The Cubs have made plenty of strikes to push in in the direction of a return to the postseason in 2025 after lacking the playoffs in 5 of the final six seasons and never profitable a playoff recreation for the reason that membership’s NLCS loss to the Dodgers again in 2017. After respectable showings the previous two seasons, each of which noticed the membership end with 83 wins, the Cubs have gotten extra aggressive of their efforts to enhance. Whereas the additions of Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea to the rotation combine, Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier to the bullpen, in addition to Jon Berti and Carson Kelly to the bench are all roughly par-for-the-course strikes for the Cubs lately, they made a significant splash by swinging a commerce with the Astros for Kyle Tucker.
The acquisition price was steep, as they gave up high third base prospect Cam Smith in addition to All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes and younger right-hander Hayden Wesneski, however the acquisition of Tucker was a significant improve for the lineup relative to Cody Bellinger and figures to offer the Cubs with an influence star who can anchor their lineup. Tucker’s slated to develop into a free agent after the 2025 season, nonetheless, and whereas children Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara are ready within the wings at Triple-A as potential replacements for Tucker in 2026 it might be an extremely tall order to count on both teen to develop into the type of to participant Tucker has original himself into.
With the membership having already given up substantial property to simply land one yr of Tucker, the minds of many followers instantly go to an extension. It’s removed from unusual for star gamers traded simply earlier than their last yr of group management to promptly prolong their stick with that new membership, with Francisco Lindor, Paul Goldschmidt, and Mookie Betts among the many most notable star place gamers to work out long-term extensions shortly after being traded. With that being stated, it doesn’t at all times work out that method because the Yankees came upon once they gave up a large haul for one yr of Juan Soto’s providers final winter solely to observe him depart in free company again in December.
Soto’s record-shattering $765MM deal gained’t be a good remotely reasonable goal for Tucker, who will crucially head into free company three years older than this offseason’s star free agent. Even so, that large contract figures to boost the bar a minimum of considerably on the value tag for Tucker’s providers. In spite of everything, each lefty-swinging proper fielders are among the many most dear outfielders within the recreation over the previous few years. Tucker’s 19.1 fWAR for the reason that begin of the 2021 season trails Soto’s 24.6 determine, however that’s with Tucker having missed half of the 2024 marketing campaign as a result of a shin harm. Tucker lacks Soto’s generational plate self-discipline, however the former’s .280/.362/.527 slash line is in a minimum of the identical ballpark as Soto’s .279/.423/.520 slash line.
As beforehand talked about, Soto’s youth and stronger general offensive contributions imply his deal will vastly eclipse Tucker’s. Even so, it’s wholly affordable to suppose that Tucker may exceed the $330MM assure Bryce Harper landed with the Phillies previous to the 2019 season and even Aaron Choose’s $360MM assure from the 2022-23 offseason. With main market golf equipment just like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Giants all poised to have a gap within the outfield subsequent winter, it’s not arduous to think about the bidding for Tucker’s providers surpassing $350MM and even reaching $400MM as long as he’s wholesome and as productive as anticipated this yr. Signing a participant to that type of deal can be utterly unprecedented for the Cubs, who’ve by no means signed a participant for greater than the $184MM deal they gave to Jason Heyward previous to the 2016 season, and it appears unlikely {that a} Tucker extension would come at a lot of a reduction.
Whereas doubling the franchise’s file contract can be a daring transfer, its one the Cubs ought to have the ability to afford. Regardless of enjoying in one of many league’s largest markets, Chicago has tended to deal with the primary luxurious tax threshold as one thing of a tough cap lately. That first threshold will sit at $244MM in 2026, when RosterResource tasks the membership to have simply $136MM in assured contracts on the roster. That’s earlier than seemingly raises for arbitration-eligible gamers like Justin Steele and a call on Shota Imanaga’s deal that appears more likely to elevate the southpaw’s wage, however there ought to a minimum of theoretically be loads of room within the price range for a Tucker extension even after contemplating these components ought to the Cubs want to work one out.
There’s loads of causes to marvel if the Cubs would actually have the urge for food to signal Tucker to an enormous contract, nonetheless. As famous by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, the Cubs seem like appearing fairly cautiously on the subject of assured contracts that stretch past the expiration of the present collective bargaining settlement in 2026. In the intervening time, Imanaga and Dansby Swanson are the one two gamers the membership has assured cash to past the 2026 marketing campaign. Even that ignores the chance that Imanaga is allowed to decide out of his deal after the 2025 and ’26 seasons, which is able to rely on whether or not or not the Cubs are prepared to choose up a sequence of membership choices that might prolong his stick with the membership by means of the tip of the 2028 marketing campaign.
One different potential wrinkle within the scenario is Chicago’s pursuit of Tucker’s longtime teammate Alex Bregman. The Cubs have emerged as certainly one of Bregman’s suitors over the course of the previous month, and whereas they’re usually considered as solely all for including Bregman on a shorter-term deal (as was the case with their pursuit of Bellinger final winter), it’s a minimum of doable that the membership signing Bregman to a deal that ensures upwards of $30MM yearly may depart them bored with including one other high-dollar contract just like the one Tucker figures to command.
What do MLBTR readers take into consideration the scenario? Will the Cubs and Tucker work out an extension earlier than he reaches free company in November? Or will Tucker comply with within the footsteps of Soto and hit the open market? Have your say within the ballot under:
