This week’s mailbag will get into Alex Bregman’s attainable touchdown spots, Boston’s failure so as to add a right-handed bat, potential contracts for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker, Jarred Kelenic’s commerce worth, the Tigers’ comparatively quiet offseason, the Marlins’ rebuild, and way more.
Mark asks:
Logically, which staff makes essentially the most sense to signal Alex Bregman? I see awkward matches in HOU and BOS. And whereas TOR has a logical match roster-wise, DET simply makes essentially the most sense to me. A necessity for veteran management on a younger staff, want for a 3B, and room on their payroll. I am not a DET fan, however an STL fan who desires to discover a staff for Nolan Arenado, which I doubt occurs till Bregman indicators! Thanks.
Troy asks:
Massive Astros fan right here, what’s your feeling about the place Bregman goes? I would like to have him again with the staff however to me it is probably not a very good match anymore with the opposite strikes which have already been made, plus with a win now staff similar to this I would slightly them take the cash they saved buying and selling Pressly and get a real outfielder.
On Tuesday, Astros GM Dana Brown mentioned, “I’d largely say it’s all inside conversations as to what we want to do by way of Bregman.” Requested a number of days earlier whether or not the door is shut, Brown hesitated and replied, “I’d say it is cracked.” At one other level he mentioned it is a “lengthy shot.”
On Monday, Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Bregman “maintains curiosity from 5 groups and isn’t any nearer to a call now than earlier than Pressly’s departure.” They added, “All winter, sources have indicated Astros proprietor Jim Crane is unwilling to pay the tax for a second consecutive season.” Estimates have the Astros’ CBT payroll at $4.86MM shy of the primary tax threshold, or $4.68MM brief.
Crucially, the Athletic reporters mentioned the Astros’ six-year, $156MM supply to Bregman “stays on the desk.” If that is true, then Crane completely is keen to go over the tax threshold once more, since Bregman might theoretically simply settle for their supply proper now.
It appears honest to guess that the Astros won’t be growing their supply a lot if in any respect. In our early November contract predictions, we gave Bregman the Kris Bryant contract: seven years, $182MM. Bryant, nonetheless, was about 9 months youthful than Bregman will probably be on Opening Day this 12 months. Plus, Bryant needed to be a part of a poorly-run, sometimes non-competitive staff to get his most contract.
I do not see why Scott Boras would not simply settle for the Astros’ supply. It is true: if he finds Bregman an even bigger supply elsewhere, he wins. I am undecided Bregman can be happier; I do not know what is going on on in his head. However accepting $156MM to remain in Houston would hardly be a disappointment, and it’d nonetheless be extra money than Matt Chapman acquired on his latest extension.
Dana Brown might need an ideal poker face, however I noticed nothing to point he is bluffing and a deal is true across the nook. Alternatively, if that Astros’ supply is certainly on the desk, one phrase from Bregman and the deal could possibly be achieved.
It is true, the match is mildly awkward now that the Astros have Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes. However as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has mentioned, it is actually not loopy to take one of many recreation’s worst defensive second basemen in Altuve and stick him in left area to make the items match. Plus, it would not be shocking to see Yordan Alvarez miss a month or age begin to meet up with Walker (34 in March) or Altuve (35 in Might). The chances that considered one of these guys will get harm are fairly robust.
So I do nonetheless just like the Astros as the very best match for Bregman, however let’s take a look at the opposite suitors.
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