UFC 310’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Pantoja vs. Asakura

UFC 310 goes down this weekend (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024) contained in the acquainted T-Cellular Area in Las Vegas, Nevada. The pay-per-view (PPV) major occasion will function Flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, trying to defend his title for a 3rd time. His controversial challenger is former RIZIN champion, Kai Asakura, who will probably be making his Octagon debut.

It’s a “particular mission.”

UFC 310’s co-main occasion is a match-up of prime Welterweight title contenders. Shavkat Rakhmonov was speculated to problem Belal Muhammad for the belt; nonetheless, Muhammad’s toe had different concepts. Ian Machado Garry is available in because the late substitute with hopes of beating “Nomad” and stealing his title shot.

Rapidly …

The rest of UFC 310’s PPV major card contains Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov, Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie and Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi. And if that doesn’t sound stacked sufficient for you (sorry, Aljo), the “Prelims” embrace some high quality names and match-ups, too.

Certainly, UFC 310’s “Prelims” function Dominick Reyes vs. Anthony Smith, Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders, Chase Hooper vs. Clay Guida and Aljamain Sterling vs. Movsar Evloev.

As at all times, there’s tons to guess on this card and we’ve received odds for all of the fights beneath:

UFC 310 Essential Card Cash Line Odds

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Alexandre Pantoja (-270) vs. Kai Asakura (+220)

The final time we noticed Pantoja, he struggled with the boxing of Steve Erceg. Certainly, at UFC 301 earlier this yr, Pantoja was getting beat up on the ft till Erceg made a pricey error. The Australian elected to strive wrestling a broken Pantoja. That gave Pantoja a window to get better after which flip the momentum of the struggle, utilizing his wrestling and grappling to nullify Erceg.

That was Pantoja’s second title protection. His first was a unanimous choice over Brandon Royval in 2023. Pantoja has not misplaced since dropping a call to Askar Akarov in 2020.

Asakura, in the meantime, joins a really small group of fighters who’ve contended for a UFC title of their Octagon debuts (Ronda Rousey, Liz Carmouche and Dan Henderson in the event you ignore his early look within the tournament-era).

Asakura final competed multiple yr in the past, on the “RIZIN vs. Bellator” hybrid present. At that occasion he completed Juan Archuleta, with a knee to the physique, to win the RIZIN Bantamweight title for a second time. Previous to that, he beat Yuki Motoya, additionally with a knee to the physique.

Asakura’s document in Japan is somewhat up and down. In 2020, he was famously KO’d by Kyoji Horiguchi (see it right here). That ended his first reign as RIZIN Bantamweight champ.

There’s a little bit of UFC myth-making at work right here with Asakura. He’s being bought as a dominant power out of Japan. He’s a enjoyable fighter and really harmful (particularly underneath the RIZIN rule-set), however he’s no world beater. And at 31-years-old, we’ve possible seen his ceiling already.

The largest benefit he brings to UFC’s Flyweight division is his dimension. He’s an enormous Bantamweight at 5’8.” So, he’s projected to be an enormous Flyweight. However, he hasn’t made Flyweight in a really very long time. And he’s been making Bantamweight in Japan the place he was possible allowed a number of strategies which can be banned on this aspect of the Ocean (like IV drips to re-hydrate). Japan can be infamous for wanting the opposite approach on PEDs.

Given the place he’s coming from, I feel Asakura may need a impolite awakening within the Octagon in “Sin Metropolis.” Additionally, he’s used to preventing in a hoop, not a cage. And he’s used to with the ability to throw soccer kicks and knees to the pinnacle of a grounded opponent (issues he’s used to brutal impact up to now).

Asakura’s offense may be very enjoyable to observe. And his flying knee is a really potent weapon. However, he’s additionally very hittable. I don’t suppose he’ll be capable of launch his wild offense at Pantoja with out penalties.

Pantoja will possible be capable of discover Asakura’s chin off the again of Asakura’s large swings. And if and when Asakura launches himself within the air, Pantoja is extra prone to seize him and put him down than recoil from a rib-crushing strike.

The oddsmakers agree with me and have Pantoja as a large favourite.

