The Blue Jays Finally Get a Free Agent Slugger To Say Yes

The Toronto Blue Jays have lastly signed a free agent slugger, agreeing to a five-year, $92.5 million cope with outfielder Anthony Santander on Monday afternoon. A former Rule 5 pick of Cleveland, Santander has spent his entire main league profession with the Baltimore Orioles. He’s amassed 9.6 WAR, 155 dwelling runs, and a 113 wRC+ in 2,830 plate appearances since his 2017 debut, however these numbers are additionally dragged down a bit by the very fact it took him a number of years to essentially get going as a hitter. Because the begin of 2022, his age-27 season, he’s been value 8.3 WAR and posted a a lot sunnier 124 wRC+. This previous yr was one of the best full season of his profession to this point; he slashed .235/.308/.506 and set profession highs with 44 homers, a 129 wRC+, and three.3 WAR en path to incomes his first All-Star choice and Silver Slugger award.

Anthony Santander and Blue Jays are in settlement pending bodily, sources say. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 20, 2025

Santander’s deal features a membership possibility for 2030 and an opt-out after the 2027 season, in keeping with a number of reviews. The membership possibility is a conditional one; if Santander chooses to choose out, Toronto can void his determination as long as it tacks on the sixth yr, which might convey the full worth of the contract to $110 million. The choices right here don’t change the calculus of the deal all that a lot. Contemplating Santander is already 30 and doesn’t provide rather more than his energy, he in all probability gained’t threat the safety of his contract until his manufacturing with the Jays exceeds what he did with the Orioles — and even then, he may fairly keep put. Equally, the Jays in all probability gained’t train their possibility for the sixth yr until he continues to be a viable middle-of-the-order slugger into this mid-30s.

Aside from crushing homers, Santander doesn’t have an thrilling set of abilities, however he’s additionally higher than your typical one-dimensional slugger. His protection isn’t good, however he isn’t a catastrophe within the outfield. He will get probably the most out of his energy as a result of he doesn’t pound pitches into the bottom, and his capability to make contact is healthier than his low on-base share would counsel. He’s a swap hitter who is sweet towards pitchers of each handedness; he has a profession 116 wRC+ towards lefties and a 111 wRC+ vs. righties. He additionally doesn’t wrestle towards any explicit pitch sort rather more than others. Altogether, he’s actually not as harmful on the plate as among the sport’s extra full energy hitters, however he doesn’t have an apparent weak point, and opposing groups can’t exploit him with particular matchups.

Santander heads to Toronto at a time when the franchise is a bit on the crossroads. The Blue Jays missed the playoffs final season, and though they’ve made the postseason in three of the previous 5 years, they had been swept out of the Wild Card spherical every time. Now, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette each set to succeed in free company after this season, Toronto is pushing arduous to construct up its roster for what may very well be its ultimate run with the 2 stars. Thus far, although, the Jays have fallen brief of their makes an attempt to reel in marquee free brokers. Certain, these are efforts of the true type, not the stabs at midnight that groups make sometimes — such because the insultingly low deal the White Sox provided Manny Machado in early 2019. Alas, in contrast to second graders studying spelling and math, there are not any factors for attempting in baseball.

Understanding this, Santander’s addition is actually a disappointment for Toronto followers, particularly contemplating the opposite free brokers the group focused however didn’t signal these previous two offseasons, most notably Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. However it might be improper to say Santander is nothing greater than a big-ish title comfort prize. As I discussed above, he’s a succesful energy hitter with a reasonably excessive ground.

Whereas it’s too early to say precisely how the Jays will use him defensively, my preliminary expectation is that Santander will see time at each designated hitter and in proper subject fairly than enjoying both position completely. George Springer is penciled in as Toronto’s beginning proper fielder, and he’s nonetheless in all probability a greater defender than Santander. That mentioned, Springer is now 35 and has handled accidents and a few age-related decline over the previous few seasons. With Santander round, the Jays can provide Springer some DH days with out having to take some thump from their lineup; as an alternative, two gamers will merely swap positions. The Jays might additionally play both Santander or Springer in left subject, with the opposite one in proper. The protection would in all probability endure a bit with each of them on the corners, however this may enable for Will Wagner to be Toronto’s major DH. And there’s additionally the likelihood that the Blue Jays add one other bat. They’ve been linked to Pete Alonso, and in the event that they signal him, he would in all probability be their on a regular basis DH until they determined to start out Guerrero at third. We’ll have a greater thought what their lineup will appear like in two months.

Let’s run the ZiPS projections for Santander.

ZiPS is fairly lukewarm on this signing, suggesting Santander is value 5 years at $70 million. There are apparent the explanation why ZiPS is a bit decrease on Santander: Much less-than-elite sluggers who’re kind of one dimensional have a tendency to say no sharply within the early 30s. Nevertheless, that doesn’t imply this can be a dangerous deal. Toronto wanted one other productive bat now, and that’s precisely what Santander must be in 2025. The Blue Jays gained solely 74 video games final yr, however that win whole was extra probably an underperformance fairly than a mirrored image of their true expertise, so we shouldn’t use that as a baseline expectation to challenge what they’ll do within the upcoming season. ZiPS and Steamer each view Toronto as a center class workforce, not a basement dweller. Earlier than signing Santander, ZiPS projected the Blue Jays to complete with a win whole within the mid-80s, and his addition ought to elevate their ground by about 1.5–2.0 wins.

By all public accounts – and I’ve actually heard nothing completely different – the Orioles weren’t severe gamers for Santander. From a baseball standpoint, it’s comprehensible why they refrained, given their outfield choices and stable offensive depth. For this Gen X Orioles fan a minimum of, what makes me the saddest is that Santander signed with Toronto. Throughout my youth, the Blue Jays had been arguably Baltimore’s largest divisional rival, not the Pink Sox or the Yankees. The Jays took all of the enjoyable out of the 1989 “Why Not?” season in Baltimore, and I’m nonetheless form of irritated, greater than 30 years later, that Blue Jays then-manager Cito Gaston didn’t use Mike Mussina within the 1993 All-Star Sport in Baltimore. I used to be at that sport, and I used to be one of many followers close to the bullpen booing as loudly as I might.

Except for making 15-year-old Dan very offended – which groups don’t care about and which has no impact on the playoff race — there’s not a lot to dislike concerning the Santander signing. He makes Toronto a greater workforce, and that ought to make the AL East much more fascinating. Even so, the Blue Jays shouldn’t cease with Santander. One other few additions would go a great distance towards cementing Toronto’s standing as a respectable Wild Card contender.