Final week, it was reported by Matt Gelb of The Athletic that the Phils have been giving some thought to buying and selling outfielder Nick Castellanos, infielder Alec Bohm, prospect Justin Crawford or left-hander Ranger Suárez as they give the impression of being to shake up their roster. Monday, Bob Nightengale of USA Immediately stories alongside comparable traces, noting that the membership is making Bohm out there and is predicted to look to free brokers Alex Bregman or Willy Adames in the event that they reach buying and selling Bohm.
Because the Phils look to make some adjustments, they solely have so many avenues. A lot of their place gamers are costly veterans who’re entrenched on the roster, both on account of their efficiency, their contracts or each.
Bohm, then again, continues to be in his arbitration years, slated totally free company after 2026. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz initiatives him for a wage of $8.1M subsequent 12 months and Bohm can be due one other increase for 2026.
On prime of that, his efficiency has been extra good than nice. So far in his profession, he has a batting line of .277/.327/.416. That interprets to a 103 wRC+, indicating he’s been 3% higher than the league-average hitter. He did have a 115 wRC+ in 2024, however in lopsided style, with a 128 within the first half and a 90 within the second. Additionally, most of his injury has been performed with the platoon benefit. He has a profession 135 wRC+ in opposition to lefties in his profession however a subpar 91 wRC+ in opposition to righties.
Defensively, he hasn’t been nice total, although he has proven indicators of enchancment. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of -46 over the primary 4 years of his profession however then had him at league common in 2024. Outs Above Common had Bohm in damaging territory from 2020 to 2022 however barely higher than par up to now two years.
Total, he’s been a helpful participant however one thing beneath a star, and both Bregman or Adames might be seen as a transparent improve. Bregman has hit .272/.366/.483 in his profession for a 135 wRC+ and has been a thought of a powerful defender at third base as well. Adames has hit .248/.322/.444 for a 109 wRC+ in his profession whereas offering sturdy shortstop protection, however he’s reportedly keen to maneuver to different infield positions. Most shortstops are able to transferring to different spots on the infield pretty easily, so it’s doable the Phils would anticipate Adames to offer higher glovework than Bohm, despite the fact that it will be a brand new place for him.
Enacting these strikes would have problems. Bohm’s modest projected wage is much lower than what Bregman or Adames are prone to earn on their respective contracts. MLBTR predicted Bregman for $182M and Adames for $160M over six years, each for common annual values within the $26M-27M vary.
The payroll might be a notable story for the Phils this offseason. Chairman John Middleton has mentioned he expects payroll to go up, nevertheless it already has, in a approach. RosterResource initiatives the membership for a payroll of $263M subsequent 12 months, which is $15M increased than 2024 earlier than they’ve even made any strikes.
Their $282M aggressive steadiness tax quantity is already projected to be above the third tier of penalization. As a third-time payor, which means they’re already a 95% tax on any cash they add as much as the ultimate line of $301M. Something they add past that line would have a 110% tax charge.
Swapping in Bregman or Adames for Bohm would make these numbers go up, nevertheless it appears the Phils have at the very least some hope of constructing up the distinction elsewhere. Nightengale notes that they’ve tried to make use of Bohm and Crawford to pry Garrett Crochet free from the White Sox. Crochet had an enormous breakout in 2024, tossing 146 innings with a 3.58 earned run common, 35.1% strikeout charge, 5.5% stroll charge and 45.1% floor ball charge.
That efficiency will make Crochet very talked-about on the commerce market, however so will his wage. Since he spent the early elements of his profession both injured or understanding of the bullpen, he’s solely projected for a $2.9M wage in 2025, with yet another arb move after that. The Phils have a powerful rotation with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Suárez and Taijuan Walker, however Walker has fallen out of favor with the membership, getting kicked to the bullpen for a time in 2024. Andrew Painter might be a consider 2025 however he’s an enormous unknown since he nonetheless hasn’t made his main league debut and is getting back from a protracted Tommy John surgical procedure layoff.
It could clearly be an exquisite sequence of chess strikes if the Phillies may use Bohm so as to add an affordable ace to their rotation, maybe discovering a option to unload the 2 years and $36M left on Walker’s contract, after which use the fee financial savings to get a star like Bregman or Adames to interchange Bohm at third.
Nonetheless, doing all of that might require the settlement of different groups. Bohm’s commerce worth gained’t be that prime on account of his aforementioned deficiencies. Nightengale provides that the Sox are frightened by Bohm’s efficiency within the second half of 2024. He additionally wouldn’t have a lot worth to the Sox anyway, since his management window is so quick. After Chicago’s record-breaking loss tally in 2024, it’s laborious to examine them returning to competition in Bohm’s two remaining years of membership management. The Phils might need to incorporate some extra prospect expertise to get a deal performed, which they won’t need to do proper now, given how a lot of the roster is crammed with costly veterans.
A far less complicated final result for Bregman would simply be to re-sign with the Astros, the place he has spent his complete profession to this point. It’s a far less complicated match, and the 2 sides seemingly have had mutual curiosity in signing a brand new deal for years, however nothing has come collectively to this point.
It appears there could be a little bit of a niche when it comes to the financials, with Nightengale reporting that Houston desires Bregman again on a deal of about $156M over six years, however Bregman is trying to get to the $200M line. Jon Heyman of The New York Publish reported final week that the Astros have made a suggestion to Bregman. It’s unknown what they placed on the desk, however the truth that he hasn’t but accepted it means that it wasn’t as much as his expectations. Common supervisor Dana Brown has recommended the membership would possibly should be inventive with the price range this offseason, however proprietor Jim Crane has recommended there’s cash out there for the best gamers, and all indicators have pointed to Bregman being the membership’s highest precedence.
Bregman has additionally been related to the Tigers and Crimson Sox up to now week, with the latter membership contemplating a transfer to first base for Rafael Devers, to be able to accommodate Bregman. Adames has additionally been related to the Crimson Sox, along with the Astros, Atlanta, Blue Jays and Giants. Each gamers rejected qualifying gives and can be topic to related penalties, except they re-sign with their respective 2024 golf equipment.
For the Phils, since they paid the CBT in 2024, they must forfeit $1M of worldwide bonus pool house in addition to their second- and fifth-best picks within the upcoming draft in the event that they signal a participant that rejected a qualifying provide. The Astros wouldn’t forfeit something, other than the compensation decide they stand to obtain if Bregman goes elsewhere, which might come after the fourth spherical of the upcoming draft.