His odds on this struggle are the shortest they’ve been since he KO’d Matt Schnell within the first spherical again in 2019 (he was -310 there).

Asakura can definitely spring a shock and get a win with considered one of his wild assaults. However, I’m fairly assured that the extra possible final result is Pantoja preventing a clear and measured struggle, avoiding Asakura on the ft and scoring takedowns when the alternatives current themselves (of which there will probably be many).

Vegas likes the possibilities of Pantoja profitable the struggle on the bottom (he’s simply +165 to get a submission). He’s +275 for a call win. I lean towards the choice, as a result of I feel Pantoja may go position-over-submission and fulfill himself with controlling and beating up Asakura on the bottom for lengthy stretches of the struggle. If he have been to exert himself and hunt for a technical knockout, that may pay out at +400 odds.

DraftKings has a double probability guess of Pantoja to win by way of submission or choice. That’s -165 and a pleasant guess in the event you’re feeling conservative.

I actually suppose this goes to a call, although. And I don’t suppose it is going to be a nail biter of a call.

Greatest guess: Alexandre Pantoja by way of unanimous choice (+350)

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Shavkat Rakhmonov (-390) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+290)

Somebody’s 0 has received to go! And I feel it is going to be Garry who will endure the sting of defeat for the primary time in his profession.

Rakhmonov is the large favourite on this struggle. And who can deny him that? He’s made mincemeat out of everybody he’s seen within the Octagon to date, punishing them along with his prime tier floor and pound and his brutal squeeze.

Final trip, he tapped Stephen Thompson (see it right here). Earlier than that, he choked out Geoff Neal (see that right here). And previous to that, he guillotined Neil Magny (see it right here).

Machado Garry has Magny and Neal on his document, together with Michael Web page and Daniel Rodriguez. Nevertheless, once you have a look at his wins, these are choices over Magny, Neal and Web page. Certainly, Machado Garry is great at MMA; nonetheless, he’s not proven as a lot violent intent and risk as Rakhmonov.

And, just like the bookies, I feel he’s going to wilt when he faces that form of violence himself.

If you have a look at putting stats, Machado Garry lands extra vital strikes per minute (5.50 to Rakhmonov’s 4.12). Nevertheless, he additionally absorbs barely extra and has the more severe accuracy of the 2. Rakhmonov’s 61 p.c accuracy on vital strikes may be very excessive (partly as a result of his floor and pound appears laser guided at occasions). That accuracy would put him prime in his division if not for the the official stat books needing a minimum of 350 vital strikes landed to justify entry. Rakhmonov has landed 207 vital strikes in his six UFC bouts. He’s restricted his opponents to 121 vital strikes over that span (69 of which have been landed by Neal).

Add that Rakhmonov has a three-inch attain benefit and I feel it’s fairly clear that Machado Garry will face an uphill battle within the stand-up.

And if this struggle goes to the bottom, then it’s possible a wrap. Rakhmonov doesn’t land a variety of takedowns, however his submissions are so good that he doesn’t want many probabilities to make them depend.

I’m very excessive on Rakhmonov to win this struggle. However, I feel probably the most attention-grabbing bets are across the over/underneath. The full has been set at 2.5 rounds for this five-round affair. That feels actually low to me (the underneath is +130 and the over is -166).

Machado Garry is a brilliant man. And I feel he is aware of he must be excellent to win this struggle. I feel that can translate to the identical kind of anti-fighting we noticed in opposition to Web page and Neal. Machado Garry goes to be on his bike and I feel it can take Rakhmonov some rounds to catch as much as him. It would even go to a call (Rakhmonov by choice is +275).

My finest guess on this struggle makes use of DraftKings’ similar recreation parlay and it’s primarily based on my perception that Rakhmonov is much better than Machado Garry, however Machado Garry will probably be doing his best possible to make this struggle final a very long time.

Greatest guess: Shavkat Rakhmonov to Win and Over 2.5 rounds (-105)

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Ciryl Gane (-360) vs. Alexander Volkov (+270)

Vegas is sleeping on Alexander Volkov once more. And I’m going to take him … once more.

