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The Finest NFL Bets for the Divisional Spherical: Shut Up and Dance | The Ringer
Houston Texans at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-8.5)
This can be a rematch of a Week 16 recreation during which the Chiefs closed as 3.5-point favorites at Arrowhead. The market has massively downgraded the Texans, evident within the wild-card spherical after they closed as three-point underdogs at house to the Chargers. This pattern has continued into the divisional spherical. Even in the event you bump Kansas Metropolis up a degree or two as a result of the Chiefs had two weeks off to get wholesome and relaxation all of their starters, it’s arduous to justify betting on the Chiefs at this unfold. I’ve been as skeptical of the Texans as anybody who discusses soccer on any platform, and the very best line I’d guess in opposition to the unfold is Kansas Metropolis -7.
Kansas Metropolis has been favored by six or extra factors seven instances this season. The Chiefs gained all seven video games outright however did not cowl the unfold each time.
-6.5 vs. Cincinnati, gained by 1-7 vs. L.A. Chargers, gained by 7 (push)-9 vs. Las Vegas, gained by 7-9 vs. Tampa Bay, gained by 6 in OT-7 vs. Denver, gained by 2-10.5 vs. Carolina, gained by 3-13.5 vs. Las Vegas, gained by 2
Rating All 16 Potential Matchups for Tremendous Bowl 59 | SI
2. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions
A attainable treatment on your Chiefs fatigue: the Detroit Lions! As an alternative of a rehash of two years in the past, let’s have the NFC sub within the longest-running Tremendous Bowl period 0-fer. The Lions have been round since 1930, however haven’t performed for a championship since ’57. They and the Browns are the one groups that existed when the primary Tremendous Bowl was performed that haven’t made it. As a result of the Browns disappeared for a couple of years, the Lions are the one group that’s 0-for-58. This was a historic yr of firsts in Detroit. The group had by no means gained greater than 12 video games, after which received to fifteen. That is their first time coming into the playoffs as a No. 1 seed. It looks like the entire run has been constructing to this.
I have to say, this recreation would have felt extra poetic final season. The 2 groups met on opening evening, Thursday of Week 1. It was a giant deal on the time that Detroit was picked for that recreation, after which the Lions gained by a degree. I’d have appreciated the symmetry of them bookending the season in Recreation 1 and Recreation 285. However one yr later, the football-watching world would take it
Will Brinson’s NFL divisional-round greatest bets: In Lions’ Sam LaPorta we belief, plus a robust teaser within the AFC | CBS Sports activities
Teaser: Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Texans and Payments (+7.5) vs. Ravens
The actually good transfer right here in the event you have been all around the early strains was to place in a six-point teaser on the Ravens and Chiefs when this recreation opened with the Payments favored by 1.5 after which put in one other teaser on the Payments and Chiefs as soon as the road swung throughout zero to make the Ravens a 1.5-point favourite. You’d want the Chiefs to basically win (though they must win by three clearly) after which the Ravens and Payments recreation keep inside seven factors and also you win each bets. That’s extraordinarily probably! The ship has most likely sailed for that — I don’t see the Payments changing into a favourite of greater than a degree once more barring some harm — nevertheless it’s additionally attainable this recreation ends as a decide ‘em as properly, so getting this teaser in now feels good. Baltimore’s superior. It might get a lead on Buffalo and pound Derrick Henry on their solution to a dominant victory. However you noticed what the Ravens did with Pittsburgh within the second half — I don’t suppose they will maintain Buffalo and Josh Allen down that lengthy. Allen will make performs together with his legs and Sean McDermott can have one thing cooked as much as decelerate the Ravens assault, particularly if Zay Flowers isn’t on the market once more.
Ought to the NFL change its playoff format? Six potential choices | ESPN
2. The highest seeds are nonetheless reaching the Tremendous Bowl on the similar charge. With just one group in every convention incomes a bye underneath the 14-team format, groups have been extra incentivized to land the No. 1 seed. Theoretically, it ought to pave a clearer path to a Tremendous Bowl, as these groups are the one ones that may’t be upset within the wild-card spherical and get to face the best opponent left of their bracket at house till the Tremendous Bowl.
It’s a fair smaller pattern than the one I’m utilizing elsewhere on this piece, because it’s unknown which group will make it to the title recreation, however issues haven’t shifted dramatically. Thus far, 50% of the 1-seeds within the 14-game format have made it to the Tremendous Bowl. The one championship recreation during which each prime seeds superior by the bracket was Tremendous Bowl LVII, when the Chiefs beat the Eagles.
From 2002 (when the league expanded to 32 groups and advanced into its present divisional construction) to 2019 (the ultimate yr of the 12-team playoff), guess what share of No. 1 seeds made it to the Tremendous Bowl? Precisely 50%. 5 of these 18 seasons ended with 1-seeds dueling within the championship. Within the one-team bye format, there’s no proof prime seeds have been any extra profitable than they have been prior to now.
Bleacher Report’s Professional Divisional Playoff NFL Picks | Information, Scores, | Bleacher Report
“The final time these two confronted off lower than a month in the past, it was a hard-fought, one-score recreation in favor of the Chiefs. This Texans protection, which shut down the Chargers and compelled 4 Justin Herbert interceptions, could be very strong, and the offense has simply sufficient firepower to make issues fascinating.
