Celtics’ double big experiment: is it working?

For those who’ve been watching the Boston Celtics lots this season – or studying CelticsBlog – you could have observed that Joe Mazzulla and his teaching workers have elevated their utilization of the double massive lineup idea. In keeping with Cleansing The Glass, the Celtics have performed 1,255 possessions with two massive males on the ground and a couple of,622 with just one. Primarily, the Celtics spend about one-third of their time with two bigs.

After they play with one massive, Al Horford has been the lone massive man for 828 possessions, Luke Kornet for 680, Kristaps Porzingis for 588, and Neemias Queta for 526. The rotation is sort of combined resulting from accidents, relaxation wanted for Horford, and ranging matchups. The double massive lineup additionally includes varied combos, however more often than not (985 possessions), Horford is the second massive.

Why does it matter?

Now that we all know the Celtics are alternating between double and single massive lineups – and that the majority double massive lineups characteristic Horford because the second massive man – we have to study the numbers to grasp how every method has labored this season. To evaluate the influence of those tactical selections, we’ll analyze spacing, rim safety, and the possession battle. These are key elements of contemporary basketball, and the variety of massive males on the ground instantly influences all three.

Extra measurement theoretically improves rim safety as a result of it permits for an enormous man to remain close to the rim as a security. Rebounding additionally tends to enhance with measurement, serving to win the possession battle. Moreover, measurement can crowd the paint and generate extra turnovers.

Nevertheless, extra measurement can shrink spacing. It’s uncommon to have massive males who’re revered threats past the three-point line. Thus, the extra massive males on the ground, the trickier it turns into to keep up optimum spacing for driving lanes.

This was one cause Brad Stevens and his workers traded for Kristaps Porzingis final summer time. With Porzingis or Horford because the lone massive, the spacing is much better than with two bigs on the court docket. When Horford performs with Porzingis, defenses have a tendency to go away Horford open from three, making his capturing extra impactful when he’s the lone massive man.

A single-big lineup additionally provides defensive flexibility. With Porzingis because the lone massive, the Celtics can swap screens whereas retaining him near the rim or play drop protection in pick-and-roll conditions. When Horford performs alongside wings and guards, he can swap on each display screen or drop as properly. With this context in thoughts, we’ll consider spacing, rim safety, and the possession battle for the completely different approaches.

Is the spacing actually higher with one massive?

The screenshots above illustrate why double massive lineups appear to create spacing points. Nevertheless, we want numbers to verify this, as a result of conclusions primarily based on visuals alone may be deceptive. To judge the Celtics’ spacing, we’ll study rim frequency, effectivity, and the power to attract fouls – primarily, how typically and successfully the Celtics assault the rim.

The info shortly highlights that the Celtics’ spacing is greatest when Porzingis is the lone massive. With him, the Celtics obtain their highest rim frequency, effectivity, and free-throw era. Conversely, when Horford is the lone massive, the Celtics lack rim stress, with solely 20% of photographs inside 4 toes of the basket and simply 17 free throws made per 100 subject purpose makes an attempt.

Double massive lineups additionally present worse spacing in comparison with lineups with Porzingis alone. Nevertheless, the numbers with Horford because the lone massive and people with double bigs are fairly related. This may be attributed to 2 primary elements. First, Horford is much less revered as a shooter than Porzingis. Second, Porzingis’ positioning typically maximizes spacing in comparison with Horford being within the nook more often than not.

Porzingis creates extra spacing as a result of he positions himself one go away from a drive, whereas Horford is commonly stationed within the nook. A shooter within the nook gives much less spacing than one positioned two steps past the arc on the wing or within the slot.

Horford’s flooring spacing doesn’t differ a lot whether or not he’s a lone massive or a part of a double massive lineup. Thus, it is smart that spacing isn’t as robust with him in comparison with Porzingis. Offensively, we will conclude that double massive lineups don’t optimize spacing in comparison with a lone Porzingis. Nevertheless, spacing is analogous whether or not Horford performs as a middle or energy ahead. Now that we’ve analyzed rim assaults, let’s study rim safety.

Is the double massive lineup higher at defending the rim?

Defensively, the Celtics look very completely different relying on who performs heart and what number of bigs are on the ground. The purpose is commonly to maintain an enormous man close to the rim or swap to forestall defensive gaps. It’s no shock, then, that the numbers differ considerably relying on the method.

With Porzingis because the lone massive, the Celtics excel defensively, decreasing opponents’ rim effectivity and makes an attempt. On common, NBA groups take 32% of their photographs on the rim at 66% effectivity, however with Porzingis anchoring the protection, the Celtics’ numbers are elite. In distinction, Horford’s lone massive numbers clarify why he’s typically paired with one other heart this season.

As Horford ages, switch-heavy defenses turn out to be much less efficient. He struggles extra towards fast wings than earlier than. Whereas the Celtics use him in drop protection, he lacks the size and instincts of elite drop bigs like Porzingis. Pairing him with one other massive helps offset these limitations.

Defensively, Porzingis as a lone massive outperforms different approaches. Nonetheless, the double massive lineup has its benefits within the possession battle.

The double massive lineup generates extra possessions

Regardless of its drawbacks, similar to spacing and rim safety, the double massive lineup has upsides. It excels at producing further possessions.

Double massive lineups are extremely efficient at offensive rebounding, rating within the 86th percentile amongst lineups with over 100 possessions. Moreover, they safe extra defensive rebounds and generate extra turnovers, typically resulting in quick breaks.

Surprisingly, the Celtics are higher in transition once they play larger. By successful the possession battle, they create extra transition alternatives regardless of the perceived limitations of measurement.

What to conclude?

Considerations about Porzingis’ lone massive minutes and his unfavourable internet ranking are overblown. The Celtics have merely skilled dangerous capturing luck when he’s on the ground. With opponents capturing 42% from three in these lineups in comparison with the Celtics’ 31%, regression to the imply will seemingly restore steadiness.

The double massive lineup additionally has its strengths. It helps protect Horford’s legs, wins possession battles, and gives depth. With Kornet and Queta exceeding expectations, a wholesome Horford and Porzingis, and Tillman prepared if wanted, the Celtics have one of many deepest and most versatile massive man rotations within the league.

When the playoffs arrive, this versatility will probably be invaluable in adapting to completely different matchups.