Volkov was a +185 underdog in opposition to Sergei Pavlovich in June. And “Drago” tore him aside. Volkov has quietly put collectively a four-fight win streak (no imply feat at Heavyweight) with stoppages over Tai Tuivasa (see it right here), Alexandr Romanov (see it right here) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (see it right here).

Towards Pavlovich, he regarded maybe the very best we’ve ever seen him in UFC. His jab was on level and he timed Pavlovich to perfection, busting him up with that straight punch. He was additionally in a position to keep away from all the things Pavlovich, a daunting finisher, was in a position to throw at him.

Why can’t he do this to Gane?

Gane final fought in Sept. 2023. That’s when he beat-up Serghei Spivac, which is a good win. Previous to that he was submitted by Jon Jones (see it right here).

Gane and Volkov fought again in 2021 with Gane profitable by choice. However, I actually like Volkov’s enhancements since then and I’m involved about attainable ring rust for Gane.

Of their first struggle, Gane took a unanimous choice due to out-landing Volkov on the ft. He landed 135 of 255 vital strikes (53 p.c) to Volkov’s 115 of 241 (47 p.c). Gane additionally missed on all 4 of his takedown makes an attempt. Volkov didn’t try any takedowns. Gane did a pleasant job of blending up his strikes within the struggle, touchdown 1 / 4 of his photographs to the physique. Volkov overly relied on leg kicks (which made up virtually half his putting offense).

That was probably the most Volkov has ever focused an opponent’s legs. I feel we’ll see him save on a few of these leg kicks this time round and as an alternative put extra of effort into his straight punches. If he does that, I feel he can disrupt Gane like he did Pavlovich and pull off one other upset.

The Volkov moneyline may be very tempting for me, since I’m so excessive on this underdog. I’m going to be conservative, although, and take the factors on Volkov. I feel that is going to a call and this fashion I’m coated until Gane severely out-performs him.

Greatest guess: Alexander Volkov +3.5 (-105)

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Bryce Mitchell (-600) vs. Kron Gracie (+400)

It is a bizarre struggle between two bizarre guys. I’m not an enormous fan of both of them and that’s not simply due to the nonsense that dribbles out of their brains each time they open their mouths.

Gracie — who hasn’t fought since Could 2023 — is the large underdog right here. That’s when he misplaced a fairly embarrassing choice to Charles Jourdain. Previous to that, he dropped a call to Cub Swanson. His solely UFC win was a submission over Alex Caceres in his debut (see that right here).

Mitchell, in the meantime, was obliterated by Josh Emmett in his final struggle (see that scary first spherical knockout right here). Previous to that, he received previous Dan Ige and was submitted by future champion, Ilia Topuria (no disgrace in that — see it right here).

Mitchell and Gracie are going to offer one another the struggle they need. Gracie might be the higher grappler. However, Mitchell is by far the higher athlete and fighter. And Mitchell can be extra prone to attempt to win the struggle, as an alternative of attempting to coast by it like Gracie did in opposition to Jourdain.

Greatest guess: Bryce Mitchell to win by choice (-200)

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Nate Landwehr (-150) vs. Doo Ho Choi (+125)

That is the “Battle of the Night time” in ready …

Landwehr has change into must-see-TV due to his comeback technical knockout win over Jammall Emmers final trip (see it right here). Which was adopted by an epic second on the mic. One the place he proclaimed, “beat my ass and see what occurs.”

Landwehr is a treasure and he’s additionally fairly darn good. He was TKO’d by Herbert Burns in his debut (see it right here) and that’s not nice. However, since then, he’s crushed Darren Elkins (and siphoned off a few of his vibe within the course of) and crushed L’udovit Klein and David Onama. Klein and Onama have regarded fairly slick these days. His win over Klein got here by way of anaconda choke (see it right here).

Choi, in the meantime, sparked Invoice Algeo in July. He regarded extremely emotional after that win, his first win since he stopped Thiago Tavares in 2016. Since then, he dropped a call to Cub Swanson and was stopped by Jeremy Stephens (see it right here) and Charles Jourdain (see it right here). That was adopted by a draw with Kyle Nelson.