“Sure, the Texans offensive line is a matter, and Chris Jones figures to have a huge effect, however Joe Mixon’s dashing skill and a artistic scheme can offset a few of that, and Nico Collins can take any catch to the home. Given the Chiefs’ extended offensive struggles this season, I believe the Texans can hold this shut sufficient to cowl simply.
“I can’t imagine I’m fading Andy and Mahomes within the playoffs, however this quantity is simply too large for me to move up.”
Predictions
Davenport: Chiefs
Gagnon: Texans
Hanford: Chiefs
Knox: Chiefs
The best NFL playoff quarterbacks of all time | Yardbarker
Patrick Mahomes
It’s fairly attainable earlier than Mahomes’ sensational NFL profession involves an finish, he might be thought of the best playoff quarterback of all time. Eight seasons into his profession, Mahomes is definitely within the conversion. Coming into the 2024 marketing campaign, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs star is tied for fourth in NFL historical past with 4 Tremendous Bowl appearances, and three victories. He’s guided the Chiefs to 6 AFC Championship Recreation appearances, with a seventh attainable in 2024-25, and enters this season’s playoffs third with 15 wins. Mahomes’ 105.8 profession playoff passer ranking is an NFL document, whereas his 67.9-percent postseason completion share is the very best amongst these with no less than 10 appearances.
2025 NFL Divisional Playoffs: Professional Picks, Predictions for Each Recreation | The thirty third Group
Houston Texans vs. Kansas Metropolis ChiefsSpread: Chiefs -8.5Total: 41.5
These two groups met in Week 16, with the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs successful 27-19 in Arrowhead. They’ll be well-rested, as most of their key starters haven’t performed since Christmas Day after they defeated the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Nonetheless, this gained’t be a stroll within the park for Kansas Metropolis. The Houston Texans have a robust protection with two elite move rushers (Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.). And with the tackles struggling this season, we should always count on Andy Reid to create a gameplan that will get the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hand shortly.
The actual story is that if C.J. Stroud and the Texans can rating sufficient to maintain up. The offense has appeared relatively clunky over the past two months, particularly since Tank Dell suffered a devastating knee harm.
It’s almost inconceivable to choose in opposition to the Chiefs, particularly coming off a bye. They’re 11-0 of their final 11 house video games and have misplaced simply as soon as, with Patrick Mahomes beginning of their final 20 video games. Nonetheless, that may be a large unfold, and the Chiefs haven’t been nice in opposition to the unfold within the final two seasons.
They’re simply 3-8 of their final 11 video games in opposition to the unfold, so count on this recreation to be pretty shut. The Chiefs will finally win and advance to the AFC Championship Recreation for the seventh straight season.
Rating Prediction: Chiefs 24, Texans 17
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes going through acquainted doubts as quest for Tremendous Bowl historical past resumes | Sky Sports activities
In fact, a back-to-back defending champion with the league’s (nonetheless) greatest quarterback, one of many NFL’s best offensive minds and a defensive coordinator boasting the variety of each different quarterback within the league is nice. However how good? We’re about to learn how good.
The Chiefs offense completed the common season ranked seventeenth in whole yards, 14th in passing, twenty second in dashing, fifteenth in scoring and ninth in EPA/play, Patrick Mahomes throwing for a career-low 3,928 passing yards as a starter and 26 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
Reid’s aspect misplaced star huge receiver Rashee Rice to a season-ending harm at a time when he had drawn the second-highest goal share within the NFL, in addition to spending a number of weeks with out beginning operating again Isiah Pacheco, who would later return down the stretch.
Across the NFL
Dan Quinn says Bobby Wagner will play on Saturday | NBC Sports activities
Quinn advised reporters that Wagner will play regardless of an ankle harm that led him to be listed as a non-participant in apply on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Wagner has began each recreation in his first season with the Commanders. He had 132 tackles, two sacks, 4 passes defensed, a compelled fumble, and two fumble recoveries within the common season and he had eight tackles, a half-sack, and a fumble restoration in opposition to the Bucs within the playoff opener.
In case you missed it on Arrowhead Pleasure
Chiefs Information: Chris Jones is rested and ‘able to go play some soccer’
That features star defensive deal with Chris Jones, who left Kansas Metropolis’s Week 16 recreation (additionally in opposition to the Texans) with a calf harm — after which missed the group’s closing two contests. However Jones believes the day without work has benefited him.
“I used to be capable of get three weeks of relaxation and get my legs again underneath me,” he defined to reporters on Wednesday. “It was a protracted season. Thankfully sufficient, we have been capable of seal the first-round bye after the Pittsburgh recreation, and I used to be capable of take one other week off.”
For Jones, that’s been sufficient.
“I really feel actually good,” he added. “[I] really feel excited — [and] able to go play some soccer.”
His teammates have been able to play some soccer with out him. In opposition to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17, Kansas Metropolis sacked quarterback Russell Wilson 5 instances — prompting Jones to joke together with his place coach about whether or not the group wanted him.
“I advised Joe Cullen he’s going to get me out of right here before later taking part in like this,” stated Jones with a smile. “The blokes performed actually, actually good. However we’ve received a cohesive group that works actually, rather well collectively.”
Jones credited fellow defensive linemen George Karlaftis, Tershawn Wharton, Mike Pennell amd Derrick Nnadi as gamers who’ve stepped up this season.
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