Is now the moment to make a move for Jimmy Butler?

This thought experiment explores the hypothetical state of affairs of a Jimmy Butler commerce, analyzing its potential on-court advantages, monetary ramifications, and what it might sign for the Celtics’ future decision-making.

Jimmy Butler to the Celtics might have occurred earlier than — twice, really.

First, again at his draft in 2011, then President of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge was near deciding on him however ended up with JaJuan Johnson after a commerce with the Nets. A couple of years later, Ainge might have traded for Jimmy Butler utilizing the draft picks that changed into Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. And but, Jimmy Butler to the Celtics by no means occurred… to date.

As you might need heard, Jimmy Butler has reportedly requested to be traded out of Miami, searching for a spot to compete for a title. And what higher place for that than the Boston Celtics? From his perspective, this may appear to be the proper alternative.

You could be questioning—how and extra importantly why might the Celtics commerce for Butler, and whether or not it is smart to take a chance on the 35-year-old ahead. Properly, stroll with me into this parallel universe (that might be a not too far actuality).

The how

The Celtics are within the second apron, so they can’t ship a number of gamers in a commerce to match salaries and tackle further wage past what’s already on their books. This might probably imply a simple swap between Jaylen Brown and Jimmy Butler, probably with draft picks concerned, probably going from the Warmth to the Celtics. As we communicate, the Warmth have solely two picks to ship (2030 and 2031 first spherical) however they might transfer issues round to construct a greater supply.

Why it would make sense on the courtroom

What are the Celtics combating this season?

Producing free throws (twenty first within the league)
Attending to the rim (twenty eighth within the league)
Forcing turnovers (twenty third within the league)
Creating transition alternatives (twenty fifth within the league)

What’s Jimmy Butler good at? Properly, the entire above.

Offensively, he’s onerous to cease from attending to the rim. This yr, half of his shot makes an attempt have come on the rim, the place he converts at a 70% fee—regardless of Miami’s common spacing. Think about the injury Butler might do with the elite spacing offered by the Celtics.

He’s additionally an absolute menace in terms of drawing fouls. He generates taking pictures fouls on 23% of his makes an attempt—higher than Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo. This alone might enhance the Celtics’ offense considerably when their outdoors pictures aren’t falling. For context, Butler averages 1.31 factors per shot try, in comparison with 1.10 for Jaylen Brown.

Defensively, the Celtics have struggled to create turnovers and transition alternatives. Jimmy Butler’s elite anticipation and skill to disrupt passing lanes can be a big enhance. Traditionally, he has excelled at pressuring ball handlers and forcing steals.

In transition, whereas the Celtics would miss Jaylen Brown’s ending potential, Butler’s playmaking would compensate. Mathematically, based mostly on on-court influence, Butler might assist rework most of the Celtics’ present weaknesses into strengths.

Nevertheless, the Celtics can be lacking Jaylen Brown point-of-attack protection. This commerce would enhance the off-ball protection and will result in extra transition, however the Celtics will likely be out of their go-to-guy to cease the opponents celebrity. Would Jimmy Butler be capable of decelerate Luka Doncic as a lot as Jaylen Brown did over the last NBA Finals? I doubt it.

Nevertheless, Jrue Vacation or Jayson Tatum might take over the celebrity project, whereas Jimmy Butler would stay off-ball, prepared to leap on passes.

As for considerations about match, Butler has a smaller utilization fee than Brown, and his driving and post-up recreation would thrive inside the Celtics’ spacing. He wouldn’t clog their offense or disrupt the move.

And let’s not overlook Jaylen Brown’s remark that the Celtics “hunt seals” on offense. Jimmy Butler is an elite hunter.

Why it would make monetary sense

The Celtics’ monetary state of affairs is complicated. They’re within the second apron and are projected to stay there subsequent season. Past the standard penalties, staying within the second apron for 3 years inside a five-year span has vital penalties: “if groups stay within the second apron for any three years in a five-year interval, their upcoming first-round draft choose is robotically moved to the tip of the primary spherical.”

The Celtics presently have 5 gamers incomes over $30 million yearly for the subsequent two years. Shifting Jrue Vacation’s contract can be troublesome, Derrick White’s deal is just too invaluable to commerce, and Kristaps Porziņģis gives essential spacing and rim safety—plus his latest harm diminishes his commerce worth. In some unspecified time in the future, the Celtics might face a selection between their two franchise stars.

Buying and selling for Jimmy Butler might be an early (and probably untimely) approach out. Whereas Butler’s participant possibility looms, his expiring contract might present the Celtics with monetary flexibility within the close to future—all whereas holding them in rivalry.

Nevertheless, what’s going to occur to Jimmy Butler’s subsequent contract? Will he need out of the Celtics? Will he ask an excessive amount of — making it inconceivable for the Celtics to maintain him comfortable? Jimmy Butler is already 35 years previous, his finest years are up to now, whereas Jaylen Brown peak is but to return.

Will this gamble of Jimmy Butler convey the Celtics extra finance flexibility — or will they be caught in a extra problematic state of affairs, with a participant that lately appeared inconceivable to maintain comfortable.

What concerning the intangibles?

Neglect the courtroom and the finance for a second… how would the Celtics gamers and training employees react to reminiscent of tsunamis within the locker room? The Celtics present success has been construct round Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum — would this even work with one of many Jay’s out?

On prime of Jaylen’s departure, would the Celtics be capable of combine Jimmy Butler after such a monumental transfer? Jimmy has been an enemy for the final years. How might the Celtics entrance workplace commerce for him in opposition to one in all their brothers?

There are clear doubts that Jimmy Butler would match effectively with a gaggle that simply noticed its Finals MVP and longest-tenured participant traded for him. And it’s uncertain that Brad Stevens would break aside the group he spent the offseason solidifying.

Nevertheless, a possible Butler commerce serves as a reminder that troublesome choices are on the horizon. Keep in mind that, on prime of the overloaded payroll, the Boston Celtics are presently on the market. With this commerce, the present possession might make the monetary state of affairs extra interesting for potential consumers.

Whereas such a earth-shattering deal might not make sense this season, it might be a template for what’s to return.