A rising “Nate The Prepare” versus a resurgent “Korean Tremendous Boy” is a lot enjoyable on paper. I actually hope it delivers on struggle evening. If it does, I feel we’re a end. I like Landwehr’s possibilities of being the hammer and never the nail on this situation (he lands shut to 2 extra vital strikes per minute than Choi). His takedowns may give Choi some bother, too (Choi has only a 47 p.c takedown protection).

The spherical whole is ready at 2.5. The over is +110 and the underneath is -140. I just like the underneath, however want the chances have been higher. As an alternative I’m going to go for the precise methodology of victory and hope we get fireworks … and that the struggle ends with a bang.

Greatest guess: Precise Methodology of Victory – KO/TKO/DQ (+110)

UFC 310 Late ‘Prelims’ Underneath Card Odds

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Anthony Smith (+270) vs. Dominick Reyes (-360)

Reyes is coming into UFC 310 similar to Choi is: on the again of a really feel good second (after a protracted stretch of really feel unhappy moments). Reyes’ second was at UFC Louisville, taking out Dustin Jacoby with a primary spherical technical knockout (see it right here).

That win was his first since he smashed Chris Weidman in 2019 (see it right here) to arrange a title shot in opposition to Jon Jones. Reyes fought Jones to an in depth choice, with many followers and media members scoring the struggle for Reyes. That might be Jones’ final struggle as a Gentle Heavyweight (for now, possibly).

After that controversial loss (the primary of his professional profession) Reyes was completed by Jan Blachowicz (see it right here), Jiri Prochazka (see it right here) and Ryan Spann (see it right here).

Smith, in the meantime, misplaced to Roman Dolidze in a glorified sparring match at UFC 303 in June. That got here after his large upset over Vitor Petrino, who he beat by first spherical guillotine as a +400 underdog (see it right here). Smith is 6-6 since his personal loss to the aforementioned Jones (with out controversy) again in 2019.

If Reyes hadn’t gone out and crushed Jacoby this is able to have been a really exhausting struggle to choose. Nevertheless, with Reyes maybe shaking off the dangerous vibes with that win, I’m believing he can get by Smith (who regarded fairly sluggish in opposition to Dolidze).

Surprisingly, Reyes is only one yr youthful than Smith. Stat-wise they’re fairly related, with the one obvious distinction being takedown protection. Reyes’ takedown protection is a stellar 80 p.c (although he’s not been threatened with many in his profession). Smith’s is a extra so-so 50 p.c.

I feel the chances are somewhat too far aside on this struggle. And I wouldn’t be shocked if Smith’s veteran savvy snagged him a win. Although, I’m leaning towards Reyes taking a call. The over has been set at 1.5 rounds (at -166), which appears ridiculous to me. That might be good to place into some parlays.

Greatest guess: Battle to go the Distance – Sure (+175)

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Vicente Luque (+150) vs. Themba Gorimbo (-180)

Luque was speculated to struggle Nick Diaz. Fortunately, that’s not occurring (particulars right here). Getting in a cage is the very last thing Diaz wants proper now.

Gorimbo, alternatively, is available in off a snug win over Niko Value in October. That adopted wins over Ramiz Brahimaj (who regarded nice just a few weekends in the past) and Pete Rodriguez.

Luque final fought in March, when he was completed by Joaquin Buckley (see it right here). Previous to that, he defeated the swiftly-declining Rafael dos Anjos and misplaced to Geoff Neal by way of technical knockout (see it right here). That brutal loss result in a mind bleed, a kind of damage that has killed many boxers and MMA fighters.

I’m not very comfy with Luque nonetheless preventing after struggling such an damage. Sadly, he’s in opposition to a man who strikes with a lot of energy and accuracy. Gorimbo’s accuracy on vital strikes is 61 p.c and he lands 3.11 per minute. His quantity isn’t that spectacular (Luque lands 5.07); nonetheless, Gorimbo absorbs simply 1.07 vital strikes per minute — one of many lowest numbers within the promotion. Luque, alternatively, soaks up 5.21 vital strikes a minute — by no means a very good signal when that quantity is increased than vital strikes landed.

Gorimbo has good wrestling as nicely. He lands 4.89 takedowns each quarter-hour and has a 65 p.c accuracy.

