Do the Celtics need to use Jayson Tatum more often to win?

DENVER — The Celtics have shifted to enjoying Jayson Tatum for everything of first quarters this season after letting Jaylen Brown set the tone lately. It has allowed Tatum to extend his scoring, achieve and keep early momentum in video games, whereas Brown has made probably the most of his transition by captaining the second unit and specializing in playmaking.

It began on Opening Evening when Tatum unloaded 4-of-6 three-point taking pictures over the Knicks, on his method to 37 factors on 14-of-18 subject aim makes an attempt. And since — save for a number of exceptions — Boston opened with Tatum to nice impact.

Joe Mazzulla nonetheless believed in rolling with whomever between Brown and Tatum have it going early, giving Brown alternatives to return to his former position. Typically, they each play total first quarters, like final month’s get proper blowout win over the Pacers. That’s led to blended workloads game-to-game for Tatum, who ranks sixth in utilization share (30.8%) under MVP rivals Giannis Antetokounmpo (36%), Nikola Jokic (31.5%) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (33.5%).

There’s a superb line between taking full benefit of Tatum’s creation capacity in a heliocentric position and using the proficient roster round him. However Boston has been extra profitable when it has used Tatum extra, bettering to 10-3 in Denver when he exceeds 30% utilization. Conversely, the Celtics fell to 6-5 at Oklahoma Metropolis when he falls under that threshold, in response to StatMuse. A few of that’s self-fulfilling, with stats based mostly on scoring like free throws, subject objectives and assists growing a participant’s fee. After all, extra of these result in wins and fewer end in losses.

“Have you learnt what utilization fee is? Have you learnt the right way to calculate it?,” Mazzulla requested earlier than the Nuggets recreation. “(It’s) divided by possessions. So you may nonetheless be concerned in case you make a possible help … so I believe on the finish of the day, a very powerful factor is ensuring that every one of our guys are in place to make performs for one another and there’s clearly loads of time the place Tatum needs to be Tatum and he needs to be aggressive — there’s no query about that. I believe he’s top-of-the-line gamers within the league at discovering that steadiness of when it’s time to take over and when it’s time to present the sport what it wants.”

That’s the components that labored in 2024, and whereas the roster composition and roles stay just like final 12 months, it’s not the identical season. Shooters round Tatum have suffered worse outcomes this 12 months, and Tatum is experiencing a brand new profession excessive in scoring effectivity (55.7 eFG%) and passing prowess (24.7 AST%). The on/off numbers aren’t as stark as in previous years (seventy fifth percentile) and replicate a extra competent offense (+2.8 factors per 100 possessions higher) with Tatum on the ground in comparison with off. Brown continued serving to Boston keep its dominance (+10.9 web ranking, Brown on, Tatum off) with the second unit, although Tatum takes them to new heights in his restricted minutes (+13 web ranking).

These are all slender methods of wanting on the better staff dynamic, together with the impression of gamers going out and in of the lineup. The Celtics suffered in Oklahoma Metropolis, the place solely Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet scored within the second half, from Tatum not taking up the offense. Then, he launched 23 pictures at Denver to energy a robust begin and late 15-0 run that left him +23 with 29 factors regardless of struggling 1-of-9 from three.

“It’s nearly studying the sport,” Tatum stated that morning. “It’s not constructed for me to only dominate the ball or the sport night-in and night-out. We simply acquired too many proficient gamers and that’s not the best way we play. It’s undoubtedly sure instances and durations the place it’s important to assault, be extra aggressive and search for your self, however I simply felt like lots of instances I made the proper move (towards the Thunder) and we simply didn’t hit pictures at a traditional of a fee as we do. It’s only a make or miss league on some nights.”

This isn’t to say that Tatum ought to revert to the one-on-one tendencies that tortured Celtics followers in 2021 and led to him breaking a playoff turnover report in 2022. It’s a matter of whether or not Tatum’s scoring development since then would enable for a extra environment friendly Boston offense by using him extra usually. He leads the NBA amongst gamers with not less than 3.0 possessions per recreation with 1.20 factors per possession in isolation. Recognizing up, he ranks within the 61st percentile and is within the 81st percentile of pick-and-roll creators. He produces as many factors per possession posting up as Domantas Sabonis. Tatum’s a 93rd percentile cutter and even carves out 1.12 PPP as a curler.

As Mazzulla talked about, Tatum can create offense exterior of these conditions dictated by a possession ending in a shot, turnover or free throws straight from his involvement. That results in the controversy from June’s Finals over whether or not Tatum performed properly regardless of his scoring numbers plummeting. He drew crowds and moved the ball out of them, usually his position in Boston’s offense that typically makes use of Tatum as a decoy to free the staff’s different gamers.

“We’re clearly at our greatest when he’s tremendous aggressive and we’re at our greatest when our guys are aggressive, so proceed to work that steadiness and it’s a credit score to him understanding that steadiness,” Mazzulla stated. “I do know that may be troublesome for him, however on the similar time, (utilization is) most likely a ineffective stat as a result of it doesn’t depend into his impression. He had 15 potential assists final recreation. If these pictures go in, he has a distinct stat line from that standpoint. So, I believe he’s doing an important job, no matter what protection that he’s in, of constructing the proper play, whether or not it’s for himself or for different folks. When he’s aggressive, that’s once we’re at our greatest.”

This dialog at all times returns to Brown, who’s down from 55.7% to 51.7% taking pictures two-pointers, 35.4% to 32.5% on threes and turning the ball over at a barely larger share over final 12 months whereas taking extra pictures every night time. His aggression, tempo and skill to show protection into offense stay essential to the staff. Like in previous years although, he and Tatum’s offensive runs can commerce off in waves. When one emerges early, like Brown did on the Thunder, it will probably depart the opposite out of the sport or looking the place to slot in.

Brown has expressed the shift away from logging the whole first as an adjustment, one he’s made one of the best of by growing his help fee by almost three factors. The components for this group works when pictures fall. After they don’t, there’s a case, by way of utilization fee (32% on Tuesday) or eye check, that Tatum can carry this staff when the offense dries up extra usually.

“Yeah, I imply he nonetheless handed. I believe he had 10-12 potential assists, however once more, it’s that steadiness,” Mazzulla stated after the sport. “We would like him to be nice each night time. We’re by no means gonna ask him or anybody of our guys to be much less of themselves. It’s simply having an understanding of giving the sport what it wants at that individual time and put us in place to win, no matter which may be. So, he did an important job of that tonight all through the sport, defensively as properly. I believe he gave up two threes to Porter to begin the sport and after that he was very, very intentional defensively and simply as a lot on the offensive finish.”