
The Celtics are outfitted to adapt based mostly on the Cavaliers’ recreation plan, even with De’Andre Hunter’s arrival. Sure, the previous Hawk brings extra depth on the wing, however this isn’t the place the Cavaliers wrestle in opposition to the Celtics. Whereas going through Boston, Cleveland struggled due to their backcourt protection. The Celtics love to choose a goal and assault Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland.
Due to that backcourt difficulty, my stage of confidence within the Celtics in seven in opposition to the Cavaliers is at 66%.
#4 – Los Angeles Clippers
Sure, the Clippers. The one motive they aren’t larger is that I nonetheless have a tough time trusting Kawhi Leonard’s physique. Nonetheless, they really feel like one of many largest threats to the Celtics—if they’ll keep wholesome. Regardless of shedding Paul George, the Clippers remained top-of-the-line groups within the West. Like in Moneyball, they changed PG13 within the mixture with Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and by giving extra duties to Norman Powell.
James Harden additionally turned again the clock and elevated his quantity following Paul George’s departure. He has misplaced a few of his burst, however his passing and playmaking stay elite. In the course of all that, Clippers followers additionally witnessed Ivica Zubac’s All-Protection marketing campaign. The large man has been one of the—if not essentially the most—essential gamers for the Clippers. With out him, the protection collapses, and the offense struggles to operate with out his screens and Harden’s playmaking.
That’s the reason they had been aggressive on the commerce market this winter. They wanted a backup for Zubac to maintain taking part in drop protection—however with Ben Simmons, they’ll additionally rework right into a switch-everything monster. Add to that Bogdan Bogdanovic’s playmaking off the bench, and you’ve got one of many deepest groups within the West. They’ll play numerous defensive and offensive kinds whereas having two of the perfect isolation gamers within the league.
Within the playoffs, the power to play two completely different kinds at a excessive stage whereas having elite isolation scorers is likely one of the greatest property a crew can have. Nonetheless, they may face spacing points, and the isolation-heavy method won’t work on a regular basis. Additionally, the deeper they go within the playoffs, the better it will likely be for opponents to take advantage of their getting older legs. Due to that, my stage of confidence within the Celtics beating the Clippers in seven is at 70%.
#5 – New York Knicks
Whereas all of the groups talked about earlier than may need spacing points, that received’t be the case with the New York Knicks. Round Karl-Anthony Cities, Tom Thibodeau has constructed a powerful offense with well-timed cuts and numerous pick-and-roll actions. Jalen Brunson is unstoppable one-on-one, and his unimaginable scoring capacity forces assist, which creates even higher spacing.
Nonetheless, this high-powered offense comes at a value—a defensive one. With KAT at middle, the Knicks are unable to include the Celtics’ offense. They hope Mitchell Robinson will probably be their savior on that finish, however I doubt he will probably be again and wholesome sufficient to compensate for his or her defensive struggles. Furthermore, in the event that they play Robinson, their spacing disappears.
Regardless of an elite offense, the Knicks’ defensive shortcomings make me 99% assured the Celtics would beat them in seven.
The opposite potential threats would have been Dallas with Luka Dončić or the Warriors if they’d higher spacing round Jimmy and Curry.
What about you? Who do you assume might beat the Celtics in seven as of proper now?