For me, Gorimbo is without doubt one of the finest favorites on the whole card. I’ll fortunately take him to beat the unfold in opposition to Luque.

Greatest guess: Themba Gorimbo -3.5 (+135)

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Aljamain Sterling (+215) vs. Movsar Evloev (-265)

I don’t suppose UFC needs to be within the Aljamain Sterling enterprise for much longer. The promotion has buried its former Bantamweight champion on the undercard. And it put him in opposition to Movsar Evloev, who’s a horrible match-up for him.

Anybody, actually.

Sterling’s UFC profession has been a case-study in how, “the squeaky wheel will get the grease” doesn’t apply to MMA.

Sterling is coming off an enormous win over Calvin Kattar. That was his Featherweight debut and it got here on UFC 300’s “Prelims” undercard. Earlier than that, he was KO’d by Sean O’Malley to lose his UFC Bantamweight title (see it right here).

The O’Malley loss got here quickly after his win over Henry Cejudo (regardless of Sterling saying he needed a break).

Evloev is undefeated and has quietly scored wins over some superb Featherweights, together with Arnold Allen, Diego Lopes and Dan Ige. Like Sterling, Evloev is a decision-machine. So, I don’t anticipate UFC to point out him a lot love even when he succeeds in taking some shine off Sterling on Saturday.

Sterling’s greatest weapon is his wrestling (and again takes). Nevertheless, Evloev is a greater wrestler. I’m fairly assured we’re going to see a wrestling meet right here and Evloev goes to be the one on prime for many the struggle.

Greatest guess: Movsar Evloev to win by choice (-150)

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Randy Brown (+185) vs. Bryan Battle (-225)

Battle battered Kevin Jousset in Paris just a few weeks in the past. After which ripped into the French followers. The struggle — and the antics — acted as a little bit of a popping out celebration for Battle, who’s now 6-1 (1 NC) in UFC. His lone loss was a call to Rinat Fakhretdinov in 2022. His wins have come fairly low down on playing cards and he’s but to get a win over a recognizable identify.

Brown is a good step up in competitors for Battle. He’s driving a three-fight win streak with wins over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Muslim Salikhov (by way of KO — see it right here).

I feel this can be a very shut struggle.

Each males are good strikers. Battle is the marginally higher wrestler, although he doesn’t actually attempt to assert himself in that space of the sport. If he did attempt to take down Brown, he may discover some success doing so. Dos Santos was in a position to take down Brown 4 occasions and rack up 5 minutes of management time of their struggle. That wasn’t sufficient to out-weigh all of the success Brown had on the ft, although.

If Battle can sustain with Brown in putting (which I feel he can) and sprinkle in a takedown, I feel he’s received a terrific probability of profitable this.

Greatest guess: Bryan Battle moneyline (-225)

UFC 310 Early ‘Prelims’ Underneath Card Odds

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Chris Weidman (-115) vs. Eryk Anders (-105)

Weidman gained a really bizarre eyepoke-festooned struggle with Bruno Silva final trip. That got here after a call loss to Brad Tavares within the struggle that marked his return from a damaged leg.

Anders, in the meantime, beat Jamie Pickett in March. That adopted loss to Marc-Andre Barriault.

Weidman turned 40 years outdated in June. It’s important to be a fairly particular fighter for me to choose you when you cross that line. Nevertheless, Anders isn’t any spring rooster himself — he turned 37 in Could. Weidman, although, has significantly extra struggle years on him — thanks partly to some brutal losses alongside the way in which (like this one right here to Gegard Mousasi).

In his prime, Weidman wouldn’t have had a lot bother right here, however I don’t suppose he has sufficient left within the tank to out-pace Anders.

Greatest guess: Eryk Anders moneyline (-105)

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Cody Durden (+135) vs. Joshua Van (-160)

Durden is 1-1 this yr. In July he was beating Bruno Silva earlier than he ran chin first into an uppercut (see it right here). In September, he defeated Matt Schnell, who got here in heavy, with a ninja choke (see it right here).

