Picks against the spread for every game

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Falcons common supervisor Terry Fontenot raised a number of eyebrows when he chosen Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth decide within the draft final spring. It a wierd selection, contemplating Atlanta had signed free agent Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract just some weeks earlier. 

Sunday, we’ll begin to be taught if there was a way to the insanity because the Falcons, nonetheless in rivalry for the NFC South title at 7-7, change the ineffective Cousins with Penix for his or her residence recreation towards the Giants. 

Cousins, 36, gave it a superb go on a repaired Achilles tendon, however he has turn out to be sluggish and indecisive. He’s most likely the primary purpose the Falcons have misplaced 4 of their previous 5 video games, as he’s thrown one landing go, 9 interceptions and been sacked 11 instances in that span. 

No person actually is aware of whether or not Penix goes to be nice or horrible. Extra seemingly he’ll be someplace in between. I’m keen to put the 8.5 factors towards the long-gone Giants to search out out. 

Although Penix has thrown simply 5 passes within the NFL, he launched 1,685 of them for 13,741 yards over six school seasons at Indiana and Washington. He is aware of what he’s doing, and may have the ability to unlock Atlanta’s offensive weapons — Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Tyler Allgeier — higher than Cousins did. 

The decide: Falcons -8.5. 

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS

My first inclination was to journey with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams within the week after their first breakout performances as Jets. In spite of everything, it is going to be a really Lambeau-like 24 levels on Sunday at MetLife, and the Rams have been training in temperatures within the 70s and 80s. 

Throw in that the Jets’ different prime gamers endured the chills in such locations as Ames, Iowa, Madison, Wisc. and Columbus, Ohio, and also you begin to get the concept they could thrive. 

However on the opposite aspect of the argument, the Rams are in first place within the NFC West and are desperately making an attempt to carry on to that spot — or any playoff berth. They’ve a QB-coach tandem in Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay that has gained a Tremendous Bowl collectively. And so they have a rugged operating assault mixed with a brief, precision passing recreation that shouldn’t be too affected by the situations. 

Saturday 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3.5) over Houston Texans

Must admit I used to be extra all in favour of taking the Chiefs as +3 residence underdogs when it appeared as if Carson Wentz would change Patrick Mahomes. However with Mahomes’ ankle testing, we’re again to that acquainted place of hoping Kansas Metropolis does sufficient to cowl. This time I believe they’ll, because the quantity’s a little bit lighter than regular and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will get after a pedestrian Houston offense that has a difficulty with Joe Mixon’s availability. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6) over Steelers

This unfold would possibly look awfully massive for this AFC North matchup and it’s all the time tempting to aspect with Mike Tomlin as an underdog, the place he’s nonetheless protecting at 65.5 p.c even after final week’s 27-13 loss in Philadelphia. Nonetheless, accidents are beginning to chisel away on the Steelers. With out George Pickens, the offense has disappeared, averaging simply 215 yards per recreation prior to now two weeks. T.J. Watt has a foul ankle however he doesn’t have an damage designation for this recreation. 

Sunday

Detroit Lions (-6.5) over CHICAGO BEARS

Not worrying an excessive amount of about some chilly, wet Chicago climate, the absence of David Montgomery or the gathering of accidents to Detroit’s protection. The Lions are combating it out with the Eagles and Vikings at 12-2 within the NFC, and so they have greater than sufficient firepower to distance themselves from a Bears crew that’s averaged 14.75 ppg in its eight-game skid. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7.5) over Cleveland Browns

Of their previous six video games, the Bengals have averaged 34 ppg. They’re simply 3-3 in that span however now go residence to face Dorian Thompson-Robinson because the Browns’ third try as a beginning quarterback. Simply must hope Myles Garrett doesn’t get a clear shot at banged-up Joe Burrow. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5) over Tennessee Titans

Tennessee, an NFL-worst 2-12 ATS, switches from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph. Although that is perhaps an improve, the Titans have damage issues with Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Seems like an affordable quantity to again Shane Steichen, who’s 8-4 ATS as a favourite with the Colts. 

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

The Commanders had a 10-3 lead within the third quarter at Philly on Nov. 14 earlier than Saquon Barkley went bonkers and the Eagles prevailed, 26-18. Don’t thoughts backing Jayden Daniels and the house ’canine in a revenge divisional spot. 

Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Carolina was on a pleasant run of 5 underdog covers in a row however bought dragged as a favourite by Dallas final week, permitting 149 speeding yards to Rico Dowdle and three landing passes by Cooper Rush. On the lookout for James Conner and Kyler Murray to select up the place the Cowboys left off. 

Minnesota Vikings (-3) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seattle had gained 4 in a row earlier than getting dismantled at residence by the Packers, 30-13, on Sunday evening. Geno Smith, who left with a knee damage, will play however may very well be hampered. Working backs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have been coping with accidents, with Walker lacking the final two video games and Charbonnet struggling an indirect damage. Powerful spot towards a Brian Flores protection and Justin Jefferson offense. 

BUFFALO BILLS (-14) over New England Patriots

After protecting with the Ravens at -16.5 final week, I really feel a little bit extra emboldened to put a giant quantity like this. The forecast for Orchard Park is 17 levels with an opportunity of snow. Josh Allen and the Payments snort at these situations. I determine it’s the final place a 3-11 opponent wish to spend three hours. 

San Francisco 49ers (+1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami’s midweek damage listing contained Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Terron Armstead, with Waddle being listed as uncertain to play. The Niners have had comparable issues all season, however I’m relying on Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel & Co. to be heard from once more earlier than it’s throughout. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

The Jaguars look to be a crew that’s nonetheless competing and is considerably competent offensively, led by WR Brian Thomas Jr. They need to leap at this opportunity for a uncommon win towards the Raiders, who just about are already stocking the draft struggle room with meals and drinks. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) over DALLAS COWBOYS

Two issues struck me in regards to the Bucs’ win over the Chargers final week. One, Baker Mayfield actually is aware of the best way to use Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. And two, they hit tougher than any protection I’ve seen this season. I don’t consider the Cowboys are going to be up for 3 hours of bodily punishment. 

Betting on the NFL?

Monday

New Orleans Saints (+14.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

Saints have lined three of their previous 5 spreads and haven’t misplaced by greater than a landing since a string of 4 double-digit losses from Weeks 5-8. I don’t see them as a bottom-of-the-barrel crew within the Giants-Titans-Raiders class. And although the Packers want the sport, there’s no actual urgency to beat the Saints by this a lot. 

BEST BETS: Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals. 

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Jaguars (Locks 8-7 in 2024). 

LAST WEEK: 8-8 general, 1-2 Greatest Bets. 

THURSDAY: Broncos (L).