Free Agent Profile: Jakob Junis

Spring coaching is ramping up this week however the offseason isn’t achieved. Seven of MLBTR’s Prime 50 Free Brokers stay unsigned, together with one huge fish in Alex Bregman, in addition to loads of mid-rotation starters.

Jakob Junis is one pitcher we thought of for the listing however who simply missed the lower. The righty hasn’t appeared in any rumors of notice this winter. MLBTR hasn’t written about him since he declined his finish of a mutual choice and have become a free agent initially of November.

The righty was a free agent final winter as effectively and agreed to a take care of the Brewers nearly precisely one yr in the past. Stories emerged on February 5 of 2024 that he would signal a one-year take care of Milwaukee, a $7MM assure.

It took a little bit of time for his season to get momentum. He made one look in early April earlier than touchdown on the injured listing because of a proper shoulder impingement. His return was delayed by a scary fluke incident. He was doing a little on-field jogging throughout batting observe earlier than a sport when he was struck by an errant ball. He didn’t come off the IL till late June.

After coming off the IL, he pitched multi-inning reduction outings for the Brewers. However simply over a month after being reinstated, he was flipped to the Reds as a part of the deadline deal which despatched Frankie Montas to Milwaukee. He pitched out of the Cincinnati bullpen for some time however moved to the rotation down the stretch as that membership handled numerous accidents and was enjoying out the string on the season.

Regardless of the delayed ramp-up and the midseason change of surroundings, Junis nonetheless managed to log some good numbers on the entire. He made 24 appearances, together with six begins, throwing 67 innings. He allowed simply 2.69 earned runs per 9 frames. He obtained a little bit of assist from a .224 batting common on balls in play and a 77.9% strand price, however his 3.69 FIP and three.72 SIERA counsel he nonetheless would have been efficient even with impartial fortune from the baseball gods. His 20.2% strikeout price was down a bit from the yr prior however he additionally dropped his stroll price all the way in which to a miniscule 3.2%.

That’s now 4 straight seasons of fairly respectable manufacturing from Junis. Over the 2021 to 2024 campaigns, he made 33 begins and 70 reduction appearances. In that point, he posted a 3.99 ERA, 22.6% strikeout price and 5.2% stroll price. Management is clearly a power, as he’s by no means completed a season with a stroll price larger than 7.5%. His strikeout charges have been pretty common, however he has sometimes discovered an additional gear in that division. He punched out 24.4% of opponents in 2021 and 26.2% in 2023, although he was down nearer to twenty% in 2022 and 2024.

By way of his arsenal, his four-seamer and sinker averaged round 92 miles per hour final yr, although he additionally threw a slider, changeup and cutter. The slider has been his most vital weapon, as he has thrown that greater than some other pitch in every of the final 5 seasons. The Stuff+ metric has given the pitch a grade round 110 fairly persistently for the previous 5 years and he averaged 13.4 inches of horizontal break on it in 2024, per Statcast, placing it eleventh amongst sliders from certified pitchers final yr in that division. Hitters typically put up batting averages across the Mendoza line towards it, together with a slash of .183/.230/.346 final yr.

Junis doesn’t have notable issues in his splits. For granted-hander, lefties have hit him higher, however not drastically so. He has allowed a line of .286/.340/.473 with out the platoon benefit in his profession, solely a bit higher than his .248/.300/.430 line allowed to righties.

He’s additionally able to placing up respectable numbers from each the rotation or the bullpen. As a starter over the previous 4 years, he has a 3.76 ERA, 22.4% strikeout price and 5.1% stroll price. As a reliever in that span, he has a 4.22 ERA that appears inflated by a .332 BABIP, as his 22.8% strikeout price and 5.3% stroll price are similar to his rotation work.

Based mostly on the quiet winter, it’s potential that Junis will wind up with an identical deal to the $7MM assure he obtained final winter. Previously month or so, Michael Lorenzen, Martín Pérez and Colin Rea have signed one-year offers in that vary, with Lorenzen getting $7MM and the opposite two getting $5MM. Listed here are there numbers for these guys over the previous two years, with that vary chosen as a result of Rea was pitching in Japan in 2022:

Junis: 153 innings, 3.35 ERA, 23.7% strikeout price, 4.7% stroll price
Lorenzen: 283 1/3 innings, 3.78 ERA, 17.9% strikeout price, 9.2% stroll price
Rea: 292 1/3 innings, 4.40 ERA, 19.9% strikeout price, 6.6% stroll price
Perez: 276 2/3 innings, 4.49 ERA,  16.7% strikeout price, 8.2% stroll price

Junis has a decrease innings tally than everybody in that group, due partially to his injured listing stint in 2024 and since the Giants principally used him out of the bullpen in 2023. However on a price foundation, he’s been clearly a lower above these latest back-end starters/swing guys which have signed recently. Loads of golf equipment nonetheless want pitching assist and accidents will certainly be found within the coming weeks as pitchers ramp up in camp. If some membership goes out on the lookout for late-winter bargains, Junis looks as if candidate.