Van, in the meantime, is 2-1 in 2024. He was KO’d by Charles Johnson in July (see it right here). However, that’s sandwiched by wins over Felipe Bunes and Edgar Chairez.

Each of those guys prefer to assault. And each accomplish that with some reckless abandonment. I feel this implies there’s a very good probability of somebody getting slept right here.

Greatest guess: Underneath 2.5 rounds (-125)

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Michael Chiesa (-112) vs. Max Griffin (-108)

Chiesa took a simple win over the shell of Tony Ferguson in August (watch highlights). That was his first struggle since being submitted by Kevin Holland in July 2023 (see it right here). That struggle got here after a two-year layoff.

Griffin, in the meantime, received by Jeremiah Wells with a break up choice in February. Previous to that, he misplaced a unanimous choice to Michael Morales.

Griffin is the favourite right here, regardless of him simply turning 39 and his UFC document being 8-8. Chiesa opened with plus odds, however that has come down so much.

Chiesa is 36 and, if it hadn’t been for accidents, his ceiling within the sport would have eclipsed Griffin’s, by far. I feel his jiu-jitsu will give Griffin him some issues and he’ll notch a win earlier than maybe going again to the analyst’s desk for good.

Greatest guess: Chiesa moneyline (-112)

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Chase Hooper (-1100) vs. Clay Guida (+700)

Hooper is the most important favourite on the cardboard (by a good distance). He regarded sensational in opposition to Viacheslav Borshchev in his final struggle, combining a lot improved putting along with his always-good grappling for a d’arce choke win (see it right here).

Guida heads to UFC 310 with an 18-18 document in UFC. If he loses on Saturday, he may have probably the most losses in UFC historical past (he’s at the moment tied with Jeremy Stephens and Andrei Arlovski).

He’s misplaced his final two fights. And it’s as a result of his age has began to out-pace his preventing model. He doesn’t have sufficient left within the fuel tank to terrorize opponents with fixed stress.

I feel Hooper will take him down and provides him that document breaking loss, in all probability by submission (Eleven of Guida’s 24 professional losses are by submission).

There’s solely the moneyline and spherical whole (1.5) obtainable on this match-up.

Greatest guess: Chase Hooper moneyline (-1100)

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Kennedy Nzechukwu (-550) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+410)

Nzechukwu walked by Chris Barnett in his Heavyweight debut at UFC 308 in October. A part of that could be as a result of Barnett injured himself throughout his warm-up. Even so, Nzechukwu regarded very sharp and pacey and like he may do some harm on this division.

Brzeski, in the meantime, has regarded terrible in UFC, going 1-4. He was completed by Mick Parkin in spherical one again in July (see it right here).

Greatest guess: Underneath 1.5 rounds (+120)

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UFC 310 Lengthy Photographs!

Right here’s a few lengthy photographs for these of us who wish to put somewhat on one thing which may include an enormous return.

3-pick parlay: Alexander Volkov, Themba Gorimbo, Michael Chiesa (+1130)

Volkov is the most important threat on this parlay. Gorimbo ought to have a simple time with Luque. And the general public are betting exhausting on Chiesa proper now. Gane is a very robust opponent, however Volkov has proven some nice late profession enchancment and his win over Pavlovich is an efficient blueprint to comply with in opposition to Gane.

Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi – Battle to Finish in Final 10 seconds of any spherical (+4000)

I simply really feel like these two have some good struggle chemistry and we may see a wild brawl right here. I feel each these guys are the sort to chew down on the mouth piece and go for broke within the closing seconds. If that occurs right here, somebody may find yourself going to sleep simply earlier than the bell.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura – Level to be Deducted – YES (+2000)

Again at it once more! Asakura isn’t used to the cage and he’s coming from a promotion the place you’ll be able to punt a inclined fighter’s head into the entrance row. He may seize the fence or land a foolish knee. These offenses would deserve a degree deduction. Will now we have a ref courageous sufficient to do it, although?

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the whole UFC 310 struggle card proper right here, beginning with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), earlier than the pay-per-view (PPV) major card begin time at 10 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

To take a look at the most recent and best UFC 310: “Pantoja vs. Asakura” information and notes make sure to hit up our complete occasion archive proper